We at Homeland Security Today have once again reached out to our Editorial Board, columnists, and community of subject-matter experts to ask for their assessment of the threats facing the nation in 2025. As our readers know, our experts come from a unique cadre with practical experience who have devoted their careers to defending and protecting America. In this three-part series, we share their assessments of the risks and vulnerabilities that should be at the forefront of our community.
“As much as some things change, some things remain the same.”
These forecasts converge on broad themes that are no surprise to the homeland security community – terrorism, unmanned aircraft systems, cyber risks, threats from China, insider threats – and they also present broader topics, such as the national debt and our healthcare infrastructure, as areas of vulnerability that require immediate attention and focus. The homeland security community is faced with potential risks from numerous political, social, domestic and international threats and must adapt to the evolving technological landscape like artificial intelligence and quantum computing, while maintaining vigilance toward the ongoing threat from the Taliban, Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), China, and Russia.
What follows has been categorized into three sections, those forecasts dealing with >>Terrorism (lone actors, ISIS, DVE),
>>Cyber & Advanced Technology (cybersecurity, UAS), and
>>Multidimensional Threats (political polarization, biotechnology, supply chains).
The Multidimensional Threats
Array of Threats: Drugs, HVEs, Border Security
It is challenging to predict the threats for 2025 in this volatile world. The recent focus among Americans seems near term: specifically, the actions taken in the initial phase of President Trump’s term. However, we must not lose sight of the expected continued high-threat environment in 2025 in several areas, irrespective of executive action.
The threat from illegal drugs, most notably fentanyl, will continue. This threat is of utmost concern for several reasons. First, its lethality. Second, its links to transnational criminal organizations, including designated terrorist organizations. The revenue from drug sales fuels other illicit activity posing additional threats to communities in the United States. Third, the impact on our economy and health system.
Homegrown violent extremism (HVE) is a term that has grown out of favor, but its threat continues under any name. Disenfranchised persons within our country’s borders pose a threat to public safety and security. This includes both U.S. citizens and noncitizens. For both, assimilation into community and culture is key to avoiding violent acts. As politics continues to be divisive, angry, and emotional, this threat grows. And this is a threat that must be deterred, as detection in time to prevent an attack is challenging. “Traditional criminals” generally follow a path toward more violent acts and often are on the radar of local law enforcement. HVE acts are more generally “out of the blue” with no official predictive intelligence. Federal, state, local, and tribal law enforcement partnerships, as well as the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s threat prevention work with domestic soft targets and crowded places, has never been more critical.
A third threat is related to immigration and the border. Border security and interior enforcement present the most dramatic policy swing resulting from this presidential transition. The threat is that we treat border security as an isolated policy and do not plan for and manage the peripheral issues. The marked swing, without a systemic look at outcomes, could induce an increase in violence from those opposing aggressive enforcement. And less discussed, yet vitally important, are the effects of the policy turnabout on necessary societal and community structures such as schools, health care, and local labor. It is important that we account for the ecosystem of results, and are prepared to effectively manage the complexity and interrelationships of those tangential effects to avoid downstream impacts that could threaten our nation. It is critically important to avoid unexpected consequences.
Elaine Duke
Elaine Duke & Associates, LLC
Former Acting Secretary and Deputy Secretary, Department of Homeland Security
2024 Homeland Security Lifetime Achievement Award, GTSC’s Homeland Security Today National Homeland Security Awards
Editorial Board Member, Homeland Security Today
Emergency Management
Over the past decade, we have seen disasters in the United States continue to increase in both frequency and magnitude. In 2024, state and local governments managed 27 disasters with losses exceeding $1 billion, with total economic damages from disasters amounting to approximately $217.8 billion nationwide. This represents an 85.3 percent increase from 2023 and is the highest annual total since 2017, when I served as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator. Accordingly, I fully believe the biggest challenge, or threat, professional emergency management faces in 2025 is mission creep and, therefore, the lack of ability to provide streamlined support to state and local governments after a disaster. I am committed to championing significant reforms that will modernize disaster relief and recovery to make it more effective and resilient.
Expedited federal assistance after a disaster remains a significant challenge, with over 90 recovery programs spread across more than 30 federal agencies. To ensure timely and targeted support, disaster grant funding must be streamlined to align with the specific challenges disasters bring. The “locally executed, state-managed, federally supported” model is a proven cornerstone of effective disaster response and recovery. Strengthening this approach requires enhancing the federal government’s ability to provide flexible funding, empowering states, and governors, with greater control over resources and recovery efforts to meet the unique needs of their communities.
Additionally, to help drive progress in hazard readiness and resilience, I believe the federal government should adjust their current cost-share policies: providing greater support to states and communities that take proactive steps to reduce risk, such as adopting modern building codes, insuring public infrastructure, and implementing hazard mitigation strategies. By incentivizing responsible actions, we can build stronger, more resilient communities and significantly reduce the long-term impacts of disasters.
Finally, with over a dozen bills introduced in the last Congress focused on FEMA reform, there is a clear recognition of the need for improvement. Moving forward, collaboration between federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial leaders will be essential in advancing practical reforms that enhance and streamline the disaster response and recovery framework, ensuring all levels of government are well-equipped to prepare for and recover from disasters more efficiently and effectively.
Brock Long
Executive Chair, Hagerty Consulting
Former FEMA Administrator
Variety of Threats Call for Coordination and Investment
When asked to provide my assessment of the greatest threats to our homeland in 2025, my thought process led me down some fairly traditional paths; however, as is fairly common, truth is stranger than fiction. As illustrated in the first weeks of the New Year with a radicalized American citizen weaponizing a vehicle in New Orleans, and the perplexing actions of a decorated Army soldier blowing up a Tesla Cybertruck in front of the Trump International Hotel to deliver a “wake-up call.”
So, as I look at the threats, my “Kentucky windage” assessment follows:
- Domestic extremism and political polarization remain near the top of my list. Homegrown violent extremists motivated by both far-right and far-left extremist groups, as well as lone actors, may engage in violence motivated by political, racial, or ideological beliefs. I also include in this category the influence of misinformation and disinformation by foreign and domestic actors to exploit social media to spread false narratives, exacerbate divisions, and undermine trust in federal/state/local institutions.
- While perhaps migrating into more of a national defense category, cybersecurity threats continue to weigh on resources in both the public and private sectors in the United States. Nation-state actors such as China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran are actively engaging in cyber operations to steal sensitive data, disrupt critical infrastructure, and undermine public confidence. Reports in the last year of cyber actors “living off the land” while embedded in critical infrastructure, such as power and water systems, could challenge the response capabilities of the largely commercial entities operating such infrastructure. And the role of the government (at all levels) in response to such actions remains tenuously defined. Ransomware and cybercrime against businesses, hospitals, and local governments continue to pose risks to economic stability and public safety.
- Natural disasters and extreme weather events, as seen in 2024 with Hurricane Helene and with the ongoing wildfire battle in Southern California, stretch the resources of first responders, and generate long-term demand signals on resources to care for entire communities displaced by such events. The impacts on critical infrastructure – such as impacts to energy grids, water supplies, and transportation systems – further exacerbate the impacts and contribute to erosion of trust in government at all levels to respond.
- Geopolitical threats and terrorism remain a concern for the homeland, though more likely through lone-actor attacks. That said, the “border security” challenge contributes to the homeland threat through illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and the potential exploitation of border vulnerabilities by malicious actors. Also in this category, I would include the threat of another pandemic like COVID-19, or biological threat, given the continuing vulnerabilities in the public health system that could be exploited by natural outbreaks or through overt action by a malign actor.
The mitigations for each of these areas of concern remain a concerted and coordinated effort across government, private sector, and international partners, as well as well-considered investments in critical infrastructure resilience and technology.
Kenneth W. Bible, P.E.
Director, Crytica Security, Inc.
former Chief Information Security Officer, U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Biological Threat Outlook
Five years after the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, and 10 years after the release of the first National Blueprint for Biodefense, the United States remains at catastrophic biological risk. Foreign adversaries continue to increase their interest in, and active development of, biological weapons. The Department of State assesses that China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia continue to engage in biological weapons-specific or dual-use research activities, and fail to comply with the Biological Weapons Convention. Meanwhile, the potential for accidental releases of Select Agents and other biological material from laboratory settings remains a concern. We also face an increasing threat from the convergence of artificial intelligence and the life sciences.
The increasing frequency and mutation of emerging infectious diseases leave us in the dark about the capabilities of new threats, and enhance the danger that known viruses (e.g., mpox, H5N1) pose to the nation. Some naturally occurring diseases also devastate food and agriculture products and supplies, harming millions of people and weakening the U.S. economy. Government and public health officials regularly grapple with multiple large-scale disease outbreaks simultaneously, stretching available resources thin. Capabilities and expertise developed in response to past biological events have begun to atrophy, and the current fiscal environment does not allow for additional funding to fill in the gaps.
In light of these persisting threats, the emphasis on indoor air quality and personal protective equipment (PPE) has never been more critical. High-efficiency air filtration systems and proper ventilation in buildings can significantly reduce the spread of airborne pathogens, protecting both public and occupational health. Furthermore, PPE (such as masks and respirators) contributes greatly to frontline defense against the transmission of infectious diseases and as such, is a necessary component of the Strategic National Stockpile. However, governmental efforts to enhance these crucial capabilities are lacking and eroding. Beyond our terrestrial concerns, astrobiodefense emerges as a new frontier, preparing us for the potential biological risks associated with increased space exploration and the possibility of extraterrestrial contaminants.
The incoming Administration should leverage lessons learned from at least those biological events with which the previous Trump Administration had to contend. They also must look to the National Biodefense Strategy and Implementation Plan (the first of which they developed and released in 2018) to respond to current biological threats to the nation, and prepare for future biological attacks, naturally occurring diseases, and accidental releases. Nothing will increase government inefficiency and costs faster than a devastating, wide-spread biological event. Considering at least one has started and continues to spread here in the United States, they have no time to waste.
Asha M. George, DrPH
Executive Director, Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense
Robert Bradley
Policy Principal, Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense
John “J.T.” O’Brien
Research Principal, Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense
Insider Threat and the Vulnerability of Infrastructure
One of the greatest security threats to the homeland is from insiders. This threat is one of the most difficult because it manifests from within an organization despite the typical presence of a vetting process, whether it is a government or commercial organization. Insider threats take various forms, which range from information collection to theft to actual acts of subversion and sabotage or terrorism. …
Our capability to counter insider threats has become much more difficult with the significant increases in illegal immigrants integrating into our system. It has become a problem of sheer numbers versus our capacity to identify and verify the identity of these persons within a government or commercial organization. Aggressive insider threat mitigation and procedures are needed… This will require the use of techniques and protocols such as continual vetting of personnel using open-source data tied to biometric identification; employment of unpredictable security measures and deterrence operations; enhanced monitoring of internal and external communications; and compliance and introduction of cyber security monitoring measures.
Countering insider threats will become a significant issue for Department of Homeland Security personnel during 2025. Organizations will need to embrace “Security as a Culture” and enhance their internal security systems. The need to provide enhanced insider threat protocols will become essential. Without adequate insider threat mitigation, organizations will see increases in theft, technology transfer compromise, criminal activity, disruption of supply chains and worse, to include possible acts of terrorism.
For the full forecast, click here.
John Halinski
CEO, SRI Group, LLC
Editorial Board Member, Homeland Security Today
Former Deputy Administrator/Deputy Assistant Secretary, Transportation Security Administration
Illegal, Unregulated, Unreported Fishing
Each year, our Nation faces new threats. But the old threats don’t go away; they build on each other like the layers of an active termite mound. Although not new, a growing global threat that adds another layer to the mound is illegal, unregulated, unreported (IUU) fishing. Let’s explore what this phenomenon is and why it’s a threat to America and the world.
The most difficult resource for a nation to protect is its fish stocks. Small nations like those in Oceania and Micronesia don’t have coast guards or navies capable of enforcing their 200-mile exclusive economic zones (EEZs). Likewise, many nations in Latin America, South America, and Africa are unable to patrol their EEZs. The problem is that some large, capable nations make routine incursions into the waters of other sovereign nations, illegally extracting vast quantities of fish stocks. It is reported that IUU fishing has replaced piracy as the leading global maritime security threat.
It is oft said that over the years, the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have gone from cooperation to competition to potential conflict … if the PRC decides to invade Taiwan. But there’s more: the PRC is the source of another threat; it’s the largest perpetrator of IUU fishing. It consumes and produces more seafood products than any other nation and has the largest fishing fleet, estimated at 5,000 vessels. Many PRC fishing vessels are part of the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia, which the PRC uses to conduct activities intended to intimidate/harass U.S. partner nations, and test U.S. commitment to preserving a free and open maritime domain. These vessels act with impunity, extracting endangered species, tampering with equipment, and falsifying records. PRC IUU fishing undermines the rule of law and diminishes sovereign nations while benefiting the PRC’s economy and bolstering its regional power.
The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) is a key force to counter global IUU fishing. The USCG has ships ranging from 418-foot national security cutters to 154-foot fast response cutters stationed in San Francisco, Hawaii, and Guam that routinely patrol the Central and Western Pacific, enforcing applicable laws. The USCG has expanded its effectiveness by coordinating with partner nations to put in place powerful bilateral agreements that allow the Service to enforce laws on these nations’ behalf. It’s cooperation like this, and dedicated enforcement that will help mitigate the rising threat imposed by IUU fishing.
(Note: This piece was inspired by and some content derived from, “Indo-Pacific Illegal, Unregulated, Unreported Fishing – Challenges and Strategy Solutions,” written on December 18th, 2024, by LT Hunter Stowes, USCG)
Sandra Stosz
Vice Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard (retired)
Editorial Board Member, Homeland Security Today
Supply Chain Security
2025 is already off to a difficult start from a homeland security perspective. The terror attacks in New Orleans in the year’s opening hours were followed by wildfires of historic proportion and continuous evidence of successful Chinese cyberattacks on U.S. critical assets. The new Trump administration assumed office in a period of unprecedented risk to the homeland and indicated they were going to take dramatic actions to address them, but, at this point, those activities are as much about tearing down institutions as they are about establishing new approaches. This leaves dramatic uncertainty in the homeland security enterprise.
It’s not just uncertainty of roles, responsibilities, and priorities that are going to be a challenge in 2025. The threat environment will be amplified given events around the world. One area that I am focused on is the elevation of the supply chain as an instrument of conflict. In 2024, we saw the Israeli intelligence weaponize supply chains to successfully undermine Hezbollah (a positive outcome), while also seeing adversarial actors use supply chain vulnerabilities as perhaps the dominant mode of cyberattacks – particularly focused on information and communications technology supplies. Securing supply chains against physical and cyberattacks have become an important part of protecting critical infrastructure.
But direct supply chain attacks aren’t the only concern. The potential cutting off of critical supplies as part of escalating geopolitical conflicts and trade wars need to be accounted for in homeland security and defense planning as well. China has taken action to reduce the availability of critical minerals – antimony, gallium, germanium – that are used in critical infrastructure industries, such as health and energy as well as national defense. Continued conflict and conflict planning could challenge key shipping lanes in the Middle East and Europe as well as Southeast Asia. The U.S. is overly reliant on critical supplies from untrustworthy nations, and identifying and developing alternatives is critical to supply chain resilience.
For homeland security professions, this supply chain focus should be squarely on the core technologies that enable homeland security. These include detection, emergency communications, identity management, cyber security, and unmanned aerial vehicles used for surveillance and protection. Ensuring the use of trustworthy suppliers in those areas increase the likelihood of operational success and the protection of sensitive information. This is an area where the new administration’s embrace of aggressive action to protect the homeland can be leveraged effectively. Any government funding for homeland security needs to be tied to buying from trustworthy suppliers. This allows for increases in supply chain security and resilience to counter the growing threat.
Bob Kolasky
Senior Vice President for Critical Infrastructure, Exiger
Former Assistant Director, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency
Editorial Board Member, Homeland Security Today
Our Financial Market, Critical Infrastructure and Biotechnology
Synthetic media and the weaponization of market psychology
The evolution of synthetic media appears to be creating unprecedented capabilities for adversaries to target the psychological underpinnings of market confidence, with cascading implications for national security that extend far beyond immediate financial losses. While previous market manipulation schemes focused on direct profit extraction, 2025 might mark the emergence of more sophisticated campaigns designed to systematically erode trust in financial institutions and market mechanisms themselves. The threat to homeland security may lie not in short-term market volatility but in the potential long-term degradation of public faith in economic institutions that form the backbone of national stability.
Homeland security practitioners might consider reframing market manipulation as a form of cognitive infrastructure attack. Traditional market surveillance approaches, focused on price movements and trading patterns, could miss the more subtle signals of trust erosion in market systems. One potentially valuable approach would involve developing new analytical frameworks that map the interconnections between market psychology, institutional stability, and social cohesion.
Convergence of cybercrime and critical infrastructure attacks
The traditional boundaries between cybercriminal groups and state-sponsored actors appear to be increasingly blurred, potentially creating a new class of hybrid threats to critical infrastructure. … Security professionals might anticipate an evolution in attack methodologies that specifically target the growing Internet of Things (IoT) ecosystem supporting smart city initiatives. … Organizations might consider establishing cross-functional threat hunting teams that could identify and respond to attacks targeting multiple infrastructure layers simultaneously.
Emergence of biotechnology supply chain vulnerabilities
The rapid advancement of biotechnology capabilities, particularly in synthetic biology and gene editing, appears to be creating new vulnerabilities in pharmaceutical and healthcare supply chains that warrant attention from homeland security professionals. … Of particular interest is the apparent growing capability gap between biotechnology detection systems and the sophisticated methods being developed to circumvent them. Security professionals might need to prepare for scenarios where malicious actors could potentially introduce subtle alterations into pharmaceutical supply chains that prove difficult to detect with current quality control measures.
For the full forecast, click here.
Mark Bills
Managing Director of Transformativ, LLC
Chemical Security
The intersection between chemicals and homeland security cannot be overstated. The industry is essential to our economic and national security, and, as a result, the chemical sector, and its supply chain, has become an attractive target to bad actors.
While the chemical distribution industry has remained vigilant against threats, tactics and technologies are constantly evolving. … Cybercriminals also have become increasingly adept at impersonating legitimate companies to purchase chemical products, often using the newest technologies, like artificial intelligence (AI). The rapid embrace of AI further complicates this challenge and requires businesses of all sizes to exercise even more diligence to safeguard operational integrity and minimize potential security breaches. Theft through “deceptive acts” is up 700% in some areas of the U.S. … This type of theft can cause significant delays in the delivery of essential goods, disrupting the supply chain and placing communities at risk.
Amid these countless threats – both physical and cyber – there is one program that played a significant role in safeguarding chemical facilities and surrounding communities from acts of terror: the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS) program. Unfortunately, despite having nearly two decades of bipartisan support, Congress failed to reauthorize the CFATS program in 2023. Without this critical program and the lack of collaboration between chemical facilities, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and law enforcement, security gaps have persisted. … It’s long overdue for Congress to reauthorize this program for the safety of our industry and the surrounding areas.
For the full forecast, click here.
Eric R. Byer
President and CEO, Alliance for Chemical Distribution
Complex Risks Ahead for Homeland Security in 2025
As we enter 2025, homeland security professionals face an increasingly complex and evolving threat landscape. While the following are just three of many pressing challenges, they highlight the interconnected nature of risks that demand proactive and collaborative action:
- Internal Domestic Political Polarization … continues to strain national unity and weaken the ability of governments at all levels to address pressing homeland security challenges. This division hinders cooperative efforts in crafting policies, allocating resources, and responding to emergencies, while foreign adversaries exploit these fractures to amplify disinformation campaigns.
- Dependence on Foreign Adversaries for Critical Manufacturing: The United States remains heavily reliant on China, the world’s largest producer of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), for essential medicines and other critical manufacturing items. This dependency exposes the homeland to significant risks, including potential shortages, contamination scandals, and strategic vulnerabilities should geopolitical tensions escalate. Compounding these risks, the Chinese pharmaceutical industry is plagued by insufficient regulation, fraud, and safety scandals, while U.S. oversight faces logistical and enforcement challenges. … Homeland security professionals must advocate for policies that reduce reliance on adversarial nations, bolster domestic manufacturing capacity, and enhance transparency in the pharmaceutical supply chain.
- National Debt’s Impact on Security Preparedness: … This problem spans administrations from both political parties and has reached a point where the sheer scale of the debt undermines national preparedness and resilience. As debt servicing consumes an increasing portion of the federal budget, the resources available for critical security programs, infrastructure resilience, and disaster preparedness are being squeezed. This fiscal reality risks eroding the nation’s ability to effectively address both known and emergent threats.
These threats, while diverse, underscore the need for comprehensive, forward-looking strategies that engage all levels of government, private-sector partners, and the public. By addressing polarization through cooperation, reducing supply chain vulnerabilities, and planning for the financial challenges posed by the national debt, homeland security professionals can fortify the nation’s resilience against an increasingly complex array of risks.
For the full forecast, click here.
Robin Champ
Vice President, Strategic Foresight, LBL Strategies
Former Chief, Enterprise Strategy Division, U.S. Secret Service
Former Chief Strategist, Defense Threat Reduction Agency
Physical, Cyber, Information Operations – Threats
The 2025 threat landscape will be more dynamic, complex, and dangerous than ever before… At the Center for Internet Security (CIS), we call them multidimensional threats, or physical, cyber, and information operations threats operating seamlessly between the physical and digital worlds at internet speeds.
Beginning in early 2024, state and local law enforcement and election officials began to prepare to deal with a broad range of physical and cyber threats, anticipating that foreign and domestic threat actors would seek to disrupt the upcoming Presidential elections. As it turned out, they were right to be concerned. Throughout the election cycle, state and local communities across the nation experienced sustained levels of cyber and physical threat activity. … including ransomware and denial-of-service attacks … foreign threat actors developed and spread artificial intelligence (AI)-generated video and audio content in an attempt to undermine confidence in the election. … Bomb threats, some originating from overseas, have targeted vote tabulation centers and even the homes of appointees of the incoming administration.
And the violence has continued. A corporate CEO was gunned down in the streets of New York City by an individual motivated by anti-corporate ideological views. Our nation witnessed a school shooting by a 15-year-old female motivated by a blend of ideological views and personal grievances. …
There is good news. … police chiefs, sheriffs, and state and major urban-area fusion centers have stepped up to the challenge … [and] are working together to prepare and respond to the multidimensional threats they face. They are sharing critical intelligence about threats. They are engaging in multi-disciplinary and multi-agency operational planning, training, and exercises … They are establishing redundant crisis communications capabilities ensuring that communications between first responders and the public can be achieved and maintained even when the websites, social media platforms, communications centers, and telecommunications systems facilitating that communication are targeted for cyberattacks. This is the recipe for success the nation will need to keep our communities safe in the days, weeks, and months ahead.
For the full forecast, click here.
John Cohen
Executive Director, Program for Countering Hybrid Threats, Center for Internet Security
Thinking Globally, Acting Locally: Securing America Against Emerging Threats
Are today’s first responders equipped to handle large-scale attacks akin to the 2008 Mumbai siege or Israel’s October 7th tragedy?
Emerging Threats: The Evolving Landscape
One of the most pressing threats is the use of drones in terrorist operations. Armed with explosives or biological agents, drones could devastate public gatherings or critical infrastructure. To counter this, the U.S. must urgently modernize counter-drone capabilities, equipping state and local law enforcement with advanced tools to detect and neutralize such threats.
Alarmingly, many agencies rely on Chinese-manufactured drones for their public safety programs, a significant security risk. Enhancing law enforcement drone capabilities is essential for public and officer safety in 2025 and beyond. However, lawmakers must prioritize funding for secure alternatives produced by American or allied manufacturers to protect critical operations from potential vulnerabilities.
Influence Campaigns and Digital Radicalization
Foreign adversaries are increasingly leveraging influence campaigns and deception to undermine trust in U.S. institutions, including law enforcement. … Simultaneously, digital platforms provide extremists with powerful tools for propaganda, recruitment, and operational guidance, rapidly transforming online threats into real-world dangers.
Addressing these complex and interconnected challenges demands a comprehensive strategy. Key steps include:
- Enhancing Digital Countermeasures: Develop robust systems to disrupt online extremism and disinformation campaigns.
- Bolstering Physical Security: Strengthen security measures in public spaces to deter and mitigate potential attacks.
- Fostering Collaboration: Build partnerships between government agencies, private industry, and civil society to create a unified and resilient defense.
- Reinvestment in first responder training, public awareness initiatives, and modern counterterrorism strategies is critical.
Ensuring the safety of American citizens requires vigilance, innovation, and a commitment to staying ahead of emerging threats. The stakes are simply too high for complacency. America must act decisively, because our national security depends on it.
For the full forecast, click here.
Paul Goldenberg
CEO, Cardinal Point Strategies
Chief Policy Advisor, Rutgers Miller Center on Policing
Former member, DHS Advisory Council
Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Transnational Security, University of Ottawa
Vulnerabilities in our Healthcare System
Our prediction for 2025 furthers Homeland Security Today assessment areas of “Public Safety” and “Infrastructure Security;” however, instead of focusing on the impact of foreign adversaries, which is still needed, we look at … specifically, healthcare infrastructure. A healthcare system (i.e., a network of organizations, institutions, resources, and individuals that provide healthcare services to meet the health needs of a population) is a critical component of a nation’s overall resilience to crises, allowing us the capacity to not only treat the injured but also detect other threats, such as pandemics and the use of biological agents. In 2025, we believe that healthcare systems’ capability planning should be a priority of homeland security professionals. The recent New Orleans terrorist attack and the devastating California fires have demonstrated potential weaknesses in the state of healthcare and healthcare systems in the U.S., indicating that prompt attention is needed.
… [T]he 2025 California fires have immensely strained the state’s healthcare infrastructure. The fires, which started around January 7th, have caused at least 25 deaths (a number that will continue to rise), widespread destruction, and the forced evacuation of thousands of residents (Lin II, et al, 2025). Not only have hospitals closed due to proximity to the fire, but open hospitals and medical centers near the affected areas have struggled to cope with the surge in patients suffering from burns, respiratory issues, and other fire-related issues (News Centre Maine, 2025). …
The impact of these events on homeland security is profound. Weakened healthcare infrastructure will make it difficult to respond effectively to large-scale emergencies, leaving communities vulnerable to further harm. … [and] the ability to protect and secure the nation against future threats will be severely compromised. This becomes increasingly concerning during this period of polycrisis (where multiple crises overlap and intensify each other), as we face ongoing unrest, rising foreign threats, and the cascading impacts of climate change, leading to more frequent storms, prolonged droughts, and severe heatwaves (Richardson, 2024). In 2025, for the improvement of public health and public safety, we believe a revitalized interest in strengthening our healthcare systems is needed. Homeland security and emergency management professionals must be inclusive of the healthcare system in their planning.
For the full forecast and references, click here.
Richard Serino
Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Harvard University, National Preparedness Leadership Initiative
Former Deputy Administrator, Federal Emergency Management Agency
Editorial Board Member, Homeland Security Today
Michelle Pratt
Human ecologist and current intern to Richard Serino.
Graduate student, Crisis/Emergency/Disaster Management master’s program at Royal Roads University
Human Trafficking
Human trafficking, a pervasive and insidious crime, poses a profound and escalating threat to the national security of the United States. As we look forward in 2025, this illicit activity not only undermines law and order, but also impacts economic stability, threatens public health, and erodes the very fabric of social institutions. Understanding the multifaceted dimensions of human trafficking’s impact on national security is imperative for shaping effective countermeasures.
Corruption and Erosion of Governmental Legitimacy in Foreign Aid Recipient Countries Human trafficking has infiltrated and corrupted public institutions in developing countries, many of which are significant recipients of U.S. foreign aid and major producers of trafficking victims. Law enforcement, border security, and judicial systems in these countries can be compromised not only through the direct involvement of officials in trafficking activities but also via bribery and coercion. This corruption erodes public trust in government institutions, destabilizes the political landscape, and threatens the rule of law.
Impact on Border Security
Trafficking networks frequently exploit porous borders and weaknesses in immigration control systems, taking advantage of less stringent checks to move victims and conduct illegal activities. In 2025, one of the primary challenges for the U.S. will be to secure its borders effectively without compromising vital criminal investigations into transnational organized criminal groups.
Furthermore, it is vital to adopt an all-of-government approach to effectively get ahead of this complex [human trafficking] problem before it overwhelms current law enforcement capabilities, much like the challenges seen with the “war on drugs.” This approach should encompass not only law enforcement agencies but also the intelligence, public health, education, and labor sectors to address the multifaceted nature of human trafficking comprehensively. … This approach will enhance the effectiveness of our national security apparatus against this insidious threat, enabling us to effectively combat this grave threat to national security.
For the full forecast, click here.
Austin Shamlin
CEO and Founder, Traverse Project
Advisory Board member, The Center of Research Excellence to Counter Human Trafficking, University of Houston
The Converging Nature of Terrorism, Cyber and Internal Threats
Cyber & Advanced Technology
Technological threats of concern include transnational criminal organizations embracing cybercrime as a focus of operations. These cyberthreats include fraud, theft, piracy, hacking, the dissemination of spyware and malware, the use of the Dark Web to facilitate narcotics sales, as well as the growing risk of ransomware attacks. Criminal cartels and gangs increasingly use cyber means. This includes digital surveillance of law enforcement posing a counterintelligence threat, money laundering via cryptocurrency, ATM skimming, cloned credit cards, and information operations and intimidation. …
Internal Threats
The internal threat environment is complex and evolving. It contains the continuing risk of terrorism from domestic, foreign, and transnational networked sources compounded by foreign intelligence and influence operations. These terrorist potentials are joined by the risks posed by transnational organized crime, including alliances between domestic gangs and transnational cartels and mafias. The synergy between these criminal and terrorist threats can be leverages as a means of hybrid warfare by foreign state actors and global criminal networks alike. These hybrid threats include leveraging misinformation, disinformation (propaganda) and corruption as means of sowing internal division, eroding public trust, and seeking geopolitical advantage. In this context, strategic crime and corruption can become powerful tools for both hybrid and cognitive warfare. Insider threats and the links between networked actors are, therefore, a key counterintelligence concern.
… Finally, we must be prepared to deal with converging threats. None of the threat issues addressed in the areas of terrorism and cyber & advanced technology exist in a silo. … Together with the threat of war and the full spectrum of armed violence, these threats demand a whole-of-government approach that bridges the homeland security and national security domains through effective governance, sound intelligence – domestic and foreign – and adaptive response capabilities at all levels of government.
For the full forecast, click here.
Dr. John P. Sullivan
Lieutenant (Retired), Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department
Instructor, Safe Communities Institute, University of Southern California
Research Fellow, Future Security Initiative, Arizona State University
Senior Fellow, Small Wars Journal-El Centro
Contributing Editor, Homeland Security Today
Leading Complexity
As I look across our security landscape I’m struck by the sheer complexity of the environment, from the number of threat vectors to the variety of threat actors.
Nation state cyber threats to critical infrastructure. Southwest border immigration. Ukraine-Russia. Israel-Gaza. Tik Tok. Transnational criminal organizations. Reemergence of foreign terrorist organizations. Domestic terrorism and violence in our communities. Increasingly frequent, deadly natural disasters. Supply chain fragility and inter-dependency.
Each of these alone is significant – together they have the potential to overwhelm the capacity of the systems and processes we have in place as well as the capacity of leadership to manage them, and coordinate across, as they jump from issue to issue.
And then there’s the risk of any of these together creating cascading disruptions.
Over my years in government as a senior leader, I participated in a series of exercises where we modeled just such cascading failures so we could determine the limits of our contingencies. I also led interagency responses to threats as they were occurring – and led interagency processes after those events that took stock of what we learned, in order to update and improve our processes, policy, and capacity.
For the full forecast, click here.
Patricia Cogswell
Former Deputy Administrator, U.S. Transportation Security Administration
Former Assistant Director, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement
Partner, Defense & Security, Guidehouse
American Disaster Resilience Begins at the Border
For the full forecast, click here.
Matt Lyttle
Former Acting Deputy Director of Individual and Community Preparedness, FEMA
Director, National Security Segment, Guidehouse
Erosion of Trust
The greatest threat to our country isn’t what you think it is. It isn’t foreign powers, natural disasters, or the threat of war. The greatest threat is us.
According to a recent Pew Study, only 22% of Americans say they trust the government in Washington to do what is right “just about always” (2%) or “most of the time” (21%). This is nothing new—public trust in the government has been eroding for many years. When the Pew Research Center began polling on this issue in 1958, trust in the government was at a high of nearly 80%. It’s been falling ever since. The escalation of the Vietnam War in the 1960s and 70s, the Watergate scandal, and the energy crisis of the 1970s all played their part in the erosion of trust. And in recent years, the collapse of trust has continued, spurred on by the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic and contentious presidential elections. …
In our interconnected, 24-hour-a-day world, information flows like a torrent of water through our fingers. The phones we carry in our pockets provide us with endless streams of input. … we must do a better job of not believing everything we read on the internet. Many of these “true” stories can be traced back to foreign powers trying to recast a story to their benefit. The distribution of misinformation is planned and deliberate. Because it’s all accessible from the phones we constantly carry, we are never more than an arm’s length from the constant stream of information. With a single click, we can become complicit in sharing misinformation. …
In the public safety and emergency management arena, trust is paramount. We cannot accomplish our mission of helping people before, during, and after disasters without trust. When a community is impacted by a disaster, it is crucial for public safety and emergency management agencies to be welcomed into the community. Our ability to deliver critical disaster services, funding, materials, and, most of all, a sense of hope to the community, is directly correlated to the amount of trust the community has in those who show up to help. … Without trust, even the best emergency response systems falter. …
Rebuilding trust in the government isn’t a task for one agency or sector—it’s a shared responsibility. By empowering citizens to seek truth, fostering genuine communication between communities and officials, and combating misinformation head-on, we can begin to reverse the dangerous erosion of trust. In times of crisis, trust isn’t a luxury; it’s the cornerstone of survival. We must act now to ensure that when the next disaster strikes, we are ready—not just with supplies and plans, but with the confidence and cooperation of those we serve.
For the full forecast, click here.
Pete Gaynor
Vice President, Resiliency and Disaster Recovery, Hill International, Inc.
Chair, Disaster Recovery Coalition of America (DRCA)
Former Administrator, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
Former Acting Secretary, Department of Homeland Security