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Friday, February 14, 2025

2025 Homeland Security Threat Forecast: American Disaster Resilience Begins at the Border

At the beginning of a second Trump presidency, our nation is at a crossroads in more ways than one. Not only is America facing the unique challenge of increased frequency and severity of natural disasters; we also must confront the threat from nation states and transnational criminal organizations that threaten our critical infrastructure, especially in our border communities and our ports of entry. When natural disasters and man-made threats combine, they point to a likely and major vulnerability in our homeland security – severe weather events impacting American port and border communities. An honest 2025 threat assessment must consider the likelihood of a multi-faceted event of this type that results in compounding impacts throughout the nation. 

Let’s first address the nation’s vulnerability to weather hazards in border communities. In 2022, the US Census Bureau found that residents along the US-Mexico border live with more disaster risk factors than the nation as a whole. Many have jobs supporting the controlled flow of goods and people across our borders and through our ports. When border communities face an elevated and distinct risk to weather disasters due to low levels of individual and household resilience, a major disaster can compound to negatively impact vital economic activities along our border and within our ports of entry. 

How vital are these communities to our economy? The March 2024 Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse is estimated to have cost the American economy $15 million each day of port closures. While that incident was classified as a technological hazard, we know severe weather events that hit port communities have outsized economic impacts on the rest of the nation. A closer look at the geographic location of the five largest water ports in America results in a near perfect alignment to some of the most devastating natural disasters of the past 20 years. 

Rank by Volume  U.S. Port  State  Recent Major Disaster  Cost 
1  Houston  Texas  Hurricane Beryl, 2024  $32B 
2  South Louisiana  Louisiana  Hurricane Ida, 2021  $76.5B 
3  Corpus Christi  Texas  Hurricane Harvey, 2017  $144B 
4  New York and New Jersey Port Newark  New York and New Jersey  Hurricane Sandy, 2010  $80B 
5  New Orleans  Louisiana  Hurricane Katrina, 2005  $180B 

 

With this threat assessment, let’s not play the blame game for our nation’s lack of investment in resilient infrastructure or our decades-long immigration woes. Let’s not settle for an either/or investment, pitting disaster resilience priorities against increased border security. To the contrary, let’s agree there is a dangerous cocktail brewing in our nation’s port and border communities and the time to act is now. Thankfully, sweeping investments in the disaster resilience of these communities may help address both risks and ameliorate their compounding impacts. In 2025, the call to action for practitioners in emergency management, law enforcement, and border security must be to increase collaboration in addressing the socio-economic and weather-related risks that continue to be on the rise, especially in US port and border communities. Doing so is our best chance at overcoming the complex disaster events that lie ahead and building a more resilient nation for all. 

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Matt Lyttle
Matt Lyttle
Matt Lyttle is a Director of the National Security Segment at Guidehouse. He supports federal clients in strategy, transformation, and communications projects. Before joining Guidehouse, he was Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee (HSGAC) staff, where he developed legislation on disaster resilience and emergency management. Matt has held several positions within FEMA’s National Preparedness Directorate, including as the Acting Deputy Director of Individual and Community Preparedness. In those roles, he designed and launched several FEMA programs aimed at building Private Sector preparedness, such as FEMA’s Ready Business program and Organizations Preparing for Emergency Needs (OPEN). Matt has deployed to multiple disasters, including Hurricanes Harvey and Maria, as a FEMA Intergovernmental Affairs Liaison and Private Sector Liaison. Matt is a Returned Peace Corps Volunteer, serving in Nicaragua and witnessing long-term effects of insufficient hazard mitigation throughout his service. He continues to build resilience in Latin America by introducing community preparedness initiatives to Bolivia, Chile, and Mexico. He is a Security Fellow in the Truman National Security Project focusing on the intersection of climate change and national security. Matt lives in Fairfax County, Virginia where he volunteers on local land use and planning task forces.

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