NOAA has launched a groundbreaking new suite of operational, artificial intelligence (AI)-driven global weather prediction models, marking a significant advancement in forecast speed, efficiency, and accuracy. The models will provide forecasters with faster delivery of more accurate guidance, while using a fraction of computational resources.
“NOAA’s strategic application of AI is a significant leap forward in American weather model innovation,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., NOAA administrator. “These AI models reflect a new paradigm for NOAA in providing improved accuracy for large-scale weather and tropical tracks, and faster delivery of forecast products to meteorologists and the public at a lower cost through drastically reduced computational expenses.”
The new suite of AI weather models includes three distinct applications:
- AIGFS (Artificial Intelligence Global Forecast System): A weather forecast model that implements AI to deliver improved weather forecasts more quickly and efficiently (using up to 99.7% less computing resources) than its traditional counterpart.
- AIGEFS (Artificial Intelligence Global Ensemble Forecast System): An AI-based ensemble system that provides a range of probable forecast outcomes to meteorologists and decision-makers. Early results show improved performance over the traditional GEFS, extending forecast skill by an additional 18 to 24 hours.
- HGEFS (Hybrid-GEFS): A pioneering, hybrid “grand ensemble” that combines the new AI-based AIGEFS (above) with NOAA’s flagship ensemble model, the Global Ensemble Forecast System. Initial testing shows that this model, a first-of-its kind approach for an operational weather center, consistently outperforms both the AI-only and physics-only ensemble systems.
The original announcement can be found here.