There is a growing consensus that attacks against U.S. facilities and personnel in Iraq by Iran-backed Shiite Militia Groups (SMGs) are increasingly becoming a “new normal.” These attacks ebb and flow pursuant to several political conditions, some of which remain outside the control of the U.S. Having both quantitative and qualitative data about each attack can help parse Iranian and allied-Shiite militia intentions, contextualize their strategy, and provide an in-depth understanding for U.S. policymakers and the general public about potential buffers and drivers of escalation in Iraq.
Escalation by SMGs in Iraq is not mono-causal, but it is generalizable and therefore assessable. In the past two years, escalation against the U.S. presence in Iraq via rocket and mortar attacks has featured at least one of three drivers.
