A few folks have asked our take on why Putin won’t agree to a ceasefire. My answer? For the same reason he’s building bases near Finland: Russia’s economy collapses if defense spending slows down. Why? It’s the only coal in the furnace.
Kremlin 2024 defense spending was 6.3% of GDP, up 55% over 2023. Expected to increase to 7.5% this year.
39 % of all RU federal spending in 2024 was earmarked for defence and internal security.
Urals crude trading >40% below the Kremlin’s own budget benchmark, CPI passed 10% in March, and the Central Bank’s key rate is 21%(!!)
We haven’t seen these [clowns] putting up numbers like this since perestroika!
It’s now the country’s de‑facto jobs program: 20% of Russia’s manufacturing jobs earning 20‑30% wage premiums to keep three‑shift lines humming.
Yea, Moscow still out‑builds the West; they’re turning out ~250K artillery rounds a month (~3M/yr). The EU aims to produce 2M shells this year (U.S. target is 1M).
Luckily for Russia, overproduction isn’t a risk because Ukrainian deepstrikes have cratered *FOUR* of Russia’s seven largest & heavily guarded stockpiles.
The most recent was just last month, when a single strike erased three years of U.S. factory output at today’s pace – an entire year of Russia’s front‑line demand(!)
So Russia has to backfill – even at full speed, they can’t get close – they’re leaning so hard on Pyongyang that Western intel says half of front‑line shells are now DPRK‑made.
So that’s why he doesn’t stop. He can’t – his life depends on it.
The original post on LinkedIn can be found here.