China’s advances in nuclear submarine development would have “profound implications for U.S. undersea security” and that of Indo-Pacific allies, according to a report released this month.
“After nearly 50 years since the first Type 091 SSN was commissioned, China is finally on the verge of producing world-class nuclear-powered submarines,” states the report by Christopher P. Carlson and Howard Wang at the China Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval War College, adding that “the propulsion, quieting, sensors, and weapons capabilities of the Type 095 SSGN could approach Russia’s Improved Akula I class SSN.”
“The Type 095 will likely be equipped with a pump jet propulsor, a freefloating horizontal raft, a hybrid propulsion system, and 12-18 vertical launch system tubes able to accommodate anti-ship and land-attack cruise missiles,” the report says. “China’s newest SSBN, the Type 096, will likewise see significant improvements over its predecessor, with the potential to compare favorably to Russia’s Dolgorukiy class SSBN in the areas of propulsion, sensors, and weapons, but more like the Improved Akula I in terms of quieting.”
China launched its nuclear submarine program in July 1958 but progress was initially slow due to Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward, a dearth of nuclear expertise, and competition for talent and resources favoring the country’s atomic weapons program. China’s first nuclear submarine wasn’t commissioned until August 1974, followed by a second in 1980. These subs “suffered from severe mechanical problems” and crews were reportedly adversely affected by high radiation levels. The first two of the Shang I class subs were commissioned into service in December 2006 and March 2007.
Since 2017, the report notes, the Defense Department has projected the construction of the Type 093B submarine, which “rolled out of the new construction facility at the Huludao shipyard and was captured in satellite imagery on the launch barge” this past January.
“When the Type 093A Version 3 submarines were laid down in 2012-2013, China’s precision manufacturing capability was only starting to emerge as a viable computer numerical control (CNC) machine producer on the world market; that is no longer the case,” the report continues. “Within the last five years, China’s CNC machine tooling has become very competitive globally and the country has developed into one of the largest producers of precision machine tools alongside Germany, Japan, and the United States. And while Chinese companies may not rank in the top-tier, their precision manufacturing know-how is significantly better than 8-10 years ago. The fact that China has been producing indigenous marine gas turbines and diesel engines since 2017 and started producing high performance aerospace turbofan engines in 2021 is proof of this maturation.”
Striking range “has increased significantly to 7,200 km,” which is “still insufficient to target the continental U.S. from China’s littoral waters.”
“If China wishes to be able to reach east coast targets, the Jin SSBNs will have to venture far out into the Pacific Ocean,” the report states. “Should the Type 094s be backfitted with the 10,000+ km range JL-3 (CSS-NX-20) SLBM as currently expected, then the PLAN can cover the entire U.S. while operating within deep bastions near the mainland China coast.”
Right now there are just clues about China’s intentions with its third-generation nuclear subs, the authors note: “Having the ability to covertly launch land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs) like the CJ-10 with a range of 1,500 km is likely high on the PLAN’s wish list.”
The People’s Liberation Army Navy “has had a rough road to travel” in its self-reliant nuclear sub program with “functional, but not very effective submarines” produced, the report says, yet China “is finally on the verge of producing world-class nuclear-powered submarines.”
“Should China successfully make the jump in capabilities from the current Victor III-like platform (Type 093A Version 3) to an Improved Akula I-like platform, the implications for the U.S. and its Indo-Pacific allies would be profound,” the report adds.
Read the full report at U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons
