Key Takeaways:
> State and local governments, as well as the philanthropic sector, will bear a heavy burden without federal disaster recovery assistance.
> Cuts to FEMA programs like IHP mean states would have to develop their own capacity to respond to residents – like the more than 2.6M Floridians who applied for relief after 2017’s Hurricane Irma.
> Texas, Florida, and Louisiana Congressional districts had the highest number of households that applied for FEMA assistance.
In the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace blog Emissary, the significant and ongoing changes being made to the federal disaster recovery system under the Trump Administration are evaluated against Carnegie’s Disaster Dollar Database data. (This database is a tool that tracks the major sources of grant-based federal funding for disaster recovery in the United States.) “Multiple agencies that distribute the nation’s federal recovery funds and otherwise equip emergency managers and first responders are in the administration’s crosshairs—most notably, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).”
For states that rely heavily on federal disaster assistance, the potential outcomes of these changes will transform disaster response. The authors examined several pieces of evidence – the firing of four senior FEMA staff leaders; the 84% reduction in staff responsible for long-term recovery funding; cuts to wildland firefighter funding; and the termination of weather forecasters and probationary employees at both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service – to forecast how this will restructure the nation’s emergency response capabilities. This was before the latest Executive Order, “Achieving Efficiency Through State and Local Preparedness,” which calls for state and local governments to take a more prominent role in national resilience efforts while reducing federal involvement in managing disaster preparedness programs.
According to the Disaster Dollar Database, Gulf South and mid-Atlantic states will bear the brunt of these changes. Florida, which averages over 500,000 FEMA assistance applications annually, along with Louisiana and Texas, which each receive approximately $1.4 billion in annual federal disaster grant funding, are particularly vulnerable to these shifts.
The scale of federal support has been substantial, with FEMA’s Individuals and Households Program (IHP) providing an average of $3,398 to more than 1.7 million Florida households over the past decade. The current system offers online portals, call centers, and deploys a nationwide workforce to disaster zones, primarily through FEMA’s Public Assistance and the Department of Housing and Urban Development’s Community Development Block Grant – Disaster Recovery program (where the workforce was cut by 84%, from 936 to 150).
These changes will impact communities across political lines. Of the 25 most disaster-impacted congressional districts, 8 were represented by Democrats and 17 by Republicans. While more people in Republican districts applied for assistance, award amounts were similar regardless of political representation.
With hurricane season less than 90 days away, potential consequences are far-reaching. States will need to rapidly develop their own disaster response programs. Communities already facing challenges will lack rebuilding resources, potentially accelerating migration from disaster-prone regions. Individuals may experience lifelong economic setbacks, with those having fewer resources facing the most limited options. Infrastructure damage could slow economic activity, creating a cycle of reduced income and services, while the philanthropic sector will face increasing pressure to fill the resulting gaps.
States like Louisiana, Florida, and Texas will be at the front lines “a bleak post-disaster future” if the administration follows through on rapidly defunding the federal disaster system.
“It’s hard to dispute the facts; however, no matter the political color of the congressional district, it’s the disaster survivors who will suffer,” said Peter Gaynor, Homeland Security Today Editorial Board member, former FEMA Administrator and current Vice President of Resiliency and Disaster Recovery for Hill International. “I vote for smart and thoughtful reform that improves outcomes for disaster survivors.”