FEMA Region II hosts the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as part of Readiness Day on April 26, 2018. (FEMA/K.C. Wilsey)

Why a Quiet Hurricane Season Isn’t Necessarily a Good Thing

Forecasters at Colorado State University say the approaching peak of the 2018 hurricane season will be relatively quiet in the Atlantic Basin. But a report released Wednesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration pointed out a troubling trend that could have implications for future hurricane forecasting: Warming in the Arctic could drive future Atlantic hurricane tracks farther west and thus make a U.S. landfall more likely.

The CSU forecasters, headed by meteorologist Phil Klotzbach, think cooler waters and drier air in the Atlantic Basin—which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea—along with the presence of upper-level winds known as wind shear will make it more difficult for storms to form.

Hurricanes draw their power from warm ocean waters, and warm, moist air helps sustain them. The storms that spawn hurricanes are less likely to intensify when they are deprived of fuel and face hostile atmospheric conditions, thus suggesting the 2018 season is expected to be relatively quiet.

Read more at National Geographic

The Government Technology & Services Coalition's Homeland Security Today (HSToday) is the premier news and information resource for the homeland security community, dedicated to elevating the discussions and insights that can support a safe and secure nation. A non-profit magazine and media platform, HSToday provides readers with the whole story, placing facts and comments in context to inform debate and drive realistic solutions to some of the nation’s most vexing security challenges.

Leave a Reply