Late last month, the U.S., U.K., and a dozen allies condemned what they described as an escalating threat from Iranian intelligence networks operating in the West. According to their joint statement, Iranian operatives have plotted kidnappings, assassinations, and harassment campaigns against government officials, journalists, dissidents, and Jewish communities in both Europe and North America.
A recent analysis notes that these developments come in the wake of U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear program in June and the so-called “12-Day War.” Tehran has threatened retaliation, including the possible activation of Hezbollah-linked sleeper cells already under FBI scrutiny inside the United States. DHS has also warned of a heightened threat environment that includes both cyber and physical attacks.
Iran’s use of proxies to carry out global operations is well documented, from the 1990s bombings in Argentina to more recent plots against former U.S. officials such as John Bolton and Mike Pompeo. Federal prosecutors have also tied Iran to attempts on former President Donald Trump.
The assessment published by The Soufan Center is that Iran is unlikely to stop targeting U.S. officials and interests until it feels it has avenged the killing of Qassem Soleimani and responded to recent U.S. military actions. While any attack on U.S. soil would risk overwhelming retaliation, Tehran’s reliance on proxies and covert operatives gives it multiple options to project power and test American resolve.
(AI was used in part to facilitate this article.)