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Thursday, March 20, 2025

2025 Homeland Security Threat Forecast: Revisiting Our Approach to Terrorism Prevention

As homeland security professionals consider 2025 and beyond, we need to take stock of the variety of attacks we’ve seen, and using our evolved terrorist “profile,” update our investments in preventing and investigating attacks. Based on what we’ve seen, how might we seek to adjust our prevention and investigation approach?  

  1. Explain the terrorist “profile” – As new leaders come or return to power in national security, we will have to explain the evolution of the terrorist profile, helping them understand that well beyond ideology, what terrorists have in common is disenfranchisement with their place in society. It is not uncommon for these individuals to first aspire to violence as a means of channeling their frustration, and then to find the ideology to support it. The recent New Orleans attacker highlights this and further breaks the “traditional” model as he was middle aged, which had typically been considered “stable,” versus younger 20-year-old attackers. 
  2. Focus on non-traditional partners – We also need to continue to embrace a holistic approach to terrorism prevention beyond a law enforcement or intelligence community problem set to follow the problem “upstream”. Programs, such as DHS’s Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships (CP3) recognize the need to convene “non-traditional” partners such as public health officials to share best practices and unique viewpoints on targeted violence and terrorism prevention. Additionally, the Department of Homeland Security Targeted Violence and Terrorism Program (TVTP) grant program provides much needed support to state, local, tribal, and territorial governments; nonprofits; and institutions of higher education to establish or enhance capabilities to prevent targeted violence and terrorism. CP3 helps bolster these organizations as they work to prevent targeted violence and terrorism. 
  3. Invest in hardening soft targets – While this is not a new priority, we’ve seen delayed investment in security measures or the turnover in personnel with the knowledge and muscle memory of working high profile public events. The New Orleans attack, German Christmas market attack, and the high-profile cancellation of Taylor Swift’s ERAS tour in Austria demonstrate terrorists’ continued focus on soft targets, underpinning the imperative to close any security loops as quickly as possible. 
  4. Cultivate relationships with emerging private sector vendors – As consumers continue to shift their buying habits to emerging vendors such as Turo, which can be described as the “Airbnb” of rental cars, allowing people to rent cars directly from their owners, national security professionals need to focus on cultivating relationships with these new vendors. As technology continues to evolve partnerships with the technology sector should so homeland security professionals can understand future vulnerabilities. In the case of the New Orleans attacker, Turo, the rental car company the attacker used, and Meta, whose glasses the attacker used to plan out his attack route, were instrumental to providing information to investigators.  

As we enter 2025, we must have a renewed investment in the partners with whom homeland security professional engage, the information we share, and creative ways to harden soft targets which will build the resilience and prevention we need in the terrorism space. 

Kristyn Shapiro
Kristyn Shapiro
Kristyn Kelly Shapiro is an Associate Director in Defense and Security at Guidehouse after 18 years of federal service with the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Naval Intelligence. In the FBI she served as member of the Senior Executive Service (SES) in the Counterterrorism Division where she led through crisis events from the Pulse Nightclub shooting through the events of January 6th. In her last role as an SES she was responsible for talent acquisition and human capital strategy helping the Bureau tackle recruiting in the post-pandemic labor market. Prior to joining the FBI, Kristyn was an intelligence analyst with the U.S. Navy with experience in international operations, Human Intelligence, and on the Naval Intelligence Staff. She holds a Bachelor of Arts in International Studies from Boston College and a Master of Business Administration from the University of Virginia Darden School of Business.

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