Should a Category 3 hurricane hit New York City, 100 to 150 mph winds would turn Times Square into a war zone—anything not tied down would turn into a weapon. High winds would create a vacuum effect throughout the streets, windows in the Empire State Building and other high-rises would explode and shatter, sending razor-sharp debris raining onto the streets and anyone passing by. Storm surges would overtake Coney Island, and “America’s Playground” would be largely under water. The Hudson River could cause flooding all the way up to 14th Street, and subway tunnels would be flooded with damaging salt water. Little Italy, Chinatown, Wall Street and other downtown areas would be devastated.

All that combined, according to The Weather Channel experts, such a storm could surpass Hurricane Katrina as the largest natural disaster ever to hit the United States. In fact, New York City has been named the third most vulnerable city in the entire nation to hurricane hazards—following only Miami and New Orleans.

Many weather experts think this region is due for a whopper of a storm, although there’s nothing on the radar so far that indicates this will be the year it happens.

“It’s like a baseball player when baseball season’s starting—if they haven’t had a hit 15 times at bat, it’s time for a hit. It’s the same thing for hurricanes. … We really haven’t had a major hurricane in New York since 1938,” said Tom Downs, director of Expert Weather Investigations. “I remember my mother always remembering that and insisting there was a big hurricane here because the wind was strong,” and that was only on the tip of Long Island, he continued. “If they thought that was bad … then wait until a big storm comes.”

“It’s an important thing for people to realize—although hurricanes are quite infrequent, they have catastrophic consequences” in the New York-New Jersey region, said Nicholas Coch, a professor at Queens College and an expert on northern hurricanes. “A Category 3 up here is the equivalent of a 4 in the South.”

That’s because northern hurricanes move twice as fast as southern ones once they pass Georgia. Winds on the east side of the storm are accentuated as they move over water—and the winds are moving so fast that the colder northern waters don’t offer any protection. The physical geographical intersection of New York and New Jersey pushes all of the water from the continental shelf into a deadly right angle. “This is the absolutely, positively worst place for a Category 3 to make a strike in terms of storm surge,” Coch said.

If such a storm ever hits this area, protecting the 8 million people living in New York City and its five burroughs would prove to be the biggest challenge. Authorities’ first priority would be to evacuate the estimated 3.3 million living in low-lying or otherwise vulnerable areas. Those who can’t fit into the city’s shelters would have to fend for themselves.

Historical perspective

The last Category 3 storm to hit the New York area was the “Long Island Express.” The storm moved northwest from the tropical Atlantic and made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane, moving 60 to 70 mph over Long Island and Connecticut on Sept. 21, 1938. Some Long Islanders thought they were seeing a fog bank—in fact, it was a 30-foot storm surge. Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts measured sustained winds of 121 mph with gusts to 183 mph. Storm surges of 10 to 12 feet inundated portions of the coast from Long Island and Connecticut eastward to southeastern Massachusetts. Heavy rains produced river flooding, most notably along the Connecticut River. That storm struck with little warning and was responsible for 600 deaths and $308 million in damage.

Hurricane Belle, a Category 1 storm, hit western Long Island in August of 1976 before moving northeast and losing its tropical character over New England. It inflicted $100 million in damage. Hurricane Gloria first passed over Cape Hatteras, NC, on Sept. 27, 1985, as a Category 3 storm. Moving at more than 30 mph, it made landfall again over southern Long Island as a Category 2. Economic losses were estimated at $900 million. It was the 13th costliest and the 16th most intense hurricane at the time to make US landfall in the 20th century.

North Carolina bears the brunt of most storms coming north along the coast, but if a system makes it as far north as New York, Long Island usually shoulders most of the impact. Manhattan proper is a little more protected because it’s tucked away from the ocean’s direct coast.

As long as the right side of a hurricane faces away from Manhattan, the threat of serious catastrophic damage is lessened. But if a hurricane were to move northwest from the Atlantic Ocean into the New Jersey coast and directly hit the area of Long Branch, NJ, or Asbury Park, NJ, massive flooding would occur. More often than not, people don’t anticipate the resulting storm surges, but they can be deadly.

“The worst-case scenario for New York City is for the center of the hurricane to go over Monmouth County, New Jersey, because that puts the right side right over us—the right side is the killer side,” Coch said. A Category 3 storm moving in this path would “pretty much be moving a lot of the Atlantic Ocean onto land … anything below Canal Street would be under water,” he added.

Most hurricanes do not move in that path. But climatologists and emergency response officials at all levels are still making sure they are prepared.

Plan and prepare

In 2008, the Atlantic Basin will see 13 named storms before hurricane season is over, according to closely followed predictions from Colorado State University’s Philip Klotzbach and William Gray released in December. The basin will experience seven hurricanes, three of them intense, according to the predictions. There is a 37 percent chance a Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane could make landfall along the East Coast, including peninsular Florida; the average for last century was 31 percent. In comparison, there’s a 36 percent chance a storm that strong could land along the Gulf coast.

Hurricane Katrina caused many cities and regions to re-evaluate their own preparedness and evacuation plans. New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg in June 2006 unveiled the Big Apple’s emergency Coastal Storm Plan, which is updated every year. A team of more than 30,000 volunteers would man shelters that could hold 600,000 of the estimated 3.3 million people who may have to be evacuated from the most vulnerable, low-lying areas.

“It’s a plan that can be scaled, depending on the storm, but it’s a worst-case scenario of a Category 4 hitting New York City,” NYC Office of Emergency Management (OEM) Deputy Press Secretary Chris Gilbride told HSToday.

As for whether New Yorkers are mentally ready for such a disaster, Gilbride said recent polling by the city shows people are becoming more prepared, “but there’s still a long way to go.”

OEM and the City College of New York hired Kognito Interactive, based in New York City, to create an online simulation course that engages volunteers in a realistic narrative of a six-day hurricane event at a virtual shelter. The idea is to get volunteers used to dealing with a host of likely scenarios that may arise at a shelter, and to keep people moving in and out as needed to maintain order.

“Everything that they are doing is very well thought out ... lessons they’ve learned from Hurricane Katrina,” said Ron Goldman, Kognito’s chief executive officer. “This was about making them confident they could do this, reducing their stress in being a center and helping in a center … and becoming comfortable with the structure and their role and to be able to understand and practice the type of skill and the type of roles they will need in that type of event.”

OEM’s website includes information on what people should keep in their “go bags,” which are emergency packs residents can take with them if they have to evacuate their homes or workplace. Bags should include copies of important documents in a waterproof and portable container, extra keys, small-bill cash and credit cards, bottled water and child-care supplies or other special items. They also want residents to know ahead of time whether they live in a hurricane evacuation zone—a zone finder is on their website along with directions for those who live in those areas.

The city this year held a post-disaster housing design competition for ideas on ways to temporarily house people should their residences become unlivable. Because of the lack of space, the city simply can’t put New Orleans-like trailers throughout certain areas. The 10 best designs are awarded $10,000 each to develop their plans.

New Jersey’s Office of Emergency Management has a guide to hurricane preparedness on its website that includes evacuation routes by county, actions to take before and after a hurricane hits, the dangers of flash floods, how to prepare families for a disaster and other pertinent information. People living along the Jersey shore need to pay especial attention to weather systems, particularly the storm surges.

“Have a kit, prepare and plan,” said New Jersey OEM spokesman Nicholas Morici. “Even though it might not happen—a hurricane could happen or could not happen, we want to be prepared. …We always plan for the Category 3—that’s our job. We don’t let our guard down. If we did, that would be our fault.”

Another lesson from Katrina is that the disabled cannot fend for themselves. New Jersey is working with its 21 counties and 500-plus municipalities on an inter-connected database that includes information on special-needs residents—whether they are elderly, have disabilities or are in need of other assistance—so they can be located and evacuated during an emergency. Shelters would be set up throughout local areas, as well.

The key, he emphasized, is to plan, plan, plan.

“Communicate not only with those in your home, your family, but your workplace,” Morici said. “Most importantly—remember ‘safety first.’ Listen to your first responders, your emergency managers—follow their lead.”