COLUMN: Haqqani Network Poses a Low Threat to the United States

Key Judgments: 

• We assess that is unlikely that the Haqqani Network will be able to attack the US homeland and its interests as well as its allies in the foreseeable future. 

• We assess that a Haqqani Network attack against the US homeland and its interests as well as its allies would likely be a high-damage event.  

Haqqani Network Unlikely to Attack Against the US. The Haqqani Network under its founder Jalaluddin Haqqani was historically unconcerned with global jihadism, confining its operations to Afghanistan. Now under Sirajuddin Haqqani, the Network has well-established globalized organizational and operational ties. Notwithstanding its multiple external capabilities, the Haqqani Network lacks the motivation to attack the US, its DIME interests, and its allies as it has nothing to gain but everything to lose from it.  

• The Haqqani Network is aware that the country it is ruling is heavily dependent on foreign aid. In 2022, it was estimated that 24.4 million people, or 59% of the Afghan population, depends on international humanitarian assistance to stay alive.¹ 

• The Taliban government of which the Haqqanis are a part is still struggling to gain formal international recognition. This would not only provide the administration with much-needed legitimacy to continue its rule over Afghanistan, but also potentially ease diplomatic barriers to attracting international finance and investment deals.² 

• The fact that the Haqqani Network as a subset of the Taliban controls Afghanistan means it has won the war against the US-led Coalition. Therefore, rather than attacking the US and allies that they have already defeated, the Haqqanis’ immediate priorities include shoring up their important government positions, sustaining the overall Taliban government, and backing the Pakistan-focused TTP.³  

Haqqani Network’s Attack Against the US Would be a High-Damage Event. The Haqqani Network under Sirajuddin Haqqani has published a global jihadist manifesto that betrays the international scope of its intent. Truly, its sophisticated international capabilities ranging from financing operations to terrorist linkages enable the Network to possibly conduct or facilitate mass-casualty attacks in the US and allied states. Considering the post-withdrawal downgraded US counterterrorism capacities, if the Haqqani Network targets the US and its allies, the damage would be large-scale. 

• The Haqqani Network is self-sufficient in all aspects of terrorism and boasts a myriad of sophisticated resources for executing massive external attacks. Not only does it have its own battle-hardened army called the ‘Badr Corps’, but also, under Sirajuddin Haqqani as Afghanistan’s powerful interior minister, the organization commands funding, fighters, training, arms and ammunition, and foreign intelligence.⁴  

• Besides its own capabilities, the Network’s close connections with anti-Western, international terrorist entities such as Daesh, al-Qaeda and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) are an established fact.⁵ The Haqqanis sent several hundred fighters to the Middle East to support Daesh’s efforts in Iraq and Syria. They have also been harboring and providing a permissive operational environment to Core al-Qaeda and the LeT that have serious anti-US ambitions.  

• The Haqqanis harbor hatred for the US given their past experiences. The US Department of State has placed a reward of up to $10 million on Sirajuddin Haqqani’s head for the last 12 years.6 Anas Haqqani was imprisoned for eight years in Guantanamo Bay and Bagram Airbase. Furthermore, most of the family members of the Network’s operatives suffered greatly after the US-led collapse of the Taliban regime in 2001. All this has left deep psychological and emotional wounds, and thus revenge is a major slogan of the Haqqanis.  

• Since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, physical intelligence and on-the-ground forces that could check the Haqqani Network’s operations have been absent. Relief from this constant counterterrorism pressure means the Network is operating at full capacity. Merely aerial ‘over-the-horizon’ capabilities are not sufficient to prevent the planning and execution of a lethal external attack.⁷ 

The overall assessment is that while the Haqqani Network is a highly capable actor, it poses minimal short-term risk to the US, its interests, and its allies. In the long term, if the Network feels threatened by the US or its allies, and/or is persuaded by other terrorist organizations, it could launch or facilitate a deadly attack. 

 Authors’ Information:  

Naveen Khan is Nonresident Research Fellow with the Michael J. Morell Center for Intelligence and Security Studies at the University of Akron, Ohio, USA. She also writes as Columnist for Government Technology and Services Coalition’s Homeland Security Today. Holding an MSc in Sociology from the London School of Economics (LSE), she specializes in Afghanistan-Pakistan security affairs.  

Sayed is a Research Fellow-in-Residence at the Michael J. Morell Center for Intelligence and Security Studies at the University of Akron, Ohio, USA. He is also pursuing his MA in Security and Intelligence at the same university.  

Sources

1 International Organization for Migration. “With More than Half of Afghans Dependent on Humanitarian Aid, IOM Calls for Sustained Support,” International Organization for Migration, September 1, 2022. https://www.iom.int/news/more-half-afghans-dependent-humanitarian-aid-iom-calls-sustained-support. 

 2 Schulz, Dante. “The Taliban Continues to Struggle for International Recognition.” Stimson Center, March 17, 2023. https://www.stimson.org/2023/the-taliban-continues-to-struggle-for-international-recognition/.  

3 Co-author’s interview, Dr Sajjan Gohel — Afghanistan-Pakistan security expert, November 17, 2023.  

 4 Smith, Jeff M. “The Haqqani Network: The New Kingmakers in Kabul – War on the Rocks.” War on the Rocks, November 15, 2021. https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/the-haqqani-network-afghanistans-new-power-players/.  

 5 Rasmussen, Sune Engel, and Nancy A. Youssef. “In Taliban-Ruled Afghanistan, Al Qaeda-Linked Haqqani Network Rises to Power.” The Wall Street Journal, August 27, 2021. https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-taliban-ruled-afghanistan-al-qaeda-linked-haqqani-network-rises-to-power-11629990056.  

 6 Federal Bureau of Investigation. “Sirajuddin Haqqani,” Federal Bureau of Investigation, July 13, 2023. https://www.fbi.gov/wanted/terrorinfo/sirajuddin-haqqani. 

 7 Zimmerman, Katherine. “Over-the-Horizon Not Enough to Keep US Safe from Afghan Terror Threat,” Critical Threats, December 3, 2021. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/over-the-horizon-not-enough-to-keep-us-safe-from-afghan-terror-threat.