Both the Trump and Biden administrations dramatically reduced counterterrorism resources in favor of great power competition with China and Russia. But, after revisiting an analysis in Inter Populum: The Journal of Irregular Warfareand Special Operations, this bipartisan pivot represents what may be a profound strategic miscalculation that could accelerate the very authoritarian world order the United States seeks to prevent.
In “Counterterrorism is Strategic Competition,” originally published October 15, 2023, Thomas R. Searle of Joint Special Operations University argued that counterterrorism (CT) operations are not a distraction from strategic competition but are central to it. By withdrawing counterterrorism support from vulnerable partner nations, the U.S. set in motion what Searle called a “five-step path to disaster.”
The Five-Step Cycle
Searle outlined how U.S. withdrawal of CT support leads to increased terrorist destabilization in partner nations, which then turn to authoritarian competitors like China or Russia for assistance. These authoritarian powers provide CT solutions that include heavy-handed repression, surveillance technology, and legal reforms that criminalize all opposition, not just violent extremists. The result: nations become more stable but less democratic, locked into authoritarian governance that opposes U.S. interests.
This pattern is already evident across Africa, Asia, and the Pacific. China has expanded security assistance programs continent-wide, while Russia’s Wagner Group has replaced Western CT partnerships in Mali, Mozambique, the Central African Republic, and beyond.
CT as Governance Competition
Searle emphasized that how governments respond to violent extremism fundamentally determines whether they remain democratic or become authoritarian. While terrorist groups are not agents of Beijing or Moscow, failing to support threatened governments in their CT efforts effectively concedes the competition for influence to authoritarian powers.
The article warns that the U.S. must recognize CT assistance as essential to advancing democratic governance globally, not as a legacy mission competing for resources with strategic competition. Without this recognition, America continues to risk forfeiting influence to China and Russia one vulnerable nation at a time.
The analysis appears as part of a new Strategic Competition Series launched jointly by Inter Populum and Small Wars Journal, examining how irregular warfare intersects with great power competition. Click here for Inter Populum’s website and here to read Small Wars Journal.