A new study examines how artificial intelligence (AI) may influence terrorism in the coming years, finding that the technology is more likely to strengthen existing extremist trends than create entirely new forms of terrorism.
The brief, authored by Daniel Byman and V.S. Subrahmanian, explores how AI could affect areas including terrorist recruitment, propaganda, information operations, operational support, and counterterrorism efforts.
The analysis argues that AI may reinforce trends already shaping the terrorism landscape, including decentralized movements, lone-actor violence, digital propaganda, and information warfare. Rather than replacing traditional terrorist tactics, AI is expected to provide new tools that allow individuals and groups to improve existing methods.
The report also highlights that AI will create opportunities for governments and law enforcement agencies to strengthen counterterrorism capabilities, including through improved analysis and threat detection. However, the authors note that these advancements will require careful oversight due to concerns involving privacy and civil liberties.
Historically, terrorist organizations have often adopted technology selectively rather than serving as early innovators. The brief notes that groups frequently operate under resource constraints and prioritize methods that are reliable, affordable, and effective, such as firearms, improvised explosive devices, suicide attacks, and vehicle-based assaults.
At the same time, terrorist groups have demonstrated the ability to adapt existing technologies for new purposes. The report points to examples including the use of aviation and suicide tactics during the September 11 attacks, the Islamic State’s extensive use of social media for propaganda and recruitment, and Hezbollah’s integration of drones, precision-guided weapons, and information operations.
According to the analysis, AI’s most significant impact on terrorism may come from lowering barriers for extremists by making certain activities faster, cheaper, and more accessible. This includes generating propaganda, tailoring recruitment messages, supporting online radicalization efforts, producing disinformation, and helping organizations maintain operations.
The brief cautions that focusing only on the possibility of highly sophisticated AI-enabled attacks could overlook the broader ways terrorist groups use technology to sustain themselves and expand influence.
The authors argue that democratic societies will need to develop institutional safeguards, regulatory approaches, and public-private partnerships to address AI-related security challenges while continuing to evaluate how rapidly evolving technology changes the threat environment.
The report published by the Center for Strategic & International Studies, concludes that AI’s role in terrorism and counterterrorism will require continued monitoring and regular reassessment as capabilities develop and both threat actors and security organizations adapt.
