A new report published by the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) finds that Russia’s campaign against Europe has moved well beyond conventional conflict, evolving into a sustained pattern of covert activity targeting critical infrastructure, institutions, and security systems across the continent.
The report, War Without End: Deterring Russia’s Shadow War, outlines how Russian-linked actors have carried out a range of operations across Europe, including sabotage of infrastructure, disruption of aviation and energy systems, cyber intrusions, surveillance of military sites, and targeting of political and defense figures. These activities have also included attacks and disruptions affecting transatlantic pipelines and other critical infrastructure, underscoring the reach and strategic focus of the campaign.
While individual incidents are often limited in scale and difficult to attribute, the report concludes that, collectively, they represent an ongoing effort designed to weaken European security.
The analysis by Sam Greene, David Kagan, Mathieu Boulègue, Minna Ålander, and Douglas White indicates that these activities have become more coordinated since 2022 and are now closely aligned with Russia’s broader war objectives in Ukraine. Rather than being opportunistic or temporary, the report describes this approach as a structured and enduring form of conflict embedded within Russia’s strategic framework.
A key concern highlighted in the report is that these operations are deliberately calibrated to remain below the threshold of conventional military response. This allows Russia to impose pressure and create disruption without triggering direct retaliation, increasing the risk of gradual escalation over time.
The report also finds that while European governments are increasingly aware of the threat and have begun to develop responses, those efforts have not yet produced effective deterrence. According to the analysis, the gap stems less from a lack of awareness and more from a mismatch between Russia’s methods and how Western systems are structured to respond.
The report suggests that addressing this challenge will require more consistent and coordinated changes in how European states approach deterrence, including adapting policies, frameworks, and operational responses to better align with the evolving nature of the threat.
