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Tuesday, February 11, 2025

2025 Homeland Security Threat Forecast: Thinking Globally, Acting Locally: Securing America Against Emerging Threats

Imagine rental trucks pulling up to a packed sports event or concert in the United States. Instead of a lone attacker, 30 highly trained militants – veterans of conflict zones like Kandahar, Gaza, or Yemen – emerge, intent on mass devastation. Many may have crossed the southern border undetected. The resulting chaos could leave hundreds dead or injured. 

Meanwhile, over the past four years, U.S. law enforcement has faced declining morale and eroding public trust, exacerbated by divisive political rhetoric. Counterterrorism efforts, once a top national priority, have waned. Programs like “See Something, Say Something” continue to demonstrate success, but diminishing funding for training and preparedness leaves communities exposed to ever-evolving threats. This erosion of trust and preparedness raises a critical question: Are today’s first responders equipped to handle large-scale attacks akin to the 2008 Mumbai siege or Israel’s October 7th tragedy? 

Emerging Threats: The Evolving Landscape 

One of the most pressing threats is the use of drones in terrorist operations. Armed with explosives or biological agents, drones could devastate public gatherings or critical infrastructure. To counter this, the U.S. must urgently modernize counter-drone capabilities, equipping state and local law enforcement with advanced tools to detect and neutralize such threats. 

Alarmingly, many agencies rely on Chinese-manufactured drones for their public safety programs, a significant security risk. Enhancing law enforcement drone capabilities is essential for public and officer safety in 2025 and beyond. However, lawmakers must prioritize funding for secure alternatives produced by American or allied manufacturers to protect critical operations from potential vulnerabilities. 

Influence Campaigns and Digital Radicalization 

Foreign adversaries are increasingly leveraging influence campaigns and deception to undermine trust in U.S. institutions, including law enforcement. These efforts fuel division, erode societal cohesion, and create fertile ground for extremism. Simultaneously, digital platforms provide extremists with powerful tools for propaganda, recruitment, and operational guidance, rapidly transforming online threats into real-world dangers.

Addressing these complex and interconnected challenges demands a comprehensive strategy. Key steps include: 

  • Enhancing Digital Countermeasures: Develop robust systems to disrupt online extremism and disinformation campaigns. 
  • Bolstering Physical Security: Strengthen security measures in public spaces to deter and mitigate potential attacks. 
  • Fostering Collaboration: Build partnerships between government agencies, private industry, and civil society to create a unified and resilient defense. 
  • Reinvestment in first responder training, public awareness initiatives, and modern counterterrorism strategies is critical.  

Ensuring the safety of American citizens requires vigilance, innovation, and a commitment to staying ahead of emerging threats. The stakes are simply too high for complacency. America must act decisively, because our national security depends on it. 

Paul Goldenberg
Paul Goldenberg
Paul Goldenberg spent nearly three decades in law enforcement; from walking a beat in the urban streets of Irvington, New Jersey to serving 10 years as a senior advisor to the Secretary of Homeland Security. For the past two decades, he has worked globally with police agencies across Europe, Scandinavia, the UK and in the Middle East in his capacity as Chief Advisor of Police and International Policing with the Rutgers University Miller Center on Policing and Community Resilience. Prior to that, he worked with the OSCE – the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the largest regional government security org in the world – to develop their first international police training program in domestic terrorism, hate crime and human rights. He is also a Distinguished Visiting Fellow for the University Ottawa PDI for Transnational Security, a senior officer with the Global Consortium of Law Enforcement Training Executives, CEO of Cardinal Point Strategies, and a former senior member of the NJ Attorney’s General Office.

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