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Friday, March 21, 2025

PERSPECTIVE: Trump’s NOAA Pick at Center of ‘Sharpie-Gate’ Scandal That Altered Hurricane Dorian Forecast

In the fall of 2019, Hurricane Dorian made landfall in the Southeast US. In a now famous event in the Oval Office, President Trump used a NOAA-prepared map to show the track of the storm, with one addition … a hand-drawn circle extending the impact of the storm to Alabama.

Now infamously known as Sharpie-Gate, the event was intended to counter the Birmingham AL National Weather Service notice that the storm would not affect Alabama. It was inaccurate and false. As a result, several allegations of Scientific Misconduct were made against NOAA leaders who issued statements backing the President and undercutting their own NWS forecasters.

In 2020, I led a National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) team that investigated the alleged scientific misconduct by NOAA personnel, “An Independent Assessment of Allegations of Scientific Misconduct filed under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Scientific Integrity Policy.” I participated in interviews with Acting NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs and others involved in the incident. Our team substantiated scientific misconduct in two instances.

One was the failure of Neil Jacobs and Julie Roberts (NOAA Deputy Chief of Staff) to consult with the NWS forecasters before issuing the statement supporting the President’s inaccurate depiction of the storm track. Two, the drafting of the statement in support of the President by Jacobs and Roberts was politically influenced by senior officials in the Department of Commerce, including Secretary Wilbur Ross.

To my knowledge, no action was ever taken by the Trump Administration regarding the team’s findings and the charts of the storm track which were provided to the White House and altered with the Sharpie markings were never located or provided to the team.

Normally, that would be the end of a very disturbing distortion of facts intended to support President Trump’s comments. However, it has now been announced that President Trump has nominated Neil Jacobs to be the NOAA Administrator in the current administration. You can read the full NAPA report here.

Adm. Thad W. Allen
Adm. Thad W. Allen
Thad W. Allen is chair of the National Space-Based Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Advisory Board at NASA and James Tyler chair at the Loy Institute for Leadership at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy. He retired from his roles as executive vice president at Booz Allen Hamilton in 2017 and commandant of the coast guard in 2010. He is a nationally recognized expert in disaster response and an advisor to government leaders on creating unity of effort and governing structures to address complex problems. Allen was the lead federal official for the responses to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and served as national incident commander for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. He also directed coast guard operations in the wake of the 9/11 attacks and the 2010 earthquake in Haiti. He serves as a fellow at the National Academy of Public Administration and a member of the board of visitors at the National Intelligence University. Allen is also an emeritus board member at the Partnership for Public Service and the Coast Guard Foundation. He recently co-chaired a study at the National Academy of Sciences’ Gulf Research Program addressing measures of community resilience in the Gulf Coast following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. A 1971 graduate of the Coast Guard Academy, Allen also holds master’s degrees from George Washington University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Sloan School. He has been awarded honorary doctorate degrees by George Washington University, George Mason University, Georgetown University, Massachusetts Maritime Academy, the National Defense University, and the National Graduate School.

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