Frontline Watch provides a weekly update on emerging terrorist activities and global threat trends, with Counterterrorism Managing Editor Dr. Mahmut Cengiz examining the developments shaping the security landscape both domestically and internationally, with research assistance from Sean Dilallo.
This week’s edition broadens its focus on the spread of Salafi-jihadism, a trend that has intensified over the past decade. When this ideological expansion converges with triggering events—such as the October 7 Hamas terrorist attacks or recent strikes involving Iran—it increases the risk of lone-actor attacks by self-radicalized individuals in Western countries. The edition also examines the growing threat posed by JNIM in Africa through two articles by Mahmut Cengiz: “The Global Spread of Salafi-Jihadism and Its Enduring Security Threat” and “JNIM’s Expansion in the Sahel and Coastal West Africa.”
The edition also provides a review of U.S. military operations and policy signals related to counterterrorism, as well as notable terrorist attacks recorded between March 14 and March 20.
Hotspots & Emerging Threats
The Global Spread of Salafi-Jihadism and Its Enduring Security Threat
By Mahmut Cengiz
- Salafi-jihadist ideology remains a persistent global threat, fueling terrorism despite leadership losses and counterterrorism efforts. Its resilience is rooted in deeply ingrained doctrinal narratives that continue to justify violence across generations.
- Extremist networks continue to expand across regions and online, enhancing recruitment and global collaboration. Digital platforms, in particular, have lowered barriers to radicalization and enabled worldwide reach with minimal physical infrastructure.
- Recent global conflicts—most notably the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks on Israel and subsequent regional escalation involving Israel, the United States, and Iran—have caused significant civilian casualties and instability, creating fertile ground for jihadist narratives and operational activity.
- The true long-term threat is ideology, not just attacks, because it enables militant movements to continually reinvent themselves. Even if their operational skills decline, the ideological base sustains future waves of extremism.
Salafi-jihadist terrorism remains a persistent and adaptive global threat, driven less by short-term geopolitical shocks than by the continued spread of Salafi-jihadist ideology. While recent regional escalations—including U.S.–Israel strikes on Iranian targets and Iran’s retaliatory actions—have heightened instability, they do not fundamentally alter the structural drivers of terrorism. Instead, the endurance of jihadist movements reflects long-term dynamics: ideological cohesion, permissive environments in fragile states, and resilient transnational networks. Understanding these underlying factors is essential to assessing the trajectory of terrorism in 2026 and beyond.
Read the rest of the analysis here.
JNIM’s Expansion in the Sahel and Coastal West Africa
By Mahmut Cengiz
- JNIM has emerged as one of al-Qaeda’s most powerful African affiliates since its 2017 formation, consolidating multiple jihadist groups under a unified command structure. This merger significantly enhanced coordination, recruitment across diverse communities, and the group’s overall operational capacity in the Sahel.
- The group’s operational tempo and lethality have increased sharply between 2021 and 2024, with attacks and casualties rising each year. This trend reflects improved force projection, stronger intelligence networks, and the ability to execute more complex, large-scale assaults.
- JNIM is expanding from the Sahel into the Gulf of Guinea, turning border areas in countries like Benin, Togo, and Côte d’Ivoire into active jihadist frontlines. Its cross-border operations take advantage of porous borders and weak government presence, indicating a shift toward ongoing regional growth.
- Weak governance, local grievances, and illicit economies are enabling JNIM’s entrenchment, particularly in fragile borderlands. By embedding within communal conflicts and smuggling networks, the group strengthens its resilience, recruitment, and long-term sustainability.
Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin was established in 2017 through the merger of Ansar al-Din, al-Murabitun, the Macina Liberation Front, and the Sahara Emirate, a faction affiliated with al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. Led by founder and emir Iyad ag Ghali, the coalition pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda and quickly became one of its most important African affiliates, second only to al-Shabaab in reach and influence. By uniting various Islamist militant groups across the Sahel, JNIM increased operational coordination and drew fighters from Tuareg, Fulani, Arab, and other communities. Since its founding, the group has conducted a continuous insurgency against regional governments, foreign military forces, and rival jihadist groups, establishing itself as a dominant extremist power in West Africa.
Rooted in Salafi-jihadism and aligned with al-Qaeda’s global goals, JNIM aims to enforce its interpretation of Sharia law while opposing Western influence and Sahelian governments it views as instruments of neo-colonial control. Its long-term plan includes unifying jihadist groups, removing foreign military forces, weakening state authority, and ultimately creating an Islamic proto-state centered in Mali with growth toward the wider Sahel and Gulf of Guinea coast. By blending centralized ideological leadership with decentralized operational flexibility, JNIM has shown adaptability, territorial ambitions, and ongoing lethality—solidifying its role as one of the most significant and evolving jihadist threats in the region today.
The operational trajectory of JNIM shows a clear and steady increase in both speed and lethality, as illustrated in Figure 1 below. According to GTTAC data, recorded incidents grew from 171 in 2021 to 362 in 2022, more than doubling in just one year, and continued rising to 369 in 2023 before reaching 474 in 2024. Casualties followed a similarly concerning trend, rising from 1,828 in 2021 to 2,595 in 2022, 3,198 in 2023, and jumping to 4,609 in 2024. This upward pattern indicates not only more frequent attacks but also improved operational effectiveness, better coordination across border regions, and the ability to carry out larger, more complex assaults. The significant increase in casualties in 2024, in particular, suggests that JNIM has strengthened its force projection, access to weaponry, and intelligence networks, establishing itself as the most dominant and adaptable jihadist group in the Sahel.
Figure 1: Attacks and Casualties by JNIM (2021-2024)
Initially anchored in northern and central Mali, JNIM has steadily expanded throughout the central Sahel and into coastal West Africa, particularly Burkina Faso, Niger, Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, and Togo. Its southward push has transformed littoral borderlands—especially the Benin–Niger–Nigeria tri-border zone—into a significant jihadist front. Between 2024 and 2025, violent events involving jihadist groups in this region increased by roughly 86 percent, while related fatalities surged by over 260 percent, illustrating not just spatial spread but an escalation in lethality and civilian risk.
JNIM’s expansion here signals a strategic shift from isolated attacks to a sustained presence, exploiting weak governance, porous borders, and limited regional security coordination. According to the map using ACLED data, the group has publicly claimed a series of attacks along the Benin–Nigeria border—including in locations such as Basso, Wara, Nuku, and Karunji—marking its first acknowledged operations inside Nigeria and broadcasting its intent to project power far beyond traditional Sahel strongholds. Moreover, the guerrilla network’s early use of natural terrain as bases—especially forest belts and the W-Arly-Pendjari (WAP) protected area complex—has facilitated movement, concealment, and logistical staging across international borders.
Figure 2: Violent Events involving Militant Groups between 1 January 2025 and 20 February 2026
Structural conditions in the borderlands have strengthened JNIM’s foothold. Limited government presence, reduced cross-border cooperation following ECOWAS withdrawals, and the fragmented response capacity of local militias and security forces have created welcoming environments for jihadist expansion. The group has expanded its recruitment beyond single ethnic groups, drawing fighters from Fulani, Gourmantche, Djerma, Bariba, and other communities, while also co-opting local bandits and taking advantage of communal tensions rooted in farmer-herder conflicts and economic marginalization. This localized presence allows JNIM to maintain manpower and reinforce networks that support both militant movement and resilience against counter-insurgency efforts.
Economically, jihadists—including JNIM—have integrated into local subsistence and illegal trade networks, utilizing smuggling routes especially along the Niger and Mekrou rivers and fuel transport corridors linking northwestern Nigeria with Niger and Benin. These logistical connections have expanded militant operational reach and fostered informal economies that indirectly connect some civilian livelihoods to extremist activity through reliance on transportation, taxation, and “protection” arrangements.
JNIM also maintains strategic links with Nigerian jihadist groups. Its connections with Jamaat Ansar al-Muslimeen fi Bilad al-Sudan (Ansaru) reinforce longstanding cooperation patterns, while neighboring groups like Boko Haram and the Mahmuda faction operate in overlapping areas, sometimes coordinating on specific operations. This network of interconnected jihadist factions makes it more difficult to attribute and understand threats, highlighting a conflict environment where militants are increasingly visible, competitive, and operationally intertwined.
Counterterrorism Snapshot: U.S. Operations and Policy Signals (March 14 – March 20)
On March 15, 2026, near Mubraraak, Somalia, U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) carried out airstrikes against Al-Shabaab in coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia. On the following day, near the Golis Mountains, AFRICOM carried out strikes against ISIS-Somalia.
On March 19, 2026, in the Eastern Pacific, U.S. Southern Command (USSOUTCOM) carried out a strike targeting a boat engaged in drug trafficking. USSOUTCHOM stated the boat was operated by a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO).
Notable Terrorist Attacks
On March 16, 2026, in Maiduguri, Nigeria, multiple suicide bombings killed at least 23 people and injured 108. The bombings targeted a police post, a popular market, a hospital, and a neighborhood. Boko Haram is believed to be behind the attacks. ISWAP also carried out attacks on multiple military bases in the region the previous night.
On March 17, 2026, in Baghdad, Iraq, the U.S. embassy was targeted in multiple drone and rocket attacks. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq and other pro-Iranian militias have been carrying out frequent rocket and drone attacks targeting U.S. diplomatic and military facilities in Iraq.
On March 18, 2026, in Borno, Nigeria, Nigerian soldiers killed at least 80 militants while repelling an attack on their base. The attack followed a spate of attacks in Borno’s capital, Maiduguri.
