In December 2024, a 14-year-old in Wisconsin opened fire at his school, killing a teacher and student. FBI investigators found his online trail: months of extremist content, radicalization in gaming chats, and adult influencers feeding his grievances.
This tragedy could have been prevented. Until this year, we had teams designed to catch these warning signs early. Now they’re gone.
I should know, I led one of them. As head of the State Department’s Preventing Violent Extremism team, I watched us dismantle prevention programs just when extremists are innovating faster than ever.
The Program We Just Killed
For the past decade, prevention teams worked a simple mission: stop violence before it starts.
My State Department team disrupted ISIS recruitment, countered al-Qaeda propaganda, and worked with partners to prevent extremist resurgence. We tracked neo-Nazi networks, anti-Muslim hate groups, and online subcultures targeting teenagers.
At DHS, the Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships (CP3) engaged schools, communities, and tech companies to spot radicalization early. At FBI and HHS, teams protected kids from online predators using extremist ideologies.
This year, these programs were shut down.
The justification? “Lack of measurable results.” But prevention’s success is invisible—it’s the attack that never happens, the school shooting that doesn’t occur.
A Lesson From 1917 We Should Have Learned
In January 1917, British codebreakers intercepted a secret German telegram to Mexico promising U.S. territory to Mexico if they joined Germany against America. When shared with Washington, many dismissed it as “fake news.”
They were wrong. Once verified, public opinion shifted overnight and America entered World War I. This is now knows as the Zimmerman Telegram.
The lesson: hostile actors use disinformation to reshape geopolitics, and ignoring it early delays critical action.
Today’s version isn’t a telegram: it’s TikTok videos, encrypted channels, and AI propaganda targeting American kids.
The Pattern We Keep Repeating
1970s Europe: Governments ignored extremist networks like Germany’s Red Army Faction. They grew into violent movements that killed hundreds.
1990s America: We treated the 1993 World Trade Center bombing as isolated instead of recognizing al-Qaeda’s growing network. 9/11 showed the cost.
2010s Lessons: We built prevention teams because military strikes alone weren’t enough against ISIS recruitment.
2025 Mistake: We’re dismantling those tools as extremists weaponize AI content and encrypted messaging.
History is shouting at us. We’re not listening.
What Prevention Actually Looks Like
In 2019, our team identified ISIS sympathizers using gaming platforms to recruit American teenagers. We disrupted their tactics before any contact occurred. No arrests, no headlines—just prevention.
In 2021, CP3 worked with a Virginia school where teachers noticed concerning online behavior. Instead of suspension, they connected the family with counselors who understood radicalization. That teenager graduated and went to college.
These aren’t headline cases: They’re tragedies that never happened because someone intervened early.
The Innovation We’re Ignoring
While we dismantle prevention, extremists innovate:
AI-Generated Propaganda: Deepfakes and personalized recruitment content adapting to individual profiles.
Encrypted Recruitment: Moving to gaming chats, homework apps, and virtual reality spaces where kids gather.
Gamified Radicalization: Turning ideology into interactive entertainment.
We built programs for 2010s tactics. Now we face 2025 innovation with 1990s reactive approaches.
What Happens Next
Without prevention, we default to reaction:
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More school shootings that could have been prevented
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More Americans radicalized because we stopped disrupting networks
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More lone-wolf attacks because we’re not watching for warning signs
When the next attack happens, politicians will demand investigations. They’ll ask why no one saw it coming.
The answer will be simple: We chose not to prevent. We chose to react.
What You Can Do
Parents: Learn warning signs of online radicalization. Monitor not just platforms but attitude changes.
Educators: Support media literacy programs teaching students to recognize manipulation.
Citizens: Contact representatives about prevention funding. Ask why reactive approaches are better than stopping violence early.
Communities: Support local civic education and youth engagement programs.
The Choice We Face
In 1917, America recognized the Zimmermann Telegram’s threat but only after dismissing it as fake news cost precious time.
In 2001, we learned that treating isolated incidents as unconnected was deadly.
In 2025, we have a choice: rebuild prevention systems before the next attack, or wait for tragedy to force our hand.
The extremists aren’t waiting. They’re innovating, recruiting, and planning. Meanwhile, we’re dismantling early warning systems.
Prevention works when we fund it. It fails when we don’t.
The question isn’t whether another major attack will happen—it’s whether we’ll choose to prevent it or simply react to it.
Make sure you read Part 2 here.