Ukraine’s bold drone strike against multiple Russian bomber bases on June 1 of this year continues to reverberate in security circles around the globe. Russian President Vladimir Putin, quite predictably, struck back days later with his own extensive drone and missile attacks against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Whereas Russia’s attacks were again an example of blunt, uncalibrated force, Kiev’s ability to destroy numerous Russian bombers and early warning aircraft, perhaps totaling $7B in assets, serves an intelligence and operational coup that will be studied for decades to come.
Much has already been written about how Ukraine’s operation again demonstrated that the nature of warfare has changed in a way that many have not fully grasped. We talk in the U.S. about rapidly emerging technologies – drones, artificial intelligence (AI), new cyber capabilities, software-defined weapons, and commercialized space systems – and militaries worldwide, including ours, are working to adapt. Still, there’s something about Ukraine’s practical, here-and-now employment that is awe-inspiring. They’re not talking about it, nor working through complex bureaucracies and requests of information. They’re instead fighting a war of survival and showing how innovation thrives when one’s family and homeland is under a real threat.
Pundits are rightfully asking if such an attack could be carried out by an adversary against the U.S. and allied airbases or other critical infrastructure, and there are calls to move all U.S. aircraft out of their fixed bases as well as other measures of varying levels of practicability. These are not shrill warnings, as we all, without too much effort, could envision images of B-52 bombers burning at Barksdale or Minot Air Force Bases, not unlike the now-iconic pictures of destroyed Russian Bear bombers. The vertical threat space above our installations is real and requires some true thought leadership to address.
And this is where I see the real crux of the issue. Do we have an environment where innovative military, intelligence, and homeland security thinkers can go to their manager or commander and say, “Hey boss, I’ve got an idea,” and then, if the proposal is worthy, that boss is ready to get behind their subordinate to start making things happen? Put another way: I’d love to have been a fly on the wall (as would the Russians!) in the office of Ukrainian Lieutenant General Vasyl Maliuk, who was reportedly the mastermind – or at least the lead – of the drone operation. Who on his team really came up with the plan? What was that first set of conversations like? At what point did the leadership agree to put its shoulder into planning what would take a year and a half to execute?
Whatever the specifics, and hopefully history will tell us, it appears that this operation was not only a master class in employing new technologies, but also in facilitating an environment where innovation can thrive and have real strategic effects. We in the U,S. have shown our bona fides in this regard so many times in the past, whether it was the idea for the raid led by Jimmy Doolittle in 1942, with his unit flying Army Air Force B-25 bombers off the USS Hornet to strike targets in Japan, to the plan to employ Navy SEALs in a complex special forces operation to kill Usama bin Laden in 2011. We know how to do this when it really counts.
As with anything in the government, however, bureaucracy, fear of failure, careerism, and rote adherence to rules all conspire to stifle the sort of innovation we saw at Russian airbases recently. And therein lies perhaps our biggest challenge. As we always do as Americans, we’re going to catch up on new technologies like drones and hypersonics, and we’ll continue to set the pace on AI, if we can stay out of our own way.
The question for our leaders has been and will remain how we can maintain a wartime sense of urgency and risk-taking, while the nation is seemingly at peace. I say “seemingly” because some would argue that World War III has already begun, not with something like a massive air raid on Pearl Harbor, but rather in dispersed but interconnected actions around the globe. These include the Iranian-enabled Houthi attacks in the Red Sea; PRC cyber infiltrations on U.S. infrastructure as part of Beijing’s battlespace preparation for a Taiwan operation; and Moscow’s use of Iranian drones and North Korean soldiers in their attacks against Ukraine. Whatever we call it, something very dangerous is afoot right now.
I’m confident we’ll get the tech pieces right. Having the courage to move at the necessary speed is what the Ukrainians have demonstrated for us, and developing that same courage is where our challenge now lies. Beyond the stunning videos and order-of-battle losses, the drone operation has shown us what it will take to succeed, and it’s as much about the innovation environment as it is the hardware and software.
So, when a subordinate knocks on your door and says, “Hey boss, I’ve got crazy idea” about how to defeat a threat or put an adversary back on his heels, let’s all hear them out. They might just have the solution for that operation that changes everything.
Note: The views expressed herein are the author’s own, and do not necessarily reflect those of Texas A&M or its affiliates.
