We at Homeland Security Today have once again reached out to our Editorial Board, columnists, and community of subject-matter experts to ask for their assessment of the threats facing the nation in 2025. As our readers know, our experts come from a unique cadre with practical experience who have devoted their careers to defending and protecting America. In this three-part series, we share their assessments of the risks and vulnerabilities that should be at the forefront of our community.
“As much as some things change, some things remain the same.”
These forecasts converge on broad themes that are no surprise to the homeland security community – terrorism, unmanned aircraft systems, cyber risks, threats from China, insider threats – and they also present broader topics, such as the national debt and our healthcare infrastructure, as areas of vulnerability that require immediate attention and focus. The homeland security community is faced with potential risks from numerous political, social, domestic and international threats and must adapt to the evolving technological landscape like artificial intelligence and quantum computing, while maintaining vigilance toward the ongoing threat from the Taliban, Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), China, and Russia.
What follows has been categorized into three sections, those forecasts dealing with >>Terrorism (lone actors, ISIS, DVE),
>>Advanced Technology (cybersecurity, UAS), and
>>Multidimensional Threats (political polarization, biotechnology, supply chains).
Some assessments are excerpts from the full submissions, but their content will be available in its entirety as well, and we encourage you to follow the links and read the comprehensive information shared here. We also appeal to you to share your thoughts and ideas with us. We prize those “on the ground” and want to be sure that we share information with the community.
Whether a new threat on the horizon or the familiar threat that’s arisen in varied forms over the years, the following collection of assessments is a comprehensive and honest look into our challenges. It’s also a conversation starter for developing the ways we can move forward in our efforts to strengthen our safety and security, and ensure that every facet of homeland security is ready to face and defeat its adversaries.
Terrorism
Global Terrorism
Despite shifting U.S. security priorities, such as the growing military and economic challenges posed by Russia and China, terrorism remains a top concern. The Global Terrorism Trends and Analysis Center (GTTAC), which compiles data for the U.S. Department of State’s annual terrorism reports, consistently records between 7,000 and 9,000 terrorist attacks yearly. Over the past three years, more than 55 percent of these attacks have been attributed to Salafi-jihadist terrorist groups. In 2024, GTTAC documented over 8,000 attacks, with Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda affiliates continuing to be major perpetrators.
ISIS-Core in Syria, along with its affiliates in Nigeria, the Sahel, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, were responsible for a significant number of attacks in 2024 … Al-Shabaab, another Al-Qaeda affiliate, showed a decline in attacks in Somalia in 2024 but remains capable of using complex tactics, such as suicide bombings and vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs). More critically, Al-Qaeda has benefited from Taliban rule in Afghanistan, which has enabled the group to re-establish itself.
The U.S. has focused more on the strategic threat posed by China, while the European Union has been preoccupied with the refugee crisis. In this context, Turkiye has played a central role in facilitating [Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham(HTS)] HTS’s growth in Syria, and its actions appear to have been tacitly supported by Western governments. Despite these developments, Syria’s future remains uncertain … [and] is likely to remain a key issue on the global agenda for counterterrorism in 2025.
One of the significant outcomes of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks on Israel has been the heightened visibility of the Iranian regime’s involvement in supporting and directing militia groups across the Middle East. These groups, which include the Houthis in Yemen, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) and Saraya Awliya al-Dam in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and various Shia militia factions in Syria, have actively targeted both Israeli and U.S. military assets and interests in the region. Operating under the strategic direction of Tehran … it is highly likely that these groups will persist in 2025 in posing a significant security threat to American forces and interests in the Middle East.
For the full forecast, click here.
Mahmut Cengiz, PhD
Research Associate Professor,
Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC)
Editorial Board Member, Homeland Security Today
Terrorism with a Small Footprint, Individual Actor Methodology
2025 will usher in many new, unknown and surprising-source threats. In today’s world of coordinated response, many threat actors have adapted and now the individual threat actor should be on everyone’s radar. Different from “lone wolf” attacks, individual threat actors may be part of larger organizations or movements but acting out in an asymmetric warfare methodology in order to make it harder to prevent. Such threats may attack “soft targets” that may not have been threatened previously.
The most-likely-to-occur threats, and hence, possibly most pressing at an all-homeland level, are likely to come from four main threat categories: insider threat; homegrown violent extremism (HVE)/domestic violent extremism (DVE), adversarial nation threats; and terrorist threat actors. Attacks could come in the form of cyber, arson, bio-related, or simple brute-force attacks, such as vehicle ramming, improvised explosive device (IED) or improvised incendiary device (IID), or knife- and gun-involved incidents. Insider attacks could materialize in ways not commonly associated with such threats, such as being an unknowing participant by way of vendor access; by unintentional access granted through actions such as clicking on “bad” links in cyber cases; or via vulnerable data-related points. Bio-related attacks could be from simple unintentional import through agricultural product, to an intentional bio attack through viral variants or agricultural pest import.
Lastly, due to the challenge of rooting out small group or individual plots, the critical requirement for all in homeland security will be to collaborate and share as much and as relevantly targeted data as possible. Successful navigation of this threat period will require an all-hands-on-deck approach from top to bottom. With layers of clearance and access to consider, such collaboration will require a more robust, concerted effort to create products and materials that are sharable at multiple levels. A broad array of such products can then be delivered at requisite levels, and also, through partner participation, sorted and shared with relevant parties, possibly even beyond ordinary distro-environments.
Major Frank Hooton
Commanding Officer, Texas Border Joint Operations Centers
2024 State Homeland Security Person of the Year, GTSC’s Homeland Security Today National Homeland Security Awards
(The author is responsible for the content of this article. The views expressed do not reflect the official policy or position of the Texas Military Department, or the Texas Department of Public Safety/Texas Rangers.)
Impact of Global Bad Actors Heighten Terrorist Threats in the United States
Over the past 12 months, we have seen significant changes to the landscape of threat actors across the Middle East with compounding impacts on U.S. domestic and international security. The Israel-Iran proxy war has continued with devastating results across the region and regional shifts in power dynamics. While there have been significant military setbacks for Iran and its proxies, the genesis of the conflict, in part, to scuttle regional peace opportunities and sow discontent towards Western and allied partners has largely been effective. Foreign maligned influence campaigns have inflamed the crises, bolstering the actions of regional proxies to perpetuate attacks and resistance to a ceasefire. Tragically, tens of thousands have died as a result, and the hostage crisis has continued painfully for more than a year. A strategic by-product of this unprecedented tragedy being a significant increase in animosity, hostility, radicalization, and potential for terrorism in the United States.
Against this backdrop, increased collaboration between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea against Western allies has achieved unprecedented results. Collectively, these actors have conducted cyberattacks on critical infrastructure and theft of sensitive government information, perpetuated regional conflicts, and collaborated with international criminal networks through grey zone operations to weaken Western powers.
While these actions may have been independent in nature, the overlap of these efforts have resulted in an environment that both directly and indirectly promotes terrorism (figure 1). For instance, foreign maligned influence campaigns aimed at sowing discontent enable radicalization of vulnerable populations. These populations are targeted in the digital ecosystem for recruitment by terrorist organizations (e.g., the recent attack in New Orleans). …
To effectively address this shift, the U.S. government must continue to work with allies and private sector institutions to identify and shut down foreign maligned influence capabilities, terrorist network entry points (both physically and digitally), and illicit financing mechanisms that support the maligned ecosystem. This, combined with other diplomatic and defense measures, will help mitigate the dynamic terrorism threat environment of today.
For the full forecast, click here.
Moshe Nelson
Former Legislative Fellow, U.S. House Subcommittee for the Middle East
Partner, Defense and Security Practice, Guidehouse
Revisiting Our Approach to Terrorism Prevention
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Explain the terrorist “profile”
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Focus on non-traditional partners
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Invest in hardening soft targets
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Cultivate relationships with emerging private sector vendors
Kristyn Shapiro
Former Senior Executive Service (SES) Member, Counterterrorism Division, FBI
Associate Director, Defense and Security Practice, Guidehouse
Domestic Violent Extremists and Terrorism
There are numerous security challenges upcoming in 2025. Terrorist and domestic violent extremism offenses are likely to continue to be primarily carried out by so-called “lone wolves.” These are individuals acting alone without direction from a terrorist or violent extremist group.
We also can expect an uptick in violent extremist propaganda in 2025 as we now see some violent extremist rhetoric and ideas having mainstreamed into politics. Facebook, for one, has removed its fact checkers, making it even easier for vulnerable individuals to fall down the terrorist and violent-extremist rabbit hole to emerge as lone, violent actors.
Many thought the Islamic State of Iraq and Syra (ISIS) was defeated but the truth is they have a similar number of fighters still active in Syria and Iraq as they originally did, and they may become stronger if chaos reigns in Syria. Moreover, if Turkey wins the debate about trying to force the Syrian Democratic Forces to disarm and let Damascus or Arab forces take over the ISIS prisons and camps, there may be escapes, abuse of prisoners or an opportunity for ISIS cadres to storm in. …
The war in Gaza with the U.S.’s continued support of Israel’s bombardments, which Amnesty International has recently labeled as genocidal, will continue to fuel militant jihadist recruitment among U.S. Muslim populations as well as globally. Jewish institutions and Jewish people themselves will be the likely targets. Likewise, violent extremist protests on universities have already resulted in various violent attacks as well as hate crimes being carried out by anti-war protestors and in response to them. …
Moreover, the pardons and commuting of sentences for those involved in the January 6th riots is likely to breathe new life back into groups like the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys, both of whose leaders were convicted of seditious conspiracy … Clearly now the message is those who engaged in violence, even violence against the police, are going free.
At the International Center for the Study of Violent Extremism (ICSVE), we agree with the 2025 Department of Homeland Security report stating that “the terrorism threat environment in the United States over the next year will remain high due to a confluence of factors. These factors include violent extremist responses to domestic sociopolitical developments and the 2024 election cycle, the enduring intent of FTOs [foreign terrorist organizations] to conduct or inspire attacks in the Homeland, and the galvanizing effect that successful terrorist attacks abroad and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East have had on a range of violent actors.”
For the full forecast, click here.
Anne Speckhard
Director, International Center for the Study of Violent Extremism (ICSVE)
Adjunct Associate Professor of Psychiatry, Georgetown University School of Medicine
Weaponizing People: Terrorist Group Inciting Lone-Wolf Threats
The year 2024 revealed that, while the global terrorism landscape in the United States has evolved since 9/11, the religious roots, deep-seated motivations, and radical ideology of Salafi Jihadism have dangerously adapted to artificial intelligence (AI)-driven online platforms, inciting its followers in the West to carry out lone-wolf attacks on critical infrastructures and crowds of civilians. The deadly vehicular attack by Shamsud-Din Jabbar during New Year’s celebrations in New Orleans not only represents a grim milestone in the resurgence of ISIS ideology, but also underscores the urgent need for U.S. counterterrorism authorities to devise innovative strategies for the early detection and prevention of such IS-inspired massacres.
It is highly probable that in 2025 the threat posed by domestic violent extremists (DVEs) and homegrown violent extremists (HVEs), radicalized within the U.S. and inspired by foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs), will remain significant and continue to jeopardize U.S. national security. Consequently, the fight against global Sunni terrorist groups, such as ISIS, its Khorasan branch (ISKP or ISIS-K), and al-Qaeda will undoubtedly remain a top priority on the U.S. security agenda …
The expectation for 2025 is that the U.S., leveraging its position as a global leader in digital AI innovation and advanced technological development, has to spearhead the creation of sophisticated online mechanisms to disrupt ISIS’s highly adaptive radicalization and recruitment strategies. Consequently, preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE) will remain a cornerstone in addressing the rise of a new generation of lone wolves and ISIS sympathizers intent on executing deadly attacks in the West and elsewhere, well into 2025 and beyond.
As long as ISIS and Al Qaeda continue to operate online, we can expect more destructive lone-wolf attacks in both the near and distant future. … Fighting an ideology rooted in faith and belief is far more complex and challenging than the physical elimination of a terrorist organization. In 2025, the struggle for the hearts and minds of susceptible individuals is likely to escalate, requiring innovative and relentless efforts to counter extremist narratives.
For the full forecast, click here.
Uran Botobekov, PhD
Salafi Jihadism Expert
The Islamist Terrorism Threat in 2025
The deadly conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine are still not over; the realities and worrying trends in post-Assad Syria continue to unfold; and the new Trump administration’s strategic focus is on confronting China and annexing Greenland. With all of this, it could be easy to overlook the fact that the greatest threat to the U.S. homeland emanates from the Afghanistan-Pakistan region.
The Taliban’s rule seems to have been more or less accepted by the international community as “legitimate,” since those who are fighting against the regime have received no support except from Tajikistan, which, despite being a neighbor, has not recognized the Taliban’s government and continues to provide refuge to Afghanistan’s National Resistance Front (NRF) members. Evidently, the audacity demonstrated by Tajikistan is greater than that of any other country to date – no opposition by other states amounts to tacit support.
The Afghanistan-Pakistan region remains a boiling and brimming cauldron of Islamist terrorism whose situation has already been predicted to cause serious damage in the Western world in 2025. Homeland security professionals need to recalibrate their priorities, understanding the geopolitical realities of South Asia and the genesis of the Taliban under whom Afghanistan not only represents a security threat but also remains a gateway to global drug trafficking. For this purpose, taking stock of the roles played by Afghanistan’s neighbors is vital, as the mistakes committed during the Global War on Terror must not be repeated.
Naveen Khan
Nonresident Research Fellow, Michael J. Morell Center for Intelligence and Security Studies, University of Akron, Ohio
Violent Extremism
A confluence of multiple factors has created an atmosphere conducive to domestic violent extremism (DVE) and domestic terrorist attacks in the United States. Contributing factors such as hotly contested and razor-thin political elections; the war in Ukraine; the Israel-Hamas conflict; the proliferation of conspiracy theories and misinformation; and growing misogyny, anti-LGBTQ+ sentiment, and antisemitism, among other deeply polarizing social and political issues will spur violent extremism in America in 2025 and ensuing years. These contributing factors also have manifested in increased threats to lawmakers and election officials (including volunteers); a rising number of extremist politicians and candidates; publicly elected extremist supporters; the spread of disinformation; and heated, dehumanizing rhetoric that allows both far-right and far-left extremism to thrive.
Of the two domestic political extremes, the primary threat to democratic governance remains the radical elements of the far right (i.e., white supremacists, militia extremists, violent sovereign citizens). This is due to the steady infiltration of far-right beliefs – including explicit and coded antisemitism, racism, religious nationalism, and xenophobia/nativism – and actors into mainstream, right-wing political discourse and political machinery. Far-left actors pose a growing, yet smaller, nontrivial threat to liberal democratic norms and governance. Compared with their far-right counterparts, they have had far less influence on policy and lawmaking. Their involvement in non-state violence also is quantitatively and qualitatively not commensurate with their far-right counterparts
Anti-law enforcement sentiment also has flourished, adding further concern about the destabilization of society through attacks on the rule of law and order. This, in turn, increases the risk of political violence and domestic terrorism. Unfortunately, when such an environment flourishes, it leads to a divided society where some individuals are not afraid to confront authority, legal processes, and societal norms with violence through mass casualty attacks, targeting minorities, authority figures, faiths, women, and others.
A repeat of the January 6, 2021 events at the U.S. Capitol in future years cannot be ruled out, although the probability of a similar attack occurring is highest against a state capital or other type of federal building. Other violent scenarios could include assassinations of political figures, mass shootings, arson attacks, bombings, as well as other violent acts targeting faith-based communities, LGBTQ+, government meetings and facilities, law enforcement, the courts, among other targets of opportunity. For these reasons, government officials, policymakers, and law enforcement should remain vigilant, prepared, and conscientious of this ever-evolving and dangerous internal threat; it should not be underestimated, easily dismissed, or forgotten. This year and several years beyond will be fertile ground for DVEs to flourish, and the U.S. should continue to operate according to this heightened threat environment.
Daryl Johnson
Founder, DT Analytics
Non-Resident Fellow, New Lines Institute
Alejandro J. Beutel
Non-Resident Fellow, New Lines Institute, and independent research scholar
Former research affiliate, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START)
Lone-Offender Terrorism
One of the most formidable challenges facing homeland security professionals in 2025 will be the ongoing threat of lone-offender terrorism. There is a long history of lone-offender attacks in the United States, beginning with the 1920 Wall Street bombing, when a horse-drawn wagon exploded on Wall Street, killing 38 people and wounding hundreds of others, and continuing with the most recent attacks in New Orleans and Las Vegas on New Year’s Day.
What makes lone offenders so difficult to deal with is the confounding fact that they work alone, making tracking challenging. There are no communications between members of a group to discover and interrupt planning. However, in the age of the internet, many lone offenders post their intentions on social media. Unfortunately, there is usually not enough time between their postings and the actual incident for law enforcement personnel to take action. Furthermore, there is no single profile of the lone-offender terrorist. It is, therefore, hard to anticipate who may perpetrate an attack.
Homeland security professionals also must concern themselves with lone offenders whose attacks do not fit the classic definition of terrorism, namely an act of violence intended to coerce or influence the government or the public in furtherance of political or religious goals. Attacks by individuals with only personal grievances or even by those who apparently have no motive at all still pose a threat to the homeland, such as Stephen Paddock, who killed 58 people at an outdoor concert in Las Vegas in 2017 in the worst mass shooting in U.S. history. These incidents can cause concern and anxiety in the country and undermine public confidence in the government’s ability to protect them.
Finally, it is important to remember that lone offenders can be very creative. Because they are not part of a group, they are not subject to collective or coordinated decision-making that can stymie ingenuity. This allows the freedom to plot and act on any scenario they want since they are accountable only to themselves. Some of the more innovative lone-offender incidents in the past have included the planting of two bombs at a location, the second intended to injure first responders (Eric Rudolph in 1997), and the sending of anthrax-laced letters through the postal system to several targets (Bruce Ivins in 2001). We can expect lone offenders to continue to look for more innovative ways to perpetrate their attacks in coming years.
Jeffrey D. Simon, PhD
President, Political Risk Assessment Company
Author, The Bulldog Detective: William J. Flynn and America’s First War Against the Mafia, Spies, and Terrorists, and America’s Forgotten Terrorists: The Rise and Fall of the Galleanists