The year 2024 saw the growing use of drones in various capacities. Like any technology, drones have evolved to have a dual-use capability for good and bad. We have seen disturbing videos of drones targeting soldiers on the battlelines in Ukraine, which is changing warfare for fielded forces. We have seen drones provide civilians with lifesaving aid, which is changing relief response to hurricanes and other large disasters. We also have seen mysterious drones flying over cities and facilities of which nobody is taking ownership or explaining their intentions. Drones will become more common in 2025 and will be used in more nefarious ways.
What keeps me up at night is how drones can be used to degrade or destroy our electrical infrastructure. If done at the local or regional level, the outcome could have cascading or escalating impacts on other infrastructure sectors, all of which are dependent on electricity to function. As a modern society, the U.S. is heavily dependent on the functioning of its critical infrastructure, especially electricity, which is something we take for granted until we have an outage. Power plants produce electrical power that is stepped up in voltage by transformers to optimize transmission efficiency. The power is then sent long distances along transmission lines, stepped down in voltage by transformers to a more manageable level at distribution sub-stations, and then distributed to homes and businesses for consumption. All of these transformers, transmission lines, and distribution sub-stations are open to the air above and, thereby, are exploitable by drones in a precision manner.
Commercial drones today can carry over 20 pounds, and can be modified with inexpensive three-dimensional-printed mechanisms to drop steel wires across transmission lines that will produce faults and cascading redirections of power; to drop homemade thermite devices on transformers to burn through and set fire to their oil-filled cases; and to degrade and damage key distribution sub-station equipment. The loss of electrical equipment causes consumer outages because, at this point, we do not bank electrical power effectively. In fact, the electricity that is powering your computer screen as you read this was created by a generator moments ago in a distant electrical generating plant.
Another challenge that amplifies the threat of drones against our electrical infrastructure is that the U.S. is very reactionary, in that we are good at closing the barn door after the horse has bolted and disappeared over the hill. There are things that can be done to further harden our electrical infrastructure from drone attacks, but they are not cheap, the electrical power lobbyist will fight them, and, honestly, gaining political support is hard as it makes for a poor stump speech come re-election time. So, here we are: don’t expect much action to remedy the increasing threat of drones to our electrical infrastructure until something bad happens. Then finger pointing will occur, and Congressional hearings will ensue, and many will ask why the barn door was left wide open, assuming, of course, there is electrical power to arrange and holds hearings. So, be ready for the rise of the machine, the drone, in 2025.