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Friday, November 14, 2025

PERSPECTIVE: Iran Is Preparing for Asymmetric Retaliation – The U.S. Must Secure the Homeland Now

On June 21, the United States struck Iran’s nuclear program directly for the first time in decades. B-2 bombers destroyed the Fordow enrichment facility using bunker-busting bombs. Simultaneously, missile strikes hit Natanz and Isfahan. The goal was to degrade Iran’s nuclear weapons capability. The strikes were tactically effective—but the strategic threat to the U.S. homeland has grown. 

Iran’s regime warned of this. According to NBC News, Tehran sent a backchannel message to President Trump days before the attack: if its nuclear sites were targeted, it would activate sleeper-cell terrorist groups already inside the United States.  

The Department of Homeland Security has issued a heightened threat advisory. The FBI is monitoring potential retaliatory activity. ICE recently detained 11 Iranian nationals along the southern border—including a former IRGC member with Hezbollah ties and a trained sniper who served in the Iranian army from 2018 to 2021. He entered the U.S. on a fiancé visa. Border Patrol and intelligence officials are concerned that others may have already crossed undetected, using asylum fraud, student visas, or human trafficking routes. Such individuals pose an immediate risk if they have operational capabilities and intent. 

Iran has spent decades preparing for irregular warfare. Its playbook avoids direct military confrontation and instead focuses on: 

  • Covert operatives and sleeper cells placed abroad 
  • Proxy networks, especially Hezbollah, trained in sabotage and logistics 
  • Cyberattacks targeting U.S. financial, utility, and transportation systems 
  • Disinformation and influence operations, including through U.S.-based religious or cultural centers 

These are not new tactics. In 2011, Iran’s Quds Force plotted to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, D.C. Between 2007 and 2017, weapons caches linked to Hezbollah were discovered in Michigan and New Jersey. And in cyberspace, Iran has already tested its reach: the 2011–2013 denial-of-service attacks on U.S. banks were traced back to Iranian state actors, as was the attempted breach of a Florida water treatment plant in 2021. 

Meanwhile, “No War With Iran” rallies have reemerged in cities like New York, Chicago, Boston and Los Angeles. Some protesters are well-meaning, but these rallies often feature groups with longstanding links to Tehran’s public diplomacy operations—including NIAC that have echoed regime talking points for years. These events generate cover and confusion, distracting from legitimate security risks and muddying the national response. 

Right now, there is a ceasefire. No open war. No missiles flying. But that doesn’t mean the threat is gone. It means the battlefield has shifted—from airspace to cyberspace, from border zones to urban neighborhoods. The absence of explosions does not mean peace. It means Iran is preparing to retaliate in ways Americans may not see until it’s too late. 

The United States must act. Now. Five immediate steps: 

  1. Tighten visa and asylum screening for Iranian nationals, with red flags tied to IRGC, Hezbollah, or suspect travel patterns. 
  2. Expand counterintelligence coordination between DHS, FBI, NSA, and local law enforcement to identify embedded operatives. 
  3. Audit and monitor regime-linked front organizations including student unions, religious centers, and cultural nonprofits. 
  4. Fortify soft targets—Jewish schools, government facilities, and energy infrastructure—through increased local and federal coordination. 
  5. Elevate cyber defense posture across all sectors. Iran has targeted water systems, electric grids, and ports before—it will try again. 

This is not overreaction. It is preparation. Iran operates under a doctrine of plausible deniability and gradual escalation. It has built parallel influence and attack structures—waiting to be activated when Tehran needs leverage. 

The United States must adopt a fixed posture: no negotiations with the regime, no attempts at diplomatic resets, and zero tolerance for any foreign-directed operations on American soil. Clarity of intent is essential—any signal of weakness or hesitation will be exploited. Regime change remains the long-term strategic necessity. But in the near term, the priority is defense: containment, surveillance, and disruption of any covert Iranian threat inside the U.S. 

The U.S. struck Fordow and Natanz. That was the right call. But Tehran’s next move won’t be another missile. It may be a cyber outage in Houston. A fire at a synagogue in Los Angeles. A coordinated stabbing in Brooklyn. Iran has the tools—and the motive. We must respond as if they are already in motion. Because they are. 

Dr. Aidin Panahi is an Iranian-American research professor, energy expert, and political advocate focused on the Iranian regime’s influence operations and their implications for U.S. homeland security. He is the co-founder of From Boston to Iran, a grassroots movement mobilizing Iranian-Americans and allies to expose and counter the Islamic Republic’s activities in Massachusetts and across the United States. Dr. Panahi works closely with Jewish and pro-Israel organizations on advocacy, coalition-building, and security-focused public awareness. His analyses on Iran’s influence networks and infiltration tactics have been published in The Jerusalem Post, The Washington Times, JNS, and Middle East Forum. X: @Aidin_FreeIran

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