HS counterterror, first responder roles suffer

WASHINGTON, DC, NOV. 26 – As concerns rise over intelligence indicating Al Qaeda may try to smuggle terrorists with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) across the Mexican border onto US soil, conservative pundits from Bill O'Reilly to Democratic members of Congress are calling for deployment of the Army National Guard to protect America’s borders.

“One of the most shocking things is just how porous the border is even after 9/11,” Rep. Jim Turner, Ranking Minority member of the House Select Committee on Homeland Security recently said. “It's hard to contend we're making America safe if we know the southern border is still open and can be used as an access point for Al Qaeda operatives.”

That the nation’s borders leak like a sieve is no secret. Classified CIA intelligence reports made available to HSToday show the spy agency was concerned about terrorists being smuggled into the US from Mexico as long ago as 1988. At that time, according to one report, the CIA was tracking a handful of known terrorists from the Middle East to Panama, where they were supposed to join other terrorists apparently already in Panama, all of whom were to be smuggled into the US through Mexico.

There’s a big problem, though, with protecting not only the borders, but with being able to adequately respond to catastrophic terrorism on the homefront. Guard and Reserve forces necessary to carry out such missions are dwindling due to their deployment to Iraq, while nondeployed Guard and Reserve units have had their manpower and resources denuded to supply deployed units fighting the war on terror abroad.

National Guard and Reserve units now make up more than 40 percent of US troops in Iraq, and depending on how long it takes to adequately secure the Arabic nation, many more Guard and Reservists may have to be sent there. Pentagon officials say Guard and Reservists may account for a full half of military forces in Iraq in 2005. More Army and Marine reservists have died in Iraq since the start of the offensive against insurgents began in Fallujah than in any comparable period since American forces entered Iraq in March 2003.

Former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura recently complained that Guard deployments are “jeopardizing homeland security” by leaving state governors “woefully short-handed,” pointing out that the men and women who join the Guard have a higher tendency to be law enforcers, fire fighters and emergency medical providers.

The Government Accountability Office (GAO), Congress’ investigative arm, warned lawmakers last week that “the cumulative effect of these personnel and equipment transfers is that the readiness of nondeployed forces [domestically] has declined, challenging the Army to continue to provide ready Guard forces for future missions.”

GAO emphasized that “while the Army and the Air National Guard have supported the nation’s homeland security needs by providing personnel and equipment for unanticipated missions [abroad], the Guard’s preparedness to perform the homeland defense and civil support missions that may be needed in the future is unknown.”

The findings reveal that US policymakers are poorly positioned "to manage the risks to the nation's homeland security," GAO said.

GAO disclosed that “state officials have expressed concern about the Guard’s preparedness to undertake state missions, including supporting homeland security missions, given the increase in overseas deployments and the shortages of personnel and equipment among the remaining Guard units.”

Senior US military commanders in Iraq said over the weekend it is increasingly likely they will need yet another increase in combat forces in order to quell remaining pockets of Al Qaeda-backed insurgents in the country.

Over the past week, as military officials took a hard look at the forces needed to combat a resilient insurgency and to oversee the massive reconstruction effort in Fallujah - demands that senior military officials say will tie up a substantial number of Marines and Army troops for weeks, and perhaps months – the Pentagon has come to realize there’s a significant gap in desired troop strength.

The number of extra troops needed is still being reviewed, but most officials say it’s likely to be the equivalent of several battalions.

Lt. Gen. John Sattler, Commander of the First Marine Expeditionary Force, had warned last Thursday that Fallujah's security may depend for some time on US forces. Sattler made clear the US military may have to remain in the city to prevent it from falling back into terrorists’ hands. And it could. A seven-page classified intelligence analysis prepared by Sattler's unit warns Fallujah will likely again become a stronghold for Al Qaeda-linked insurgents as soon as US forces pull out. It predicts insurgents will continue to grow in number, wage guerrilla attacks, and try to foment unrest among Fallujah's returning residents.

"Our assessment is that the insurgency remains viable," a senior military intelligence officer in Baghdad told The Washington Post this weekend. "One of the things we see the insurgents doing is moving to areas where we don't have a lot of presence."

Violence surged through central and northern Iraq on Saturday as a tenacious insurgency led by Sunni Arabs kept up relentless assaults in a string of major cities, from Ramadi to Fallujah to Baghdad.

With Iraqi elections looming and violence expected to escalate – Al Qaeda and Iran are calling for further uprisings to stifle the elections – US commanders have had to commit additional forces in cities like Fallujah and Samarra. In recent weeks, US commanders also had to obligate thousands of additional soldiers and Marines into trouble spots throughout the Sunni triangle. It took 12,000 Marines and soldiers and some 2,500 Iraqi forces two weeks just to flush out the rebels who stayed in Fallujah to battle US forces.

Military analysts are worried Fallujah, Mosul, and other cities inside the Sunni Triangle could become “the new Beirut.” With most of the foreign terrorists who battled alongside Iraqi “insurgents” in Fallujah having left the city before or in the early stages of the assault by US-led forces, Fallujah and other cities could indeed become a quagmire reminiscent of Beirut and requiring a significant US military presence, which in turn would put pressure on strained forces elsewhere in Iraq, according to Lt. Gen. Lance Smith, deputy commander of Central Command.

Additionally, military and intelligence sources say hundreds of “terrorists” from Fallujah have relocated in Mosul, where US forces are beginning a campaign to put down the insurgency there. Fomenting these terror-backed uprisings, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, called on Arab nations and Muslims to protest the US military operation in Fallujah. US intelligence says Iran is supplying arms, supplies and safe havens for rebels in Iraq.