KEY TAKEAWAYS
- A majority (91%) of UAV attacks between 2006-2023 occurred in North Africa and the Middle East
- 2023 saw the highest number of UAV attacks by VNSAs, with the Houthis in Yemen responsible for 431, and ISIS responsible for 257 attacks
- VNSAs with ties to Iran are responsible for 53.9 percent of all VNSA UAV attacks
- Iraq has the highest number of attacks with 248 recorded incidents; Saudi Arabia comes in second, followed by Yemen and Israel
- VNSAs directed at military targets dropped from 57 percent in 2020 to 50.5 percent
- An increase in the number of attacks in Mexico (22 by cartels) and Myanmar (by People’s Defence Force) highlight a broader geographical distribution than that presented by the data in 2020
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have featured prominently in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, proving that small UAVs can not only support intelligence, surveillance and target acquisition, but also cause damage with destructive payloads. Earlier this month, Iran launched hundreds of drone explosives UAVs in a retaliatory attack against Israel, highlighting a growing trend in the use of UAVs for military activity by both state and VNSAs (violent non-state actors).
New research expands on a study published in Perspectives on Terrorism by Haugstvedt and Jacobsen in 2020, providing detailed statistics on the use of armed UAVs, commonly called drones, by VNSAs worldwide between 2006 and 2023. The updated report notes that the majority of UAV attacks between 2006-2023 occurred in North Africa and the Middle East, with 91.3 percent of the 1,122 recorded incidents stemming from these regions. In particular, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Israel.
Records show that the highest number of UAV attacks by VNSAs occurred in 2023, with the Houthis in Yemen and ISIS responsible for 431 and 257 attacks, respectively. Hamas, Hezbollah, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and various Iran-affiliated militia groups in Iraq and Syria join are also named as high profile VNSA groups responsible for a large number of attacks. In fact, statistics show that VNSAs with ties to Iran are responsible for 53.9 percent of all VNSA UAV attacks across the reported timeframe.
In January 2024, an Iranian-backed militia group based in Iraq killed three US soldiers and injured more than 40 with a UAV attack against a remote US military base in Jordan. When it comes to the number of deaths and injuries as a result of UAV attacks by VNSAs, the data confirms a total of 494 fatalities and 868 casualties between 2006 and 2023. Though it must be noted that this data was not available in all 1,112 recorded incidents.
Prior to 2023, the highest number of recorded UAV attacks occurred in 2017, whilst the earliest record of armed UAV use by a VNSA dating back to 2006, when Hezbollah launched three armed UAVs against Israel. There wasn’t another recorded attack until Hezbollah attacked al-Nusra in 2014, highlighting a significant variation in the number of attacks each year from 2006 to 2023.
However, in 2024, UAVs are being used extensively in conflicts across the globe; from clashes between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollahn in the Middle East to fighting between the Houthis and an international coalition in the Red Sea.
The updated study by author Håvard Haugstvedt confirms Iraq as the country with the highest number of attacks with 248 recorded incidents. Saudi Arabia comes in second, followed by Yemen and Israel. There were 38 recorded UAV attacks located in the Red Sea, In these instances, the UAV attacks were either directed at a vessel or, as was the case with many incidents in late 2023, intercepted in the Red Sea en route to a target in Israel. Additionally, an increase in the number of attacks in Mexico and Myanmar highlight a broader geographical distribution than that presented by the data in 2020.
27 recorded incidents in Myanmar predominantly involve attacks by the People’s Defence Force (PDF) against the armed forces of the military junta, who retook control of Myanmar in 2021. In Mexico there were 22 recorded incidents connected to conflicts between feuding cartels, or between cartels and the Mexican military and police forces.
The updated dataset finds that UAV attacks by VNSAs directed at military targets dropped from 57 percent in 2020 to 50.5 percent, whilst attacks with an unknown target rose from 16.8 percent in 2020 to 24.6 percent. The report acknowledges that the increase in unknown targets likely contributes to the apparent drop in attacks on military targets, as it concludes that the information gathered remains consistent with the patterns identified in 2020, in that most VNSAs choose targets discriminately, and direct most of their UAV attacks against hard or hardened targets.
However, the study points to the Houthis in Yemen as a VNSA with a broader targeting strategy who are more inclined to use UAVs as a strategic weapon in attacks against civilian targets, with stats confirming that the group was responsible for 100 percent of the recorded attacks against commercial shipping vessels, 88.2 percent of attacks against civilian airports and 28 percent of the attacks against private citizens and property.
In terms of the effectiveness of armed UAVs, it is revealed that of the 1,112 recorded UAV attacks, just over half (50.8 percent) were successful, whilst 37.3 percent were intercepted. This differs from the 2020 research which found that just 21 percent of attacks were recorded as intercepted.
Haugstvedt states that the war between Ukraine and Russia has shown how small UAVs can support intelligence, surveillance and target acquisition, and demonstrated how even commercial off-the-shelf UAVs and first-person view (FPV) UAVs are capable of dropping grenades onto enemies or flying directly into them, setting off destructive payloads.
In closing, researchers discuss how showcasing the combat potential of UAVs by both state and VNSAs through various media formats will likely encourage VNSAs who have not yet incorporated UAVs into their repertoire, to do so.
Read the full report here.