Why did the immigration bill fail?

It’s not hard to discern: The basic reason had little to do with policy but everything to do with politics. Simply put, when lawmakers asked, “What’s in it for me?” They didn’t get very reassuring answers.

What were members of Congress being offered in this immigration reform bill?

They weren't getting any pork for their districts. This wasn't a "Christmas tree" bill, hung with goodies for everyone. What's more, the president couldn't provide federal spending or benefits, given that he's trying to hold the line on spending and just about the entire federal budget is being poured into the rat hole of Iraq.

They weren't getting any political benefit. Illegal immigrants don't vote, so they weren't about to express their gratitude at election time. The firebrands on the left and right were going to vote and organize against any members who supported the compromise, so there was certainly no benefit there--indeed, that way lay only pain and heartbreak.

There was simply no benefit to supporting a moderate, centrist, compromise position and there was every disincentive.

As other pundits will no doubt point out in the days ahead, this was a significant blow to President George W. Bush. He is so crippled and discredited that voting for his initiatives won't produce any benefits for professional politicians of either party. His words carry no weight and his standing in his own party is fading fast. Having worked hard to cripple the moderate political center over the past six years he now has no center on which to rely when he needs one for a centrist position.

What does this mean for homeland security?

It means continued policy drift until after the 2008 election. Nonetheless, the Secure Border Initiative will continue to function, SBInet will continue to be erected and the Border Patrol will continue to expand as planned.

It means a patchwork of immigration enforcement around the country as states and localities pursue their own international policies, everything from arrests and expulsions to sanctuary cities where illegal immigrants can go.

It means a further crippling of federal leadership across the board and increased independence by states and municipalities.

It means that immigration reform and border enforcement become presidential political issues to be exploited over the next year and a half.

It may mean that the presidential veto threat to the homeland security appropriations bill may turn out to be hollow and Congress may pass its 6 percent increase despite presidential threats. Homeland security, at least, provides benefits to those who vote for it.

If this results in a sensible, productive, further national debate on America's attitude toward immigrants, the past month's efforts will not have been in vain.

However, don't hold your breath.