Terrorism has consistently remained a significant concern amidst the many challenges the world faces today. While issues such as illegal migration, border security, illicit trade, human trafficking, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and climate change have dominated the agendas of Western governments, none have managed to overshadow the persistent threat of terrorism. Despite evolving security paradigms that highlight emerging threats, such as China’s military and economic expansion, terrorism continues to be a critical issue in Western countries.
The scholars in the United States, in particular, view terrorism as an elevated threat, driven by a combination of factors, including international terrorism from Salafi-jihadist groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda, state-sponsored terrorism from regimes such as Iran’s, and domestic terrorism fueled by home-grown extremists influenced by jihadist ideologies or far-right movements. The complexity of the terrorism issue is further heightened by ongoing debates within the U.S. government regarding the designation of Mexican cartels and international gangs like MS-13 and Tren de Aragua as terrorist organizations. This article leverages data from the Global Terrorism Trends and Analysis Center (GTTAC) to assess the ongoing global threat of terrorism. The analysis focuses on trends from 2018 to 2023, including yearly incident data, tactics, and weapon types. Due to incomplete data for 2024, only yearly and country-specific analyses from that year are included.
The GTTAC, based at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, has been collecting and analyzing data for the U.S. Department of State since 2018. Using the Department of State’s definition of terrorism, which includes intentional violent acts with political, religious, social, or economic objectives targeting non-combatants, GTTAC classifies these incidents as acts of terrorism. The GTTAC database processed over 57,500 terrorist incidents from 2018 to 2024; this data is publicly accessible and downloadable. Data entry for 2024 is ongoing, meaning the total number of incidents may increase. The number of incidents reported annually has ranged from 7,000 to 10,000, as shown in Figure 1 below, with 2020 seeing the highest number. Contrary to expectations, given the quarantines and lockdowns during the pandemic, terrorist organizations remained highly active. The years 2021 and 2022 saw a decline in the number of incidents, while 2023 recorded stable figures. In 2024, the number of terrorist incidents increased by over 15%, primarily due to ongoing attacks by Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) targeting Israel.
In 2024, ISIS and Al-Qaeda remain the most active terrorist groups globally. ISIS-Core conducted over 450 attacks in Syria, while its affiliates in Mozambique, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the Sahel region, and Afghanistan have continued their operations. Al-Qaeda, demonstrating significant opportunism, saw its affiliate, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), successfully seize control of Syria. This marks Al-Qaeda’s second major success, following the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in 2021. The Taliban has re-established its alliance with Al-Qaeda, offering a safe haven for its operatives, some of whom have secured positions within the Afghan government and military. Given these developments, it is likely that Al-Qaeda will further strengthen its presence in Syria under HTS leadership. Consequently, it is imperative to closely monitor developments in both Syria and Afghanistan, as these regions may once again become operational safe havens for Al-Qaeda and its affiliates.
Figure 2 below illustrates the top 10 countries with the highest number of terrorist incidents. Syria ranks first, with over 7,050 attacks recorded between 2018 and 2023, involving more than 80 perpetrators. In 2024, GTTAC documented 1,232 incidents in Syria. The primary groups responsible for these attacks include HTS, ISIS-Core, Turkiye-backed groups, and Iran-backed militia groups. Despite some international approval for the HTS-led government, Syria remains a hotspot for terrorist activity, especially with ISIS-Core’s continued operations. Afghanistan, which ranked second due to nearly 2,000 attacks by the Taliban prior to its takeover in 2021, no longer experiences the same volume of incidents. However, the resurgence of ISIS-Khorasan in the region has reignited concerns, maintaining Afghanistan’s significant potential for terrorist group activity.
The ongoing conflict in the eastern provinces of DRC has contributed to its position as one of the countries with the highest number of terrorist attacks. Active groups such as M23, CODECO, and ISIS-DRC have been responsible for much of this violence. In 2024, GTTAC recorded 746 attacks in DRC. India remains in the top 10 due to the continued activity of jihadist groups in Jammu and Kashmir, as well as the Naxalites (members of the Communist Party of India) in the central regions and separatist groups in the northeastern provinces. GTTAC documented 368 attacks in India in 2024. Iraq, once partially controlled by ISIS, has seen a shift in the balance of power. While ISIS has lost much of its influence in the country, Iran-backed groups have become more organized and active. In 2024, GTTAC recorded 119 attacks in Iraq.
Nigeria has consistently ranked among the top 10 countries with the highest number of terrorist attacks over the past decade. Boko Haram and ISIS-West Africa have been particularly active in the region, expanding their operations into neighboring countries. In 2024, Boko Haram extended its attacks into Cameroon, while ISIS-West Africa broadened its reach into Niger. GTTAC recorded 364 attacks in Nigeria in 2024. Additionally, the Lakurawa group, operating in the northwestern provinces of Nigeria, has gained attention due to its organized attacks and ideological ties to both Al-Qaeda and ISIS. This connection underscores the growing threat posed by these groups. Yemen has also remained on the top 10 list due to the ongoing attacks by the Houthis, who, along with other Iran-backed militia groups, have targeted U.S. and Israeli interests, particularly commercial shipping in the Red Sea subsequent to the October 7 attacks. GTTAC recorded 438 incidents in Yemen in 2024, primarily attributed to the Houthis. Although Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has maintained a relatively low profile, the group has continued its operations in Yemen in 2024.
The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan has had unintended consequences for Pakistan, exacerbating existing security challenges. Pakistan has long been a hub for jihadist groups, but the Taliban’s success in Afghanistan has further intensified these dynamics. Historically, Pakistan supported the Taliban in its fight against the ousted Afghan government and U.S. military forces, but the Taliban’s return to power has emboldened other Pashtun groups within Pakistan. These groups have rallied under the banner of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), contributing to a significant uptick in terrorist activity. Over the past three years, GTTAC has recorded a steady increase in attacks in Pakistan, with 2024 marking the highest number, at 1,046 incidents. Additionally, separatist groups in Balochistan continued to escalate their attacks in 2024, further destabilizing the region.
Somalia is home to the Al-Qaeda-affiliated group Al-Shabaab, which has contributed to the country’s consistent ranking among the top 10 nations for terrorist attacks over the past decade. Al-Shabaab continues to carry out attacks, primarily targeting military forces with suicide bombings and vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs). Additionally, the Philippines has been another country marked by a high number of attacks from 2018 to 2023, driven by jihadist operations in the Moro region and activities of the New People’s Army (NPA). Although the overall trend of terrorist attacks in the Philippines has shown a decline, the country remains a significant focus of concern. In 2024, GTTAC recorded 53 attacks in the Philippines.
GTTAC recorded over 173,000 casualties, including both fatalities and injuries, from 2018 to 2024. The Taliban emerged as one of the most lethal groups, responsible for 47,860 casualties, as shown in Figure 3 below. ISIS and its affiliates, including ISIS-Khorasan, ISIS-DRC and ISIS-West Africa, collectively accounted for over 37,000 casualties between 2018 and 2023. Al-Qaeda’s affiliates, Al-Shabaab and JNIM, were responsible for more than 19,000 casualties during the same period. Combined, ISIS and Al-Qaeda accounted for 37 percent of total casualties from terrorist attacks between 2018 and 2023. This data underscores the significant role these groups play in global terrorist violence, both in terms of frequency and intensity of their attacks.
Figure 4 below provides a detailed monthly breakdown of casualties (both killed and wounded) resulting from terrorist attacks. It reveals that the highest number of casualties occurred in January, March, and May, which may be linked to increased terrorist activity or specific events during these months that led to more deadly attacks. For instance, the October 7 Hamas attacks, which led to the tragic loss of more than 1,300 lives, had a profound impact on the overall casualty figures for that month, making October one of the most deadly months in terms of fatalities.
The GTTAC data suggests a pattern of heightened activity during the spring and summer months, which may be attributed to various factors such as more favorable weather conditions for terrorist operations, strategic planning by terrorist groups, or seasonal variations in conflict intensity. Additionally, spring and summer months are often associated with certain cultural or political events, which could influence the timing of attacks. This trend highlights the potential seasonal variability in terrorist operations, suggesting that counter-terrorism strategies may need to adjust their focus during these periods of heightened risk.
GTTAC data also tracks the tactics and weapon types employed by terrorist groups, which serve as key indicators of their operational capacities and strengths. As illustrated in Figure 5 below, firearms were the most commonly used weapon in terrorist attacks, accounting for 56 percent of all incidents recorded from 2018 to 2023. Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) were the second most frequently used weapon, deployed in 18 percent of attacks, followed by explosives (17 percent) and incendiary devices (4 percent). These statistics provide valuable insight into the preferred methods and resources utilized by terrorist organizations, highlighting the ongoing reliance on small arms and explosives in their operations.
Between 2018 and 2023, as seen in Figure 6 below, approximately 50 percent of terrorist attacks involved shooting, making it the most frequently used tactic. This was followed by bombing, which accounted for 23 percent of attacks, and the planting of mines and explosives, which was observed in 11 percent of incidents. Kidnappings were recorded in 7 percent of attacks, while suicide bombings represented 2 percent. Other tactics included assassinations, executions, stabbings, and storming of locations. Notably, stabbings have gained particular attention as a tactic employed by lone actors, with the GTTAC recording 440 such attacks from 2021 to 2024.
The evolving tactics of terrorist groups over time reflect changes in their operational capacities. For instance, GTTAC’s analysis of ISIS tactics from 2018 to 2023 in Figure 7 reveals a significant shift from bombings to planting improvised explosive devices (IEDs), which is indicative of ISIS being pushed into more rural areas. The increased use of shooting attacks over the years also suggests that ISIS cells are becoming more active in carrying out direct assaults. These shifts highlight the group’s adaptation to its changing operational environment and its continued capacity to engage in violent actions, even as its territorial control has diminished.
Al Shabaab demonstrated a distinct evolution in its tactics compared to ISIS as seen in Figure 8. While the frequency of shooting attacks decreased, the group increasingly relied on bombings and IEDs, a shift that indicates its growing capacity to operate in both rural and urban areas across Somalia. This evolution suggests that Al Shabaab has adapted to its environment, utilizing more diverse and effective attack methods to maintain its regional presence and influence.
Hezbollah has emerged as one of the most active groups since the October 7 attacks, with a total of 1,683 attacks recorded between 2018 and 2024. Notably, over 95% of these attacks occurred after October 7, reflecting the group’s heightened operational activity in the wake of the attack. According to Figure 9 below, the evolution of Hezbollah’s tactics also highlights a significant shift, with bombing methods comprising 94% of their attacks- particularly missiles and UAVs. This shift indicates the group’s increasing reliance on advanced weaponry and technology, enhancing its operational capabilities and strategic reach.
In conclusion, GTTAC data reaffirms that global terrorism remains a significant and persistent threat. The number of terrorist incidents in 2024 increased by over 15 percent compared to the previous year. The October 7th attacks by Hamas marked a critical turning point, leading to a more active involvement of Iran-backed militia groups, including Hezbollah, in terrorist activities. GTTAC’s analysis of weapon and tactic types highlights the growing capacities of these groups and their ability to adapt to evolving operational environments. Groups operating in rural areas have increasingly relied on IEDs, while more established groups have employed a wide range of bombing tactics, including suicide bombings and VBIEDs. Given the ongoing operational capabilities of these groups, along with unresolved root causes of terrorism and insufficient governmental resources in many countries where terrorism originates, it is likely that GTTAC will continue to record terrorist attacks at levels similar to those of previous years in the foreseeable future.