Frontline Watch provides a weekly update on emerging terrorist activities and global threat trends, with Counterterrorism Managing Editor Dr. Mahmut Cengiz examining the developments shaping the security landscape both domestically and internationally, with research assistance from Sean Dilallo.
This week’s edition turns its focus to designated terrorist groups in Latin America and current drug networks. “Mexico’s Escalating Cartel Violence and Expanding Cross‑Border Threats” by Mahmut Cengiz analyzes how cartels, now formally designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, are leveraging mass‑casualty attacks, drones, and heavy‑caliber weapons to project power across borders. “Cocaine Trafficking, Maduro, and the International Order” by Camilo Pardo‑Herrera, PhD, examines how Venezuela’s political structures and transnational cocaine flows intersect with U.S. enforcement efforts and the global drug trade. Finally, “Cartels Unbound: Hybrid Warfare and the New Criminal Insurgency” by Eduardo Zerón & Mahmut Cengiz, PhD, explores how criminal organizations in the hemisphere have adopted hybrid tactics that combine insurgent-style operations with organized crime, challenging conventional law enforcement and regional security frameworks.
The edition also provides a review of U.S. military operations and policy signals related to counterterrorism, as well as notable terrorist attacks recorded between March 28 and April 3.
Counterterrorism Snapshot: Operations and Policy Signals (March 28 – April 3)
French authorities stated that they believe Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiyya was responsible for an attempted bombing of a Bank of America in Paris. The incident occurred on March 28. The suspects arrested in connection with the attack were allegedly paid 500-1,000 euros to carry out and record the attack.
Rwanda has threatened to pull its troops out of Mozambique over U.S. sanctions imposed because of Kigali’s support for M23. For five years, Rwandan forces have been fighting ISIS in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province.
Notable Terrorist Attacks
On March 30, in Balochistan, Pakistan, the Baloch Liberation Army conducted multiple attacks across the region. These assaults targeted Pakistani security forces and a gas pipeline. At least three security personnel were killed, and four others were wounded.
On March 31, in Baghdad, Iraq, American journalist Shelly Kittleson was kidnapped. An official from the State Department said that someone connected to Kataib Hezbollah has been arrested in relation to the kidnapping.
On March 30, in County Armagh, Northern Ireland, masked gunmen robbed a food delivery driver and placed an IED in his vehicle. They then forced the driver to drive to a police station. Fortunately, the delivery driver was able to escape his vehicle and alert the police. No injuries were reported.
On April 2, in Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, a suicide bomber attacked a police station, killing at least five civilians and injuring 13 others. The attacker reportedly drove an explosive-laden vehicle into the police station.
Hotspots & Emerging Threats
Mexico’s Escalating Cartel Violence and Expanding Cross-Border Threats
By Mahmut Cengiz
- Mexican cartels, particularly CJNG and Sinaloa, have intensified operations with mass-casualty attacks, drone strikes, IEDs, and heavy weaponry, demonstrating a shift from traditional criminal activity to insurgent-style tactics that challenge state authority.
- Despite arrests, seizures, and military interventions, cartels have adapted by decentralizing, diversifying into other illicit markets (fuel theft, extortion, migrant smuggling), and integrating technology, maintaining resilience rather than collapsing under enforcement pressure.
- Cartels now function as hybrid actors capable of cross-border coercion, strategic targeting of civilians, officials, and infrastructure, and sustained asymmetric campaigns, signaling a new paradigm in transnational criminal threats that blends organized crime, insurgency, and quasi-military capabilities.
Read the rest of the analysis here.
Cocaine Trafficking, Maduro, and the International Order
By Camilo Pardo-Herrera, PhD
- The U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro is largely symbolic; it highlights political resolve and the framing of drug trafficking as a national security issue but is unlikely to dismantle Venezuela’s entrenched cocaine trafficking networks, which operate through decentralized corruption rather than a single leader.
- Global cocaine markets are resilient—U.S. and European supply chains can adapt quickly to disruptions in Venezuela, meaning Maduro’s removal may cause only short-term fluctuations in price, purity, or trafficking routes, rather than structural change.
- The operation sets a potentially troubling legal precedent: seizing a sitting head of state without multilateral authorization challenges established norms of sovereignty and may influence how powerful states project force internationally in the future.
The capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces in early 2026 marks one of the most remarkable episodes in recent international politics. Rarely has a sitting head of state been detained through a foreign military operation. The event sits at the crucial intersection of international law, geopolitics, and transnational crime. It also raises a question that goes well beyond the Caribbean: what does the arrest of a foreign leader mean for international law—and for the global cocaine trade that helped justify the operation?
Read the rest of the analysis here.
Cartels Unbound: Hybrid Warfare and the New Criminal Insurgency
By Eduardo Zerón & Mahmut Cengiz PhD.
- Drug cartels have evolved into hybrid non-state actors, blending criminal enterprise with insurgent tactics—controlling territory, deploying military-grade weapons, and using drones for surveillance, attacks, and intimidation.
- Their operations are increasingly transnational and networked, linking Latin American production zones to global markets while expanding influence across the United States, Europe, and beyond through alliances, franchising models, and supply-chain control.
- Leadership decapitation and enforcement pressure are not weakening these groups but accelerating their transformation, as seen after El Mencho’s death—creating either fragmentation into more violent cells or consolidation into even more powerful and adaptive organizations.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth hosted the first Americans Counter-Cartel Conference on March 5 at SOUTHCOM headquarters in Doral, Florida, alongside SOUTHCOM Commander Marine Gen. Francis L. Donovan. Stephen Miller, Deputy White House Chief of Staff, stated, “Cartels that operate in this hemisphere are the ISIS and Al-Qaeda of this hemisphere and must be treated just as ruthlessly,” adding that “hard power” and lethal force—not criminal justice—must be used to defeat them. Two days later, at the Shield of the Americas Summit, President Trump was direct: “Leaders in this region have allowed large swaths of territory to come under the direct control of the cartels. Transnational gangs have taken over, and they’ve run areas of your country.” These statements reflect a transformation driven by the strategic rationale of criminal organizations.
Read the rest of the analysis here.