Matthew Ferren, a Council on Foreign Relations international affairs fellow and coauthor of the 2023 National Cybersecurity Strategy, is warning that the Trump administration’s emerging cyber strategy risks getting the China threat wrong.
Ferren says early signals suggest the administration is preparing a new national cybersecurity strategy centered on offensive cyber operations — essentially taking the fight to hackers and hostile states. But he argues this “offense-first” approach is a dangerous miscalculation against China, which he describes as the most persistent and capable cyber adversary targeting U.S. networks.
In his analysis, Ferren also points to a simultaneous weakening of U.S. cyber defenses, including reduced resources and staffing for the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), along with rollbacks of cybersecurity requirements for critical infrastructure operators.
While offensive cyber operations have produced real results against ransomware groups, terrorist propaganda networks, and election interference, Ferren argues China’s cyber ecosystem operates at a scale that makes disruption and deterrence unlikely to work. He says Beijing can quickly replace exposed infrastructure and personnel, and its cyber campaigns serve core national interests — from espionage and technology theft to pre-positioning inside critical systems for potential crisis or conflict.
His bottom line: offense can still play a role, but U.S. security depends on rebuilding defense — hardening critical infrastructure, strengthening minimum standards, and ensuring cyber forces are prepared for high-intensity conflict rather than being overcommitted to peacetime disruption.
(AI was used in part to facilitate this article.)
