Forecasters at the NOAA National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center anticipate above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin for the 2024 season. According to NOAA’s outlook, there is an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, spanning from June 1 to November 30, is projected to be particularly active.
NOAA predicts a range of 17 to 25 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or higher). Of these, 8 to 13 are expected to develop into hurricanes (with winds of 74 mph or higher), and 4 to 7 could become major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters express a 70% confidence in these projections.
The anticipated above-normal activity is attributed to a combination of near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, the development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and decreased wind shear. These conditions favor the formation and strengthening of tropical storms.

“With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission of saving lives and protecting property.”
FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks emphasized the importance of preparedness: “Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today. Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding, and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow.”
The transition from one of the strongest El Ninos to La Nina conditions is expected to create a conducive environment for Atlantic hurricane activity, as La Nina typically reduces wind shear in the tropics. Additionally, the abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean provides more energy for storm development.
This season also presents the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which can generate African easterly waves that often develop into strong, long-lived Atlantic storms. Light trade winds will allow hurricanes to grow stronger without the disruption of wind shear, and will minimize ocean cooling.
Human-caused climate change is warming oceans globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting land ice is contributing to sea level rise. These changes increase the risk of storm surge, adding to the damage potential of hurricanes. Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the damage potential from a given hurricane.
NOAA’s predictions underscore the importance of preparedness and proactive measures in the face of increasingly challenging climate conditions.