Introduction
At the beginning of the year, I published a terrorism threat assessment for the. HS Today Threat Forecast 2025. The report described how the intersecting efforts of foreign malign actors, terrorist resourcing and recruitment, and international criminal organizations combine to heighten the probability of attacks.
While no one wants to be correct in predicting terrorism, the past twelve months have proven that these overlapping influences resulted in attacks. This phenomenon can be described as the Terrorism Confluence Effect (TCE)—where entropy between independent actions and actors, focused on a common target, culminates in a higher probability of attack.
Observed Trends
Since publication, several attacks and thwarted plots have followed the TCE pattern. As predicted in January 2025, most attacks were committed by lone-wolf actors, often indoctrinated online through internet chat rooms and social media. These actors may have been, in part, influenced by significant foreign amplification campaigns designed to sow discord.
Examples of Attacks:
- The New Orleans New Year’s Attack
- Targeting Jewish U.S. citizens at the Capitol Jewish Museum and in Boulder, Michigan
- The assassination of Charlie Kirk
- Attacks on an ICE detention facility in Texas
- Numerous other incidents that were successfully thwarted
These events underscore the complexity of ideological drivers, ranging from antisemitism to religious and politically motivated violence.
Policy Response
The White House’s September 25 memorandum on Countering Domestic Terrorism and Organized Political Violence highlights the urgent need to address these dynamic and escalating threats. Additionally, efforts to combat transnational organized crime will have compounding impacts on reducing terrorism resourcing and operational support.
However, these measures may drive adversaries toward grey zone operations, cyberattacks, and influence campaigns aimed at Western interests. With high-profile sporting events such as the Super Bowl and World Cup approaching, the risk of heightened attacks due to TCE factors may increase.
Recommendations
To mitigate the impact of the Terrorism Confluence Effect, security professionals should adopt a multi-dimensional approach:
- LeverageOpen SourceIntelligence (OSINT) to identify foreign nefarious actions early
- Target and prosecute criminal activities with ties to malign foreign actors
- Educate the public on the risks of influence operations and online radicalization
- Enhance interagency communication across federal, state, and local law enforcement
Closing Thought
The convergence of foreign influence, criminal networks, and online radicalization is not a theoretical risk—it is a proven reality. Proactive, collaborative, and intelligence-driven strategies are essential to counter this evolving threat landscape.