35 F
Washington D.C.
Tuesday, February 11, 2025

2025 Homeland Security Threat Forecast: Multidimensional – Physical, Cyber, Information Operations – Threats

The 2025 threat landscape will be more dynamic, complex, and dangerous than ever before, and it boils down to the recent emergence of the newest arrival to the scene that is fundamentally changing threat maps and organization risk considerations in the U.S. and beyond. At the Center for Internet Security (CIS), we call them multidimensional threats, or physical, cyber, and information operations threats operating seamlessly between the physical and digital worlds at internet speeds. 

Beginning in early 2024, state and local law enforcement and election officials began to prepare to deal with a broad range of physical and cyber threats, anticipating that foreign and domestic threat actors would seek to disrupt the upcoming Presidential elections. As it turned out, they were right to be concerned. Throughout the election cycle, state and local communities across the nation experienced sustained levels of cyber and physical threat activity. In the physical domain, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and U.S. Secret Service disrupted several plots, and there were two assassination attempts directed at then-presidential candidate Donald Trump. Internet-enabled bomb threats and swatting calls attempted to disrupt government operations throughout the election cycle — on election day alone over 100 polling sites were targeted for bomb threats, many of them part of a coordinated effort originating abroad. On the cyber front, there were sustained levels of cyberattacks, including ransomware and denial-of-service attacks directed at state and local government information systems. In the world of information operations, foreign threat actors developed and spread artificial intelligence (AI)-generated video and audio content in an attempt to undermine confidence in the election. 

The threats facing our communities are not confined to elections. Since November 5, we have continued to witness government systems targeted by cyber threat actors. Bomb threats, some originating from overseas, have targeted vote tabulation centers and even the homes of appointees of the incoming administration.   

And the violence has continued. A corporate CEO was gunned down in the streets of New York City by an individual motivated by anti-corporate ideological views. Our nation witnessed a school shooting by a 15-year-old female motivated by a blend of ideological views and personal grievances. An ISIS-inspired military veteran born and raised in the United States conducted a vehicle ramming attack in New Orleans that killed and injured dozens of celebrants on New Year’s Day. The sad reality is that, as we enter 2025, local communities are likely to continue to experience these multidimensional threats that emerged so prominently in 2024. 

There is good news. While the threat environment was and continues to be dynamic, complex, and quite frankly dangerous, police chiefs, sheriffs, and state and major urban-area fusion centers have stepped up to the challenge. Despite the danger, law enforcement and election officials ensured that the conduct of the 2024 election withstood the potential of violence and other threat-related activity. This kind of collaboration is continuing across the nation as federal, state, and local governments are working together to prepare and respond to the multidimensional threats they face. They are sharing critical intelligence about threats. They are engaging in multi-disciplinary and multi-agency operational planning, training, and exercises so that they are better prepared to detect, prevent, and respond to incidents with little to no notice. They are establishing redundant crisis communications capabilities ensuring that communications between first responders and the public can be achieved and maintained even when the websites, social media platforms, communications centers, and telecommunications systems facilitating that communication are targeted for cyberattacks. This is the recipe for success the nation will need to keep our communities safe in the days, weeks, and months ahead. 

John Cohen
John Cohen
John D. Cohen currently serves as the Executive Director for the Program for Countering Hybrid Threats at the Center for Internet Security. In that role, he works closely with law enforcement, mental health, and civil society organizations across the Nation to address issues relating to the impact of social media and the Internet on crime, violence, community safety, and constitutional protections. He is also an Adjunct Professor at the Georgetown University Security Studies Program. From January 2021 through April 2022, he served as the Assistant Secretary for Counter-terrorism and Law Enforcement Policy, Coordinator for Counterterrorism and the Senior Official Performing the Duties of the Under Secretary of Intelligence and Analysis at the United States Department of Homeland Security. Prior to his most recent service at DHS, Cohen is also an on-air expert for ABC News on homeland security, terrorism, counter-intelligence, and law enforcement issues. Cohen has four decades of experience in law enforcement, counter-intelligence, and homeland security. He has studied mass casualty attacks and is currently studying the impact of Internet-based communications technologies on crime and homeland/national security. During the Obama Administration he served as the Acting Under-Secretary for Intelligence and Analysis (I&A) and Counterterrorism Coordinator for the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS). During his time at DHS, Mr. Cohen was a direct adviser to the Secretary and he oversaw the development and implementation of a number of high visibility Department-wide crime prevention, counterterrorism, counter-intelligence and border and transportation security initiatives. Mr. Cohen also led the Department’s efforts to establish multi-disciplinary programs focused on: countering violent extremism; preventing and responding to mass casualty/active shooter attacks; improving information sharing; and expanding DHS’ interactions and collaboration with state and local law enforcement organizations, private sector companies and faith-based organizations. During the Administration of George W. Bush, Mr. Cohen served as the Senior Advisor to the Program Manager for the Information Sharing Environment, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, where he authored and coordinated the implementation of key components of the 2007 White House National Strategy for Information Sharing. Mr. Cohen has an extensive background in homeland security and law enforcement operations and policy development. He was Senior Homeland Security Policy Advisor to a number of State and local officials including Governor Mitt Romney of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts and Janet Napolitano, Governor of the State of Arizona. In 2004 he was selected by the National Journal as one of the “100 Key People in Homeland Security.” He was also named “Law Enforcement Person of the Year,” by Law Enforcement News for his work in developing and establishing a national non-emergency number, 3-1-1. During the Clinton Administration, worked closely with drug treatment providers, educators and law enforcement agencies in Maryland, DC, and Virgina while establishing the Washington – Baltimore High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area Program. He also served as an advisor to the Maryland State Government on criminal justice issues and drafted the State’s first homeland security strategy after the attacks of 9-11. He has worked within the private sector and has held a variety of government positions including: Special Agent, Office of Naval Intelligence; Police Detective and Patrol Officer, City of Gardena, CA; Senior Investigator, House Judiciary Committee, U.S. House of Representatives; and Senior Policy Advisor to the Director, Office of National Drug Control Policy, Executive Office of the President of the United States. He is the recipient of a number of awards and commendations including the Drug Enforcement Administration “Administrator’s Award,” The South Bay “Medal of Valor,” and the Department of Homeland Security’s “Distinguished Service Medal.”

Related Articles

Latest Articles