Key Judgments:
- We assess that it’s likely that Core al-Qaeda will be able to attack the US homeland and its interests as well as its allies in the foreseeable future.
- We assess that a Core al-Qaeda attack against the US homeland and its interests as well as its allies would likely be a high-damage event.
Core Al-Qaeda Likely to Attack Against the US
Core al-Qaeda before the US withdrawal from Afghanistan was incapable of posing a large-scale threat to the US, its interests abroad, and its allied countries. The American military presence in Afghanistan forced the organization to suffer losses of its pre-September 11, 2001 sanctuary and threatening external operations structures. Since the August 2021 US withdrawal followed by the pro-al-Qaeda Taliban’s takeover, Core al-Qaeda has regained its sanctuary with an extensive presence in Afghanistan and has also been rebuilding its external operations network.
- Core al-Qaeda by far dominates other Afghanistan-Pakistan-based terrorist groups in the number of attack plots: 76% of attack plotters indicted in the US were affiliated with al-Qaeda.i
- Today, Core al-Qaeda has access to all the resources it had before September 11, 2001: a supportive regime in Afghanistan offering a safe haven, training camps, money, foreign fighters, and freedom to move and operate. In addition, the Taliban are now fully controlling Afghanistan as opposed to pre-9/11, which means that the above resources are now available to al-Qaeda even more abundantly, translating into a serious threat.ii
- Assessments by US officials have already projected that Core al-Qaeda would be able to reconstitute its external attack capabilities within 12 to 36 months.iii
- On multiple occasions, Core al-Qaeda has expressed its unwavering intent to launch a mass-casualty attack against the US. The late senior al-Qaeda member Abu Muhammad al-Masri in his book, “The 9/11 Operations: Between Truth and Uncertainty,” claimed that his organization would next launch attacks on multiple cities in the US, on an even larger scale than September 11, 2001.iv
Core Al-Qaeda Attack Against the US Would be a High-Damage Event
After 25 years of declaring war against the US, Core al-Qaeda remains sharply focused on lethally striking its enemy. Post-US exit from Afghanistan, regaining its strategic external operational capabilities through the benevolent support of the Taliban rulers, al-Qaeda would most likely fulfill Osama bin Laden’s promise of another 9/11. If Core al-Qaeda continues to strengthen and ultimately attacks the US as projected, the event would cause massive damage.
- The US policy focus has shifted from counterterrorism to strategic competition with China and Russia, with resources redirected accordingly. Preventing terrorist attacks by Core al-Qaeda is no longer the top priority as it used to be post-9/11.v This policy shift is evident from the pullout of US troops from Afghanistan.
- US counterterrorism capability targeting Core al-Qaeda cells is now at an all-time low after the 9/11 attacks. On-the-ground intelligence and special forces’ strike capabilities have been replaced by an ‘over-the-horizon’ strategy involving only aerial signals intelligence (SIGINT) and drone strikes.vi Such a weak counterterrorism strategy implies low chances of pre-attack detection and possibly high damage.
- With lower counterterrorism pressure from the US that had previously held back terrorist attacks by Core al-Qaeda, the threat from the organization to launch high-profile attacks is metastasizing.vii
The overall assessment is that Core al-Qaeda presents high risk to the US homeland and its interests as well as its allies at this time. Following the troops’ pullout from Afghanistan, the threat has grown significantly.
Sources
i Mines, Andrew. “The Evolving Terrorism Threat to the U.S. from the Afghanistan-Pakistan Region.” George Washington University Program on Extremism, 2023. https://extremism.gwu.edu/sites/g/files/zaxdzs5746/files/2023-08/evolving-threats-from-afpak-final.pdf.
ii Ghosh, Nirmal. “Al-Qaeda Threat, Blowback for Pakistan Increasing from an Afghanistan in Chaos.” Asia News Network, January 27, 2023. https://asianews.network/al-qaeda-threat-blowback-for-pakistan-increasing-from-an-afghanistan-in-chaos/.
iii Clarke, Colin P. and Tore R. Hamming. “Al Qaeda and ISIS Still Want to Attack America — What Can We Expect?” The Hill, July 24, 2022. https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3572418-al-qaeda-and-isis-still-want-to-attack-america-what-can-we-expect/.
iv Harmouch, Sara. “Al-Qaeda’s Looming Threat: Are We Looking Over the Wrong Horizon?,” Lawfare Media, April 4, 2023. https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/al-qaedas-looming-threat-are-we-looking-over-wrong-horizon.
v Byman, Daniel and Asfandyar Mir. “How Strong Is Al-Qaeda? A Debate” War on the Rocks, May 19, 2022. https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/how-strong-is-al-qaeda-a-debate/.
vi Zimmerman, Katherine. “Over-the-Horizon Not Enough to Keep US Safe from Afghan Terror Threat,” Critical Threats, December 3, 2021. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/over-the-horizon-not-enough-to-keep-us-safe-from-afghan-terror-threat.
vii Hamming, Tore, and Colin P. Clarke. “Biden’s Over-the-Horizon Counter-Terrorism Strategy Is Far below Standard.” Foreign Policy, January 5, 2022. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/05/over-the-horizon-biden-afghanistan-counter-terrorism/#cookie_message_anchor.