The Venezuelan crisis has reached a critical turning point. With the deployment of U.S. military forces in the Caribbean and increasingly harsh statements from Washington, the end of Nicolás Maduro’s regime appears imminent. Yet the central question is not only the fall of the Venezuelan president, but rather the future of the country and who will take power.
Several scenarios are possible: a pro-U.S. government led by opposition figures, an internal transition managed by moderate chavistas, or the rise of a narco regime sustained by criminal networks and oligarchic interests. The latter represents the most concrete risk of Venezuela’s transformation into a criminal state.
U.S. Military and Diplomatic Pressure
In recent months, the United States has intensified its military presence in the region. The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, accompanied by approximately 15,000 troops and a dozen warships, has been deployed off the Venezuelan coast.
President Donald Trump declared publicly: “Maduro’s days are numbered,” suggesting that Washington does not exclude direct action. Pentagon sources describe Operation “Southern Spear” as an anti-drug campaign, but many analysts interpret it as a cover for targeted operations against the regime.
The State Department has reiterated: “The United States will continue to support the Venezuelan people in their struggle for democracy and against Maduro’s tyranny.”
Reactions from Caracas
Maduro responded with defiance, mobilizing nearly 200,000 soldiers and calling on the population to resist. In a televised address he stated: “Venezuelans will fight for their homeland. No one should interfere in our affairs, and to imperialism we say: get out, leave Venezuela alone.”
The government has strengthened ties with Russia, which condemned U.S. operations as “dangerous provocations.” Moscow has sent military advisers and weapons, consolidating an alliance that complicates the scenario further.
Pro-U.S. Scenario
Washington continues to view Juan Guaidó, María Corina Machado, and Leopoldo López as ideal successors.
- Juan Guaidó was recognized by the U.S. as interim president in 2019.
- María Corina Machado is a radical opposition leader, strongly aligned with U.S. positions.
- Leopoldo López, founder of Voluntad Popular, lives in exile and maintains close ties with Washington.
However, their domestic popularity is extremely low. According to Hinterlaces polls in 2025, Guaidó faces 92 percent unfavorable opinions, López 88 percent, and Machado 80 percent. This makes it difficult to imagine a stable government led by these figures without heavy external support.
Moderate Chavista Scenario
Another possibility is that pragmatic sectors of the PSUV or less radical military figures assume power. This scenario would provide greater internal legitimacy and institutional continuity, but would face skepticism from Washington.
The risk is that radical chavistas would resist violently, generating internal conflict. Nevertheless, analysts argue this is the most realistic solution on the ground, as it maintains a base of popular support and reduces the risk of immediate destabilization.
Narco Regime Scenario
The most concrete risk is the rise of a narco regime.
- Cartel de los Soles: designated by the U.S. as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in July 2025. Comprised of military officers and state officials, it maintains direct ties to drug trafficking.
- Tren de Aragua: a transnational gang born in Venezuelan prisons, now active across Latin America. Involved in drug trafficking, extortion, and human trafficking.
- Oligarchs in oil and gold sectors: corrupt entrepreneurs with financial resources capable of sustaining a leader interested only in profit.
According to UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk, the human rights situation in Venezuela “has worsened with arbitrary detentions, torture, and enforced disappearances.” The UN has also described U.S. attacks on Venezuelan vessels as “extrajudicial executions” and called for “urgent de-escalation.”
Comparative Analysis of Scenarios
- Pro-U.S.: ensures international support but lacks domestic legitimacy.
- Moderate chavismo: more realistic on the ground, but less acceptable to Washington.
- Narco regime: a predatory system, increasing corruption and violence, with Venezuela at risk of becoming a criminal hub.
Conclusion
Venezuela stands at a historic crossroads. The international community must confront not only the challenge of regime change, but also the risk that the country becomes an epicenter of organized crime and regional instability.
The fall of Maduro does not automatically guarantee a democratic future. Without a clear transition plan, Venezuela risks plunging into a new phase of chaos, dominated by cartels, oligarchs, and foreign interests.
Sources
- U.S. Department of the Treasury – OFAC Press Release (July 2025) Designation of the Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases
- Donald Trump – Public Statements (2025) Coverage of Trump’s remarks on Venezuela, including “Maduro’s days are numbered”. https://www.cbsnews.com
- Volker Türk, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights – Report to the Human Rights Council (June 2025) Statement on worsening human rights conditions in Venezuela. https://www.ohchr.org/en/statements-and-speeches
- UN Security Council Statement (October 2025) UN News coverage describing U.S. attacks on Venezuelan vessels as “extrajudicial executions” and calling for “urgent de-escalation”. https://news.un.org/en
- Human Rights Watch – World Report 2025 Documentation of repression, arbitrary arrests, and violations of rights in Venezuela. https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2025
- Amnesty International – Statement to the EU (2025) “The EU must heed the wake-up call on Venezuela’s human rights crisis.” https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news
