On Tuesday, July 10, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff told the Chicago Tribune editorial board that he had a "gut feeling" that terrorists were planning attacks this summer.

For expressing this thought, Chertoff has come under a deluge of criticism, ranging from House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) to a mob of pundits, critics and comedians who are either decrying his statement, dismissing it, or making fun of it.

For my part, I'm finally relieved to know that Chertoff in fact has "gut feelings." Previously, I had the distinct impression he never did.

Remember something: At the cabinet level, "gut feelings" are not mere indigestion. They're a distillation and synthesis of intelligence, briefings, experience, knowledge and educated guesses. Cops get gut feelings about suspects, hunters about animals, prosecuting attorneys about criminals. Homeland security professionals should get them about terrorists and hurricanes.

If someone as controlled and restrained as Chertoff says he has a "gut feeling" about a potential terrorist attack this summer, instead of condemning him, we should listen carefully and be alert. I, for one, am grateful he expressed his concerns in public.

Chertoff's gut feeling reminds me of another summer warning that came based on a hunch: CIA Director John McCone's "gut feeling" that the Soviets were up to something in Cuba in the summer of 1962. Despite resistance from his own top analysts, despite the indifference of White House officials and despite the fact that he spoke in person to President John F. Kennedy twice, McCone's hunch was dismissed until U-2 photographs in September proved that the Soviets had moved offensive missiles into Cuba. McCone's "gut feeling" was a combination of intuition, intelligence and knowledge - and history proved him right.

Furthermore, it doesn't take massive evidence to remind one that the summer - and August in particular - is always a prime time for mischief and disaster. Bad guys count on officials being on vacation or distracted. Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in August; the coup against Mikhail Gorbachev was attempted in August, and Hurricane Katrina struck in August - when the president was on a month-long vacation in Crawford, Texas. I could probably find more examples going back in history. If I had my way, I would raise the terror alert to orange every August on principle.

So I think we owe a debt of gratitude to Chertoff and his gut. And if he has this feeling again I hope he won't think twice in expressing it. Better he should do that than taking two antacids and going back to sleep.