‘System Target Forecasting’: A New and Practical Method of Mineral Deposit Prospecting

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The exploration for new oil, gas or metals is now a multibillion-dollar complex business. This industry has always been high-risk, as required investments are often large and do not always justify themselves, and even “medium-profit” deposits in the world are found less and less often. One of the reasons for the low probability of discovering deposits, even with huge volumes of exploratory drilling, is methodologically obsolete scientific theories. Until now, the basis for the forecasting of a potential deposit are either based upon analogies or various hypotheses about the genesis of deposits.

Meanwhile, there are theoretical and practical frameworks for switching to new forecasting methods by direct measurements of the intensity of a variety of real physical fields, such as those based on magnetic and gravitational phenomenon. Based on the large volume of theoretical and experimental work, a highly efficient search methodology called “Systematic Target Forecasting” of promising areas with potential mineral deposits has now been developed and applied. This method enables, without appreciable risk, making financial investments in the exploration of mineral resources. The main theoretical basis of the method was the unsurpassed work of physicist and mathematician Ilya Lvovitch Gerlovin [1].

The methodology is of interest for venture, investment and manufacturing companies – as it takes a minimal of time to conduct a survey of large areas and yields a maximum result in the form of coordinates of prospective areas with potential mineral deposits. The application of the new methodology makes it possible to conduct long-term geological prospecting in the short-term territory, to search for and locate prospective areas with potential mineral deposits, such as:

  • Hydrocarbons (oil, gas);
  • Ores (metal, radioactive);
  • Diamonds; and
  • Underground water

The most important advantages of the new methodology are:

 The search survey is performed without the need for physical presence on a given territory or any personnel and equipment.

 An advanced survey of territories that are of interest to a customer is conducted without notification to the owner of the territory and prior to registration of a license for conducting prospecting and exploration.

 The effectiveness of traditional prospecting methods of geological exploration in non-surveyed territories is:

– for hydrocarbons not more than 25 percent;

– for ore no more than 15 percent.

 The effectiveness of the exploratory survey using the “Systematic Target Forecasting” methodology for determining the location of prospective areas with the presence of potential mineral deposits is 96 percent.

 The search survey is conducive to any territory, including those that are considered to be well studied, populated areas, territories occupied by agriculture, as well as those under the seas and oceans.

 Terms of exploratory survey times of territories:

50, 000 – 100,000 sq. km = 3 – 6 months

100, 000 – 1,000,000 sq. km = 3 – 8 months

In terms of a comparison between traditional and new methods, please see below:

Traditional methods:

The survey period is 50,000.0 sq. km. – not less than 5 – 7 years;

The effectiveness of the survey of new territories is not more than 25 percent.

The total costs of geological exploration companies (world statistics) for a typical search survey is:

(depending on the region):

$20,000 to 70,000 for approximately 1 sq. km

New methodology “System Target Forecasting”:

The survey period is 50, 000 sq. km. – 4 months;

The survey period is 200,000 sq. km. – up to 6 months;

The efficiency of the survey of new territories is about 96 percent.

A search survey makes it possible to determine the location of prospective areas and the presence of potential mineral deposits (with their actual availability in the surveyed territory) on the surveyed territory. The cost is determined when negotiating an order, but prices are coming down.

Initial information for the survey

To perform a survey of a territory using this new methodology and determine the location of unexplored (not yet discovered) mineral deposits in the entire surveyed territory, the results of measuring the surveys of gravitational and magnetic fields are needed:

Gravitational and magnetic survey: scale 1: 1,000,000

Electronic tables XYZ or grid files in GRD format or map of isolines of the gravitational field Δg in the reduction of the Bug and the magnetic field ΔZ or ΔT.

Gravitational and magnetic survey: scale 1: 200,000

Electronic tables XYZ or grid files in GRD format or map of isolines of the gravitational field Δg in the reduction of the Bug and the magnetic field ΔZ or ΔT).

Gravitational and magnetic survey: scale 1: 50 000(1: 10,000)

Electronic tables XYZ or grid files in GRD format or map of isolines of the gravitational field Δg in the reduction of the Bug and the magnetic field ΔZ or ΔT).

Thus, a new effective information system, “System Target Forecasting”, with the following processing geological and geophysical information is proposed (see Fig 1 below).

Figure 1. A block-scheme for processing geological and geophysical information according to the “System-Targeted Forecasting” methodology.

As an example of its effectiveness, we will cite the results of the forecast assessment of a territory in the Republic of Bulgaria for oil.

In the first phase, data from gravitational and magnetic fields of 1:200,000 were processed. The results of processing in the form of promising areas in search of oil fields are shown in Figure 2.

The second stage processed the results of a 1:50,000 gravitational and magnetic field survey on a detail ingesendes (highlighted in red). This made it possible to identify potential oil deposits (Figure 3).

Processing of seismic surveys according to the “System-Targeted Forecasting” methodology showed the presence of oil deposits (Figure 4).

Comparison of the results of predictive models based on gravitational and magnetic fields and seismic sensing showed their almost complete coincidence, which emphasizes the objectivity of the results (Figure 5).

Figure 2. The results of the forecast estimate of the Republic of Bulgaria for the identification of oil fields based on the results of geophysical surveys of the scale of 1:200,000.

Figure 3. Oil isolinium map based on 1:50,000 geophysical survey results.

Figure 4. The results of the allocation of potential oil deposits based on the processing of seismic data.

Figure 5. Combining the results of the allocation of potential oil deposits based on the processing of gravel-magnetic and seismic data.

Conclusion

Simply stated, this new method can be used to identify virtually all major minerals – oil, gas, diamonds, metals, and water – with huge savings in their search combined with the highest probability of detection  (about 96 percent accuracy).

References

  1. Gerlovin I.L. “Base of united theory of all interaction in the matter”, Leningrad, Energoatomizdat, 1990, p. 432.
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Prof. Dr. Vladimir Pakhomov has a PhD in Geological-Mineralogical Sciences and teaches or taught at the Moscow State Geological Prospecting Academy on a variety of subjects, such as: forecasting, mineral exploration, mathematical methods in geology, geologic interpretation of geophysical data, computer methods of forecasting, fundamentals of geo-information science, multidimensional simulation, mining of new methods for forecasting of uranium, gold, diamond and other mineral deposits, he is actively involved in assisting manufacturing entities in industrial processes and analysis. He is also an Academician of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, a world-wide expert on reserves, as well as an Academician of the International Academy of Mineral Resources. He has many other awards and professional accomplishments. He is married and has one child.

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