The Rising Toll of Targeted Violence: Prevention Through Behavioral Threat Assessment and Management

Editor’s Note: In the wake of recent tragic and high-profile incidents of targeted violence and terrorism, individuals often ask “what can be done?” In this article, the authors provide a short primer on behavioral threat assessment and management (BTAM), highlight its strengths as a form of secondary prevention, identify areas for improvement, and end with recommendations for what policymakers, schools, workplaces, communities and practitioners can do to realize the full potential of BTAM.   

Targeted violence continues to exact devastating costs on schools, workplaces, and communities. While such attacks may feel random or unpredictable, research shows they are often preventable. One of the most promising approaches to prevention is Behavioral Threat Assessment and Management (BTAM), a systematic, evidence-based process designed to identify and manage potential threats before they escalate into violence.   

What BTAM Is (and Isn’t)   

BTAM is not about predicting who will commit violence. Instead, it focuses on early intervention. Multidisciplinary teams, including education professionals, law enforcement, mental health providers, and social services, work together to evaluate behavioral concerns and implement constructive strategies that divert individuals from pathways toward violence.   

An effective BTAM process involves:   

  • Identifying concerning behaviors on a continuous basis. 
  • Conducting fact-finding inquiries to inform assessment. 
  • Evaluating risk and protective factors across individual, situational, and social domains. 
  • Implementing tailored intervention strategies that balance accountability with support.

Protective factors such as strong social networks and access to mental health care can mitigate risks, while unaddressed grievances, isolation, or aggression may elevate them. Through a structured and systematic approach, BTAM teams assess the level of concern and connect individuals with resources such as counseling, mentoring, or academic support, before situations escalate into violence.   

Beyond Zero Tolerance: Why BTAM Works   

Research demonstrates that BTAM can offer a safer, more effective alternative to “zero tolerance” policies, which too often rely on suspension, expulsion, or law enforcement referrals. These punitive measures not only fail to address underlying problems but can increase the risk of academic decline and delinquency.   

Studies evaluating structured threat assessment models, including the Virginia Student Threat Assessment Guidelines (VSTAG) and the Comprehensive School Threat Assessment Guidelines (CSTAG), show more promising outcomes. For example, one study found that students assessed through these models were more likely to receive counseling or a parent conference and less likely to face suspension, expulsion, or arrest.  

Connecting Students to Support, Not Punishment   

A consistent benefit of BTAM is its ability to link individuals with mental health and social support. In Florida, an analysis of 2021–2022 school threat assessment cases revealed that one-third of students referred to BTAM teams were connected with a counselor, psychologist, or social worker, and in nearly all cases, those services were delivered.   

By addressing underlying concerns such as depression, anxiety, or social isolation, BTAM reduces risk factors while strengthening protective factors that keep individuals from progressing toward violence.   

Building Safer School Climates   

BTAM also improves the overall climate of safety. Research comparing middle schools that adopted VSTAG with those that did not found that in schools using the Virginia Guidelines, teachers reported feeling safer, and students reported lower rates of bullying and victimization. A healthier climate not only deters violence but also supports mental health and academic success, creating schools where educators, law enforcement, and mental health professionals can work side by side toward prevention.   

Keys to Effective BTAM   

Effective BTAM does not happen by chance. Research identifies several practices that strengthen success:   

  • Multidisciplinary collaboration: Teams with diverse expertise can design more effective, tailored interventions. 
  • Community trust: Programs that foster broad buy-in are more sustainable than those perceived as punitive or narrowly focused. 
  • Evidence-based tools: Structured professional judgment models outperform unstructured approaches. 
  • Institutional support: Schools and organizations must provide training, resources, and leadership support to sustain BTAM.

Challenges That Remain: The Professional Standards, Information Sharing, and Policy Gap Triad   

Professional Standards Still Undefined   

One of the most pressing challenges is the lack of widely recognized professional standards for BTAM practitioners. Unlike psychology, social work, or law enforcement, BTAM lacks a universally accepted framework for qualifications, competencies, and ethics. Training programs vary widely in depth and focus, leaving teams inconsistently prepared.   

Without standards, BTAM risks being viewed as an “optional” initiative rather than a recognized discipline. This undermines credibility, complicates policy adoption, and limits buy-in from leadership. Establishing clear standards strengthens practice quality, enhances legitimacy, and ensures broader adoption.   

Information Sharing Roadblocks   

Information silos remain a major obstacle. Practitioners may hesitate to share critical information out of fear of violating privacy laws like FERPA and HIPAA, even when exceptions for imminent safety risks would permit disclosure. This lack of clarity can lead to delays in intervention and missed opportunities to connect individuals displaying concerning behaviors with support services.   

In the corporate sector, confidentiality rules and risk-averse legal postures frequently prevent effective information sharing handoffs to law enforcement or community partners. Additionally, law enforcement and mental health professionals may withhold critical details due to police records confidentiality or patient privilege concerns, weakening cross-disciplinary coordination.   

Policy Gaps and Leadership Inertia   

The lack of legislative and procedural frameworks to guide BTAM operations poses a significant barrier to effective assessment and management. Even well-trained teams struggle without clear authority, consistent protocols, or legal protections. The Department of Homeland Security’s Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships (CP3) took initial steps to promote policy frameworks by working with state partners to operationalize prevention strategies. Although CP3 has been severely cut in recent months, the urgent need for comprehensive policy and governance support remains.   

A Call to Action: From Awareness to Operationalization   

Targeted violence is not inevitable. BTAM has demonstrated its ability to prevent tragedies by identifying concerns early, building bridges between disciplines, and connecting individuals to the support they need. However, the promise of BTAM cannot be fully realized without standards, policies, and widespread community commitment.   

Now is the time for:  

  • Policy makers to craft clear frameworks that empower BTAM teams. 
  • Schools and corporations to invest in training and institutional support. 
  • Communities to build trust and collaboration across silos. 
  • Practitioners to advocate for professional standards that legitimize and strengthen the field.

By professionalizing and operationalizing BTAM, we can help transform prevention from an aspiration into a reality at the national level, and build safer, stronger communities where violence is not the expectation, but the exception. 

VIOLENCE PREVENTION NOTICE: Warning signs often appear before violent acts. If someone you know makes general or specific threats, shows unusual interest in weapons, or fixates on previous violent incidents, you’re not overreacting by taking action. Ask direct questions and help them connect with professional support (or alert authorities if danger is immediate). Your intervention can prevent tragedy.

Bruno Dias is the former Associate Director for the Department of Homeland Security's Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships, where he was dedicated to preventing incidents of targeted violence and terrorism nationally.

Prior to his tenure at DHS, Bruno oversaw K-12 safety and security functions for medium and large school districts, with a focus on threat assessment. His extensive background also includes researching incidents of targeted violence, managing security and violence prevention initiatives for a Fortune 10 company, and serving in a distinguished law enforcement career, where he led a regionally recognized homicide and violent crimes task force.

Bruno is the Co-Founder and Principal of Key Operational Insights (KOI), a consulting firm that provides expertise in Behavioral Threat Assessment and Management (BTAM), workplace violence prevention, school safety, and protective intelligence to government, corporate, and educational organizations.

Bruno is a published author and holds a Ph.D. in Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, complemented by postgraduate degrees in Homeland Defense and Security Studies and Criminal Justice. He is a graduate of the FBI National Academy and is both a board-certified investigator and a Certified Threat Manager (CTM) through the Association of Threat Assessment Professionals.

Theo Warner previously worked as a Research Analyst at the Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships, where he developed evidence-based resources for targeted violence and terrorism prevention practitioners, including literature reviews, synthesis papers, and case studies for training materials. Theo received a dual master's degree in Russian, East European, and Eurasian Studies and Global Policy Studies from the University of Texas at Austin in 2023.

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