Welcome to the inaugural edition of our foresight column. Each month we will delve into the ever-evolving landscape of emerging trends in Homeland Security and shine a spotlight on a different component of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), identifying trends and emerging signals that warrant attention.
This month, we focus on the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), whose mission is to “understand, manage, and reduce risk to our cyber and physical infrastructure” with a vision of securing and ensuring resilience for the American people.
To kick-off this series, we present five foresight finds representative of the diverse challenges and opportunities on the horizon:
- Rapid Urbanization in Developing Countries: A significant migration of populations to urban centers in developing nations can lead to infrastructure that is hastily built and potentially not up to modern standards, particularly in cybersecurity. This rapid urbanization can strain communication networks, public transportation systems, and utility services, making them vulnerable to disruptions. This trend prompts us to consider international cooperation to fortify digital and physical infrastructures against cyber threats, protecting U.S. interests.
- Advancements in Geoengineering Technologies: Technologies in geoengineering, like solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal, are being explored as solutions to global environmental challenges. They might also lead to new dependencies on digital systems for monitoring and implementation, which could be vulnerable to cyber-attacks or malfunctions. This drives the need to assess the potential cybersecurity risks associated with geoengineering technologies, including safeguarding the data integrity of environmental monitoring systems that could be targeted by cyber-attacks.
- Increased Space Debris: The proliferation of space debris poses risks to vital space-based assets as it can damage vital space-based assets, disrupting communications, GPS, and surveillance systems. The increasing commercialization of space and the launch of large satellite constellations exacerbate this issue, raising concerns over space traffic management and the sustainability of space activities. The implications of space debris on critical infrastructure that relies on space-based assets requires strategies to be developed that protect satellite communication systems from potential disruptions, necessitating collaboration with government and commercial entities.
- 4. Emergence of Synthetic Biology Risks: The intersection of cybersecurity and biosecurity in synthetic biology demands a focus on safeguarding digital aspects. The reliance on digital systems for bioinformatics and genetic data analysis further exposes this field to cyber threats, potentially allowing hackers to access or manipulate sensitive genetic data. A focus may be needed on safeguarding the digital aspects of synthetic biology, including protecting research data from cyber threats and ensuring the security of bioinformatics systems. Additionally, there might be a need for collaboration with other agencies and sectors to develop comprehensive security strategies that encompass both the digital and biological aspects of this emerging field.
- Proliferation of Non-Traditional Energy Sources: The energy landscape is shifting towards the adoption of alternative sources like hydrogen fuel, bioenergy, and advanced nuclear technologies, which promise cleaner energy but also introduce new complexities into the energy grid. Their integration involves sophisticated control systems and interconnected networks, which can be susceptible to cyber-attacks. The diverse nature of these energy sources also poses challenges in standardization and regulatory oversight. This includes ensuring the security of control systems and networks that manage the integration of these energy sources into the national grid. Collaboration with government bodies and industry stakeholders is crucial to establish cybersecurity standards for these non-traditional sources.
In the coming months, our column will continue to be your guide through the landscape of emerging trends in Homeland Security. Join us on this insightful journey as we navigate the complex terrain of emerging threats and opportunities across the spectrum of Homeland Security. If you wish to reach the authors directly, please contact Robin Champ and Mark Bills.