Over the December 19 weekend, delegations from both Russia and Ukraine traveled to Miami for separate talks with Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, and White House staff member Josh Gruenbaum.
Witkoff described both Florida meetings as “productive and constructive,” noting that discussions with Ukraine addressed the further development of a 20-point plan (reportedly drawn up in initial negotiations with Moscow), alignment on U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine, and an economic recovery plan.
The Ukrainian delegation was led by National Security Council Secretary Rustem Umerov and Chief of Staff Andriy Gnatov. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said negotiations were progressing “quite rapidly” and expressed openness to trilateral talks with Washington and Moscow.
Russia’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who is scheduled to brief Putin on the talks, also characterized the meetings as progressing “constructively.” However, the Kremlin has so far rejected the prospect of three-way negotiations, asserting that no serious discussions have taken place.
Russian demands appear unchanged
At his annual news conference on December 19, the day before his envoy arrived in Miami, Putin said Russian forces have “fully seized strategic initiative” and expressed confidence Moscow would achieve its military goals if Ukraine doesn’t accept Russia’s conditions. Those conditions include recognition of Russian control over Crimea and four Ukrainian regions, Ukrainian withdrawal from NATO aspirations, and limits on Ukraine’s military.
Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov said Russia “1 million percent” won’t cede control of Crimea.
Diverging Western assessments
A split has emerged between U.S. and European intelligence assessments of Russian intentions. Reuters reported that U.S. intelligence believes Putin still seeks control of all Ukraine and harbors ambitions regarding former Soviet states now in NATO.
However, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard disputed this characterization, stating that intelligence assessments indicate Russia “seeks to avoid a larger war with NATO” and lacks the capability to conquer and occupy Ukraine.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb appeared to support Gabbard’s position, saying NATO resolve is sufficiently high that Russia has no interest in attacking alliance members.
Britain’s new MI6 chief Blaise Metreweli accused Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 15 of deliberately prolonging negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, warning that Europe is “operating in a space between peace and war.” In her first public appearance since becoming head of MI6 (formally the Secret Intelligence Service) in September, Metreweli said Putin is “dragging out negotiations and shifting the cost of war onto his own population.” She pledged that UK support for Ukraine would be sustained, stating the world is “more dangerous and contested now than it has been for decades.”
The week prior, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned in his December 11 keynote that “We are Russia’s next target, … conflict is at our door” and called for European nations to prepare for potential confrontation.
Outlook uncertain
The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the current diplomatic push can translate into a lasting settlement. While both sides have characterized recent talks as “constructive,” significant gaps remain on core issues including territorial control, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s future relationship with NATO. The contrast between ongoing negotiations and continued military operations on the ground underscores the instability of the process. With Putin showing no signs of abandoning his stated objectives and Western allies divided on how to assess Russian intentions – debating Rutte’s statement that “Russia has brought war back to Europe” against Putin’s statement of “There won’t be any operations if you treat us with respect, if you respect our interests just as we’ve always tried to respect yours,” – the path forward remains unclear.