COLUMN: Exploring Emerging Trends in Cybersecurity

Welcome to the inaugural edition of our foresight column. Each month we will delve into the ever-evolving landscape of emerging trends in Homeland Security and shine a spotlight on a different component of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), identifying trends and emerging signals that warrant attention.

This month, we focus on the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), whose mission is to “understand, manage, and reduce risk to our cyber and physical infrastructure” with a vision of securing and ensuring resilience for the American people.

To kick-off this series, we present five foresight finds representative of the diverse challenges and opportunities on the horizon:

1. Rapid Urbanization in Developing Countries: A significant migration of populations to urban centers in developing nations can lead to infrastructure that is hastily built and potentially not up to modern standards, particularly in cybersecurity. This rapid urbanization can strain communication networks, public transportation systems, and utility services, making them vulnerable to disruptions.  This trend prompts us to consider international cooperation to fortify digital and physical infrastructures against cyber threats, protecting U.S. interests.
2. Advancements in Geoengineering Technologies: Technologies in geoengineering, like solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal, are being explored as solutions to global environmental challenges. They might also lead to new dependencies on digital systems for monitoring and implementation, which could be vulnerable to cyber-attacks or malfunctions.  This drives the need to assess the potential cybersecurity risks associated with geoengineering technologies, including safeguarding the data integrity of environmental monitoring systems that could be targeted by cyber-attacks.  
3. Increased Space Debris: The proliferation of space debris poses risks to vital space-based assets as it can damage vital space-based assets, disrupting communications, GPS, and surveillance systems. The increasing commercialization of space and the launch of large satellite constellations exacerbate this issue, raising concerns over space traffic management and the sustainability of space activities. The implications of space debris on critical infrastructure that relies on space-based assets requires strategies to be developed that protect satellite communication systems from potential disruptions, necessitating collaboration with government and commercial entities.
4. 4. Emergence of Synthetic Biology Risks: The intersection of cybersecurity and biosecurity in synthetic biology demands a focus on safeguarding digital aspects. The reliance on digital systems for bioinformatics and genetic data analysis further exposes this field to cyber threats, potentially allowing hackers to access or manipulate sensitive genetic data.  A focus may be needed on safeguarding the digital aspects of synthetic biology, including protecting research data from cyber threats and ensuring the security of bioinformatics systems. Additionally, there might be a need for collaboration with other agencies and sectors to develop comprehensive security strategies that encompass both the digital and biological aspects of this emerging field.
5. Proliferation of Non-Traditional Energy Sources: The energy landscape is shifting towards the adoption of alternative sources like hydrogen fuel, bioenergy, and advanced nuclear technologies, which promise cleaner energy but also introduce new complexities into the energy grid. Their integration involves sophisticated control systems and interconnected networks, which can be susceptible to cyber-attacks. The diverse nature of these energy sources also poses challenges in standardization and regulatory oversight. This includes ensuring the security of control systems and networks that manage the integration of these energy sources into the national grid.  Collaboration with government bodies and industry stakeholders is crucial to establish cybersecurity standards for these non-traditional sources.

In the coming months, our column will continue to be your guide through the landscape of emerging trends in Homeland Security. Join us on this insightful journey as we navigate the complex terrain of emerging threats and opportunities across the spectrum of Homeland Security.  If you wish to reach the authors directly, please contact Robin Champ and Mark Bills.

Robin L. Champ and Mark Bills

Robin L. Champ is a visionary leader in strategic foresight and strategy management, currently serving as the Vice President, Strategic Foresight at LBL Strategies. With a distinguished career spanning key roles in both the Department of Defense and the U.S. Secret Service, Robin brings unparalleled expertise to the table. Retired as the Chief of the Enterprise Strategy Division at the United States Secret Service, Robin led the organization’s foresight and strategic planning efforts. Notably, she also co-chaired the Federal Foresight Community of Interest, showcasing her commitment to advancing foresight practices across government. Prior to her tenure at USSS, Robin served as the Chief of the Global Futures Office at the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). There, she developed a pioneering methodology encompassing stakeholder interviews, scenario-based planning, SWOT analysis, policy analysis, and crowdsourcing. This approach formed the bedrock of the Agency’s Strategic Plan, solidifying Robin’s reputation as a thought leader in the field. Robin’s influence extended even further at DTRA, where she led the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (CWMD). Through strategic studies and dialogues, she addressed critical national security and CWMD challenges, forging collaborations with esteemed institutions like the National Defense University and the U.S. Air Force Institute for National Security Studies. Her tenure at the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) saw her at the forefront of the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review, where she played a pivotal role as the DLA Lead. Notably, Robin authored the DLA Transformation Roadmap and served as the Program Manager for DLA’s Balanced Scorecard, leaving an indelible mark on the agency’s strategic trajectory. In addition to her official positions, Ms. Champ is a U.S. Army proclaimed “Mad Scientist, and also serves as an “Expert in Residence” for Toffler Associates. Robin’s illustrious career has earned her accolades, including a commendation from the Vice President of the United States, the prestigious DTRA Director’s Distinguished Civilian Service Medal, and the U.S. Secret Service Director’s Impact Award. She holds a Bachelor of Science in Journalism/Advertising from the University of Maryland, where she graduated at the pinnacle of her Advertising class. Additionally, she holds a Master of Science in National Resource Strategy from NDU’s Industrial College of the Armed Forces (ICAF) – now the Eisenhower School, and is a graduate of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Senior Executive Fellows program. A sought-after keynote speaker on foresight, Robin has graced numerous forums, including the International Association for Strategy Professionals, Federal Foresight Community of Interest, Palladium Strategy Summit, National Defense University, American Society of Microbiology, Department of Homeland Security, Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Energy National Labs, OPM’s Federal Executive Institute, and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). Mark Bills has over thirty years of experience helping companies use new and emerging technologies to improve their competitive position, grow their revenues, and improve their operating performance. He has earned this experience as a business and technology executive and a management consultant to Fortune 1000® companies in many industries. Mark also has over twenty years of experience as an Adjunct Professor teaching graduate and Executive MBA courses on product development, strategy development/execution, and innovation management. Mark earned a BS in Electrical Engineering and an MS in Computer Science from the University of Southern California. He has continued his learning by completing several Data Analytics, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Machine Learning (ML) programs.

See Full Bio