With the ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes against Iran intensifying, fears of reprisals within the United States have surged. Operation Epic Fury has elicited strong pledges of retaliation from Iran, which has raised concern about the possible mobilization of sleeper cell networks and sympathizers here on U.S. soil. Based on my expertise in homeland security, alongside insights from academic studies and government reports, this analysis delves into these dangers, emphasizing state-backed terror groups and the heightened vulnerabilities triggered by the recent bombing operations.
Iran’s Proxy Warfare and Embedded Networks
Iran has long been designated a primary supporter of state-sponsored terrorism, channeling resources through affiliates like Hezbollah and the IRGC to execute overseas missions. Intelligence from the CIA indicates that Iran has sustained sleeper cells here in the homeland for years for intelligence gathering, targeted killings, and alliances with local elements. These units act as a contingency, conducting pre-attack planning and surveillance, awaiting the authorization to carry out attacks in response to opposition, such as the airstrikes that have unfolded recently.
An alarming example came about in 2011 with the IRGC scheme to eliminate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, D.C. This plot ultimately reshaped U.S. assessments of domestic risks from foreign states and further demonstrated Iran’s readiness to bring the fight on American soil. From 2020 onward, authorities have neutralized more than a dozen and a half similar Iran-supported plots, often aimed at regime opponents or ex-U.S. leaders. Considering the current U.S. bombardments, the DHS has elevated its alert status, citing the likelihood of Iran triggering these networks or motivating independent radicals.
Looking at previous incidents, we can look to 2017, when federal agents apprehended two Hezbollah members in the U.S. who were engaged in reconnaissance in New York and Michigan, who were tied to Iran’s contingent of latent agents. Intelligence officials continue to highlight Iran’s efforts to maintain these cells within the country for target elimination and for partnering with illicit groups, something they have honed over the course of several decades.
Academic and Professional Perspectives on These Dangers
In the book, Homeland Security and Intelligence 2nd Edition, I outline the essential frameworks for understanding these dangers. Specifically, my contribution in Chapter 15 examines the overlap between government-orchestrated groups and individual radicalization leading to violent extremism, fostering mixed dangers where nations like Iran guide or incite solitary attackers. This underscores the power of belief-based conditioning, digital propaganda, and misinformation to boost officially endorsed terror. My research illustrates how organizations such as the IRGC capitalize on societal gaps in America, merging hidden activities with local radical movements. This method has grown more pertinent since the airstrikes, as Tehran’s messaging can certainly influence those already inclined.
Through my additional writings, such as pieces in Homeland Security Today, I stress the critical function of integrated intelligence hubs and collaborations between government and industry in neutralizing these webs. My work on countering violent extremism (CVE) programs, along with designing curricula for higher education in terrorism and homeland security studies, promotes the exchange of data to dismantle plots backed by state-sponsored terrorism. I observe that isolated perpetrators frequently act as stand-ins fighting for official terror groups in a war by proxy, minimizing traceability while optimizing effects. This perspective resonates with CIA documentation spanning four decades, which chronicles Iran’s deployment of terror to pursue strategic goals, including strikes on American assets.
Entities like the NJOHSP’s Counterterrorism Watch Unit, under the agency’s Intelligence Management Bureau, in coordination with the FBI and DHS, reinforce these concerns and continue ongoing oversight. Although no immediate dangers were flagged as of March 2, 2026, fresh evaluations by homeland security partners have alerted to countries like Iran assaulting key systems via intermediaries and digital avenues, calling for increased awareness during tense periods such as this. This approach bolsters overarching intelligence efforts, showing how collaborative efforts are essential for spotting the awakening of hidden units.
Integrating Studies on Extremism: Relevance to Iranian Networks
To better grasp these risks, we look to CVE research, especially as it pertains to Iranian affiliates and sympathizers following the recent bombing campaign. Extremism is a multifaceted evolution of mindset and actions that result in violence. During my research, I have often delved into the psychology of terrorism. In the case of Iran’s state-sponsored terrorism initiatives, we see substantial doctrinal training and personal susceptibilities, referred to as root causes to radicalization, which are then intensified by events such as Western airstrikes that amplify feelings of injustice. Tehran’s tactics attempt to harness attraction, pressure, and individual elements in extremism. Pressure elements encompass resentments from American interventions, like the current strikes, which Iran depicts as dangers to faith and independence. Attraction elements include the appeal of IRGC doctrines and other terrorist ideological facets, offering strength and spiritual compensation for counterstrikes. Individual elements, such as solitude and earlier contact with radical or extremist materials, heighten vulnerability. Analyses of Iran-aligned factions, including Hezbollah, demonstrate how the employment of digital campaigns aims to merge with radicalization and personal extremism, thus magnifying risks where solo operators or minor teams serve as force multipliers. After an event like Epic Fury, increased Iranian narratives to declare retaliation certainly hasten this, urging potential actors to mobilize or self-radicalize.
Domestic Risk Environment After Epic Fury
The Epic Fury offensive has the potential to amplify internal dangers from Iranian-backed actors, evolving from passive observation to conceivable proactive attacks. U.S. security assessments have pinpointed Iran as one of the leading threats as it relates to state-sponsored terrorism, with a calculated plan to foster internal alliances encompassing sleeper cells. As noted, officials have thwarted close to a dozen and a half Iran-connected plots in the U.S. Prominent examples include preventing attacks on figures like John Bolton, Mike Pompeo, and President Donald Trump, all frequently tied to payback for the 2020 elimination of IRGC leader Qasem Soleimani. Additional halted plans focused on activists, like the 2021 plot to assassinate Masih Alinejad, a prominent Iranian American journalist and strong opponent of the Iranian government. We also look to other examples where we intercepted members of Hezbollah performing preliminary scouting in places like New York and Texas. These cases emphasize Iran’s ongoing drive to extend operations abroad.
Gauging the Extent: Quantity and Strength of Iranian Sleeper Cells in America
Border security projections and entry statistics paint an alarming picture, with border records showing over 1,750 Iranians crossing unlawfully from 2021 to 2024 that we can track. Among them, we are cautioned to elite operatives likely hiding among them, merging into neighborhoods undetected. Though not every migrant is involved, this influx along with Iran’s use of established pathways for terror planning, implies a setup potentially comprising tens of covert cells. Spread across the U.S., concerns have raised for increased alertness after the strikes, signaling a scale justifying FBI resources to shift attention to counterterrorism to track Iran-tied individuals. The DNI’s yearly risk summary also affirms this, detailing Iran’s dedication to building substitute webs domestically, including for deadly missions. These cells display diverse strengths, including cyber-attacks, coordinated attacks across major metropolitan cities such as transportation hubs and major American iconic sites like the Statue of Liberty, all evidenced in thwarted plots by our government. Extending beyond these direct actions, we know that basic methods, like vehicular assaults, knife attacks, or firearms use, are boosted by online campaigns to spur solo players.
Likelihood of Domestic Terrorism
Attention now centers on Iran’s strained affiliate systems (e.g., diminished Hezbollah and Houthis), which could redirect toward awakening sleeper cells or sparking incidents in America and our allied nations. The FBI and its partners have boosted oversight of Iran-associated figures, redirecting personnel to counterterrorism roles amid the current threat landscape. My examinations in Homeland Security and Intelligence 2nd Edition propose that radicalized individuals might perform uncomplicated assaults, like ramming or shootings, enhanced by government-fueled virtual propaganda. Post bombing, the FBI is investigating the potential nexus to terrorism in the 6th Street mass shooting in Austin, Texas, which left two dead and fourteen injured. We know from declassified reports of Iran’s habitual use of terror for payback, as observed in prior actions against U.S. holdings in regional hotspots. Amid the regime’s dire position, the danger of attacks is at its peak, according to authorities.
Countermeasures and Future Projections
Addressing these dangers requires strengthened data integration and societal involvement, as detailed in my extremism-centered works. Regional and national security agencies like NJOHSP and DHS stress alerting on odd behaviors, while CIA reviews urge dismantling Iran’s international webs. As Epic Fury presses on, the U.S. should equilibrate offensive tactics with robust safeguards here in the homeland to avert Iranian sleeper cells and homegrown plots from materializing. Embedding extremism studies into defense plans—such as focused anti-extremism and digital rebuttals—will prove vital for tackling the intertwined nature of these risks.
