- Pakistan supported the Taliban, expecting help against the TTP, reduced Indian influence, and progress on the TAPI pipeline, but the Taliban have not fulfilled these expectations.
- Taliban leaders resent Pakistan for past betrayals, like handing over leaders to the U.S., which leads to Taliban tolerating TTP attacks on Pakistan.
- Ongoing tensions over the TTP, India’s influence, and the Durand Line, despite regional powers’ calls for stability, make further clashes likely.
While Pakistan’s hopes in the Afghan Taliban’s government that lay behind its support for the group’s 20-year insurgency have been frustrated, the dystopian scenario requires serious reflection. In an X post, Pakistan’s defense minister, Khawaja Asif, nearly admitted that Pakistan aided the Taliban during the terrorism-laced insurgency while simultaneously being a U.S. and NATO ally. Ironically, Asif also emphasizes Pakistan hosting Afghans as a favor, who became refugees because of the state’s very support for the Taliban’s war against the Afghan state and people.
Ceasing logistical and operational support to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is not the only hope Pakistan has been frustrated about, concerning the Afghan Taliban. Pakistan also expected the regime to block its rival India’s influence in Afghanistan, but ironically, it now accuses the group of being India’s “proxy,” saying whose decisions and actions “are now being directed from New Delhi.” Clearly, Pakistan misjudged that the Taliban could not make independent decisions, just as it has traditionally seen Afghanistan as its “backyard.” New accusations that the Taliban are some kind of puppets working for the Indian government show that the Pakistanis’ views have not really changed.
Likewise, Pakistan expected the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-Iran (TAPI) gas pipeline to progress under the Taliban, but the lack of international recognition for their government hinders the project, which Pakistani policymakers should have understood when supporting a group whose government would later face international funding issues affecting the pipeline. Similarly, the Taliban’s backing for the TTP and Pakistan’s tense relations with India—another potential recipient of Turkmen natural gas—undermine the TAPI pipeline project, which Pakistan should have recognized before aiding the Taliban and allowing relations with India to deteriorate.
Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir recently reported that Afghan Taliban leaders harbor deep-seated grudges against Pakistan for handing over their senior members, including ambassador Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef, to the U.S. in exchange for money. According to him, those he interviewed during the insurgency said they would take revenge on Pakistan for this treacherous behavior once they gain power in Afghanistan. The failure to recognize this dynamic, which is now evident in Taliban-supported TTP’s attacks on Pakistan’s security forces, reflects a serious failure of the state’s foreign policy, essentially an extension of its defense policy.
No matter the reasons for the outbreak of war, it is shocking how two allies from two decades ago are now fighting intensely. Regional powers like Iran and Russia want the Taliban not to be involved in the conflict because they see their government as an ally against Daesh-Khorasan (‘Islamic State’ – Khorasan Province)—just as China desires stability in the region to protect the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project and its investments based in Afghanistan. Qatar and Türkiye have also tried to encourage the Taliban and Pakistan to stop fighting, aiming to position themselves as leaders of the Muslim world by helping to end the conflict between two key states.
However, Taliban government spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid has announced that if Pakistan chooses war, they would “choose annihilation,” adding that his government has “the power to deliver a decisive blow from which they [the Pakistanis] will never recover.” Similarly, Abdul Hadi Hemmat, the head of the Taliban military court in the northern zone, threatened that the group’s forces would capture Quetta (capital of Balochistan) and Peshawar (capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) in two nights in Pakistan, only if Taliban leader Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada allowed them. Pakistan also declared an “open war” and refused dialogue with the Taliban unless “terrorism from Afghanistan” ends.
Curiously, Saudi Arabia, despite signing a defense pact with Pakistan in September 2025 that stipulated an attack on either nation would be considered an attack on the other, has only tried to promote a ceasefire and negotiations between the parties, avoiding any assistance to the Pakistanis against Taliban forces. According to critics, the agreement failed its very first test if it was supposed to serve as a deterrent against external attacks—which in this case began after Pakistan’s deadly airstrikes inside eastern Afghanistan, citing the TTP’s and Daesh-Khorasan’s safe havens.
The TTP’s insurgency against Pakistan began in 2007 as they aimed to create a Taliban-style state, a lesson they learned at Pakistani madrasas. The Afghan Taliban’s victory in 2021, which the TTP fought alongside, freed them from the insurgency in Afghanistan and allowed them to focus entirely on Pakistan. Understandably, they have since become more active in targeting Pakistani forces. However, it wasn’t until 2026 that war broke out between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan, supposedly over the former’s unwavering support for the TTP.
This timing of the war has sparked the claim that Pakistan did not start the airstrikes in February 2026 because of the TTP, which then led to the Taliban’s retaliatory attack and the outbreak of the war; instead, this is a “cover story.” The story suggests that U.S. President Donald Trump needs a win in Gaza, and he wants the Pakistanis to send their “battle-hardened military” as part of the International Stabilization Force, which is a component of Trump’s 20-point plan for a Gaza peace deal.
However, because Pakistan’s government has kept its population radicalized for decades, there are fears of a civil war if its military enters Gaza to fight Hamas, as indicated by top clerics from major sects warning against sending troops to disarm Hamas. Therefore, to demonstrate to Trump that Pakistani forces are already engaged in fighting the Afghan Taliban, this war has been launched, and civilians in Afghanistan have been attacked, according to the narrative. It is also claimed that this war is being fought on behalf of the U.S. to retake Bagram Airbase and recover American weapons now in Taliban custody.
Regardless of the motives, this is expected to continue as intermittent fighting between the parties, as tensions persist over the TTP and Taliban’s ties with India, while the Durand Line issue remains unresolved.
