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Friday, March 21, 2025

2025 Homeland Security Threat Forecast: Erosion of Trust

The greatest threat to our country isn’t what you think it is. It isn’t foreign powers, natural disasters, or the threat of war. The greatest threat is us.  

According to a recent Pew Study, only 22% of Americans say they trust the government in Washington to do what is right “just about always” (2%) or “most of the time” (21%). This is nothing new—public trust in the government has been eroding for many years. When the Pew Research Center began polling on this issue in 1958, trust in the government was at a high of nearly 80%. It’s been falling ever since. The escalation of the Vietnam War in the 1960s and 70s, the Watergate scandal, and the energy crisis of the 1970s all played their part in the erosion of trust. And in recent years, the collapse of trust has continued, spurred on by the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic and contentious presidential elections. 

Is the first sign of a failing government the erosion of the public’s trust in that government? Is a government that only half of the country trusts another sign? Either way, to slightly modify the song lyrics made famous by Roberta Flack, the erosion of trust is “killing us softly.” 

In our interconnected, 24-hour-a-day world, information flows like a torrent of water through our fingers. The phones we carry in our pockets provide us with endless streams of input. We are constantly bombarded with information: emails from every place we’ve shopped, updates from friends, uninvited phishing attacks trying to steal our information, and alerts from supposedly reliable online news sources touting the latest “true,” fast-breaking story. The information is delivered faster than we can process or evaluate it, and we often hit like or share without thinking twice.  

But we must do a better job of not believing everything we read on the internet. Many of these “true” stories can be traced back to foreign powers trying to recast a story to their benefit. The distribution of misinformation is planned and deliberate. Because it’s all accessible from the phones we constantly carry, we are never more than an arm’s length from the constant stream of information. With a single click, we can become complicit in sharing misinformation.    

The greatest threat is us, armed with our weaponized phones. 

Misinformation and disinformation attacks, both obvious and obscured, seem to be at pandemic levels not only in public safety spaces, but throughout all levels of government and the media. These attacks contribute significantly to the lack of trust in the government. 

In the public safety and emergency management arena, trust is paramount. We cannot accomplish our mission of helping people before, during, and after disasters without trust. When a community is impacted by a disaster, it is crucial for public safety and emergency management agencies to be welcomed into the community. Our ability to deliver critical disaster services, funding, materials, and, most of all, a sense of hope to the community, is directly correlated to the amount of trust the community has in those who show up to help.  

Unfortunately, the lack of trust in emergency management and public safety institutions has severely undermined disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. Common factors contributing to this distrust include: 

  • Historical Inequities: Disproportionate impacts of disasters on marginalized communities have created long-standing distrust. 
  • Perceived Ineffectiveness: Delayed or insufficient response to past disasters has damaged our collective credibility. 
  • Communication Failures: Inconsistent or unclear messaging during emergencies has led to confusion and skepticism. 
  • Disinformation: False narratives have eroded public confidence in official guidance during crises. 
  • Political Polarization: Distrust in government institutions that stems from political disagreements may spill over into emergency management and public safety agencies, regardless of their neutrality. 

The erosion of trust in government isn’t inevitable. This is a challenge we must confront head-on. Rebuilding trust requires deliberate actions from both government agencies and individuals. We must move beyond cynicism and passive consumption of information. Instead, we need to foster a culture of accountability, transparency, and cooperation. This means embracing thoughtful communication strategies, combating disinformation with precision, and recognizing the humanity and dedication of those working tirelessly to serve the public. Without trust, even the best emergency response systems falter.  

It’s time to act. Here are three strategies you can implement today to combat the erosion of trust in the government. 

Slow Down. When you hear a story that doesn’t sound right, or that immediately induces outrage, take a deep breath and pause a moment. Don’t immediately react. Beware of reacting at all on social media. Instead, do your research. Check multiple sources. Fact-check the story, the tweet, the post. Take some time to confirm the information, and in the meantime, give the benefit of the doubt to your neighbor.   

Avoid the Guilt-by-Association Syndrome. Don’t automatically assume government officials are corrupt, lazy, or incompetent. I’ve worked in local, state, and federal government, both in civilian service and the military. From first-hand experience, I can tell you that the great majority of government employees are hardworking, well-meaning people. Just like you and me, they are showing up each day to try to make their community and nation a better place. 

Create Disinformation Countermeasures. On a personal level, if you hear falsehoods, suffocate them with silence. The more attention and interaction a story gets, the more it gets shared—regardless of whether it’s true. Engaging with untrue stories can perpetuate misinformation. If you are in government or the private sector, consider establishing a rapid response team to monitor and debunk false information during disasters. Partner with media outlets and social media platforms to amplify accurate information and reduce the spread of disinformation.  

If you are in a position to distribute information, make transparent and consistent communication a key value of your organization. Timely and transparent updates can help quell disinformation before it has a chance to spread. Strive for real-time updates during a disaster, and use multiple communication channels, including social media, SMS alerts, and traditional media. Use plain language messaging to ensure that all communication is clear, culturally appropriate, and accessible in multiple languages. Remember that the average American reads at a 7th– or 8th-grade level, so keep it simple. And lastly, when you make a mistake (which is inevitable), acknowledge it. Publicly owning up to and explaining errors will help you maintain credibility. 

Rebuilding trust in the government isn’t a task for one agency or sector—it’s a shared responsibility. By empowering citizens to seek truth, fostering genuine communication between communities and officials, and combating misinformation head-on, we can begin to reverse the dangerous erosion of trust. In times of crisis, trust isn’t a luxury; it’s the cornerstone of survival. We must act now to ensure that when the next disaster strikes, we are ready—not just with supplies and plans, but with the confidence and cooperation of those we serve. 

Peter Gaynor
Peter Gaynor
On January 11, 2021, Peter T. Gaynor was designated as the Acting Secretary of Homeland Security. Mr. Gaynor was officially confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be FEMA Administrator on January 14, 2020. Previously, he served as the Senate-confirmed Deputy FEMA Administrator. Since his selection by the President, Mr. Gaynor led FEMA’s response to over 300 presidentially declared emergencies and major disasters. Mr. Gaynor oversaw the agency’s close collaboration with federal, state, local, tribal and territorial partners, making it possible to serve millions of Americans in their time of need through locally executed, state managed and federally supported disaster response. During the historic year of 2020, Mr. Gaynor oversaw FEMA’s first ever operational response to a nationwide pandemic while simultaneously responding to a record amount of disasters. As a member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, Mr. Gaynor directed FEMA’s operational coordination for the whole-of-Government response to COVID-19. During this time, FEMA deployed over 5,300 staff and obligated over $57 billion from the Disaster Relief Fund in support of the nationwide pandemic response. In 2020, Mr. Gaynor led the federal response to the most active Atlantic hurricane season in history, with a record of 30 named storms. Mr. Gaynor also directed the response to a historic West Coast wildfire season, resulting in 78 Fire Management Assistance Grant declarations to assist governments in fighting wildfires. As Administrator, Mr. Gaynor oversaw FEMA’s award of the agency’s largest infrastructure project grants in history to assist with Puerto Rico’s ongoing recovery from hurricanes Irma and Maria. Gaynor has more than 13 years of experience in emergency management. Prior to coming to FEMA, Gaynor served as the Director of Rhode Island’s Emergency Management Agency (RIEMA) in 2015. During that time, RIEMA responded to numerous small and large disasters, including one presidentially declared disaster and at least seven pre-existing active federal disasters. Gaynor oversaw response and recovery efforts to blizzards, floods, tropical storms and public health emergencies. He also coordinated evacuations, mass care, special events, and school safety. Gaynor served as the policy advisor to Governor Gina Raimondo on emergency management matters. He was also the Chair of the State Interoperable Communications Committee, the State Emergency Response Commission, and was Vice Chair of the State Emergency Management Advisory Committee. Additionally, he served as a Commissioner and a member for the Program Review Committee for the Emergency Management Accreditation Program (EMAP), which fosters excellence and accountability in emergency management and homeland security programs across the nation. From March 2008 to December 2014, Gaynor served as the Director of the Providence Emergency Management Agency (PEMA) and Office of Homeland Security, where he was the only Certified Emergency Manager assigned as a municipal emergency manager in Rhode Island. He was responsible for ensuring the planning and operations of the agency, coordinating community exercise programs, managing the Emergency Operations Center (EOC), and advising the Mayor of the City of Providence on local government emergency operations. During his tenure at RIEMA and PEMA, Gaynor oversaw multiple response and recovery operations and managed numerous federally declared disasters. Under Pete Gaynor’s leadership, in 2010, PEMA became the first municipality in the United States to receive accreditation from EMAP. In 2017, Rhode Island became the 36th state to be EMAP-accredited, making Gaynor the first emergency management director awarded EMAP accreditation at the local and state levels. In January 2018, under Gaynor’s direction, Rhode Island was the first state designated as StormReady by the National Weather Service. Gaynor was awarded the International Association of Emergency Managers USA & Global Partners in Preparedness Award for Operation SMART EXIT, a planned full-scale evacuation of several high-rise commercial buildings in Downtown Providence, RI. Prior to his experience as an emergency manager, Gaynor served for 26 years as an enlisted Marine and Infantry Officer in the United States Marine Corps. During his tenure in the Marines, he was assigned as the Executive Officer responsible for the security of Presidential Retreat, Camp David; assigned as the Head of Plans, Policy, & Operations at the Headquarters Marine Corps during the September 11, 2001 attacks; and deployed in support of Iraqi Freedom with the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force where he coordinated combat operations in the Al-Anbar Province of Iraq for Multi-National and Marine forces. Gaynor received a bachelor’s degree in history from Rhode Island College and a master’s degree in national security and strategic studies from the Naval War College in Newport, RI. He is also a graduate of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security’s Executive Leaders Program.

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