Key Takeaways
- Hamas’ October 7 attacks reshaped global jihadist unity and disrupted regional diplomacy.
- ISIS remains a multi-regional threat, with ISIS-K posing increasing risks in Europe.
- Al-Qaeda’s global footprint persists through resilient affiliates like Al-Shabaab and JNIM.
- Syria remains a key area of instability and humanitarian risk, with growing extremist threats.
- The Wagner Group destabilizes African nations through hybrid warfare and strategic influence.
- AI and drones are empowering non-state actors and transforming modern warfare.
- Geopolitical vacuums are fueling the resurgence of terrorist safe havens.
- Hezbollah and Iran-backed militias remain powerful despite battlefield setbacks.
The Soufan Center convened its second annual Global Summit on Terrorism and Political Violence in New York City on September 9–10, 2025, as part of the September 10 Project. The summit brought together policymakers, security experts, academics, and practitioners to assess the shifting landscape of terrorism and political violence. A major focus this year was on Salafi-jihadist terrorism, regional instability, and the increasing role of advanced technology in extremist activities. The summit reaffirmed the international commitment to honoring the victims of the 9/11 attacks while confronting modern threats in a rapidly evolving security environment. The following are some key takeaways from the summit:
- Hamas’ October 7 attacks reshaped global jihadist unity and disrupted regional diplomacy. The October 7, 2023, terror attacks by Hamas marked a turning point in regional and global security dynamics. While the group was not eradicated, its continued survival is widely seen as a strategic victory, both symbolically and operationally. Israel’s September 9, 2025, counteroffensive in Qatar, targeting Hamas affiliates, introduced significant diplomatic tension with a Gulf state previously considered neutral. Additionally, the aftermath of these attacks has contributed to a rare moment of tactical convergence among jihadist groups such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda, whose affiliates in the Middle East and Africa have found renewed motivation in shared anti-Israel narratives. These developments have further undermined prospects for a two-state solution and increased polarization across the region.
- ISIS remains a multi-regional threat, with ISIS-K posing increasing risks in Europe. ISIS continues to be a significant global danger, especially through its regional affiliates in Africa and the Middle East. ISIS-DRC has intensified its attacks and expanded into Central Africa, while ISIS-Mozambique remains active beyond northern Cabo Delgado. ISIS-Core maintains a presence in Syria and has attempted to establish operations in Somalia. Of particular concern is ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K), which is increasingly targeting Western Europe. Since October 7, European authorities have thwarted 45 ISIS-K plots—many of which targeted churches in Austria, Spain, and Germany. ISIS-K also plays a central role in radicalization networks, both online and within diaspora communities.
- Al-Qaeda’s global footprint persists through resilient affiliates like Al-Shabaab and JNIM. Al-Qaeda remains operational and ideologically influential nearly a quarter-century after the 9/11 attacks. The U.S. has succeeded in preventing a repeat of such attacks domestically, but Al-Qaeda continues to attract support, particularly in unstable regions. The Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) enduring control in parts of Syria are viewed as victories for Al-Qaeda’s ideological narrative. Since 2021, the Taliban has established more than 24,000 religious madrasahs, which serve as channels for indoctrination. The Taliban also provides logistical support to Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Al-Qaeda leadership, including Sayf al-Adl, has encouraged migration to Afghanistan. These developments have been facilitated by strategic vacuums caused by rivalries between Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, further enabling extremist networks. Al-Qaeda’s affiliate Al-Shabaab remains highly active in Somalia and maintains a significant presence in Kenya. In some Kenyan communities, the group provides monthly salaries to impoverished individuals, increasing local dependence and expanding its influence. Al-Shabaab has also demonstrated a global reach, with investigations led jointly by Kenyan police and the FBI revealing its sophisticated use of social media to connect with global jihadist networks, including those operating in the Philippines. In the Sahel region, Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), another Al-Qaeda affiliate, has expanded its operations significantly. The group has entrenched itself in Burkina Faso, conducting attacks and establishing control in multiple provinces and towns. JNIM’s activity reflects a broader trend of Al-Qaeda’s local affiliates filling governance vacuums and leveraging interethnic tensions to entrench their influence across weak and fragmented states.
- Syria remains a key area of instability and humanitarian risk, with growing extremist threats. It continues to be a hotspot of unresolved conflict, governance failures, and humanitarian crises. The HTS-led administration struggles with basic governance, especially in managing relations with minority groups like the Alawites and Druze. HTS also maintains a tense and sometimes hostile relationship with the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which hampers stabilization efforts. ISIS still has a strong presence in eastern Syria, especially in desert areas, where it exploits ungoverned spaces for recruitment and insurgent activities. Meanwhile, thousands of suspected ISIS affiliates, including women and children, are held in overcrowded detention camps in Kurdish-controlled regions. Camps such as al-Hol and Roj are critically under-resourced and insecure. Although at least 23,000 of the detainees are Iraqi nationals, the Iraqi government has shown little interest in repatriation or rehabilitation. The international community has also failed to develop a coordinated, sustainable plan to address the legal and security risks posed by these camps. This policy deadlock has effectively turned the camps into incubators for further radicalization and future insurgency.
- The Wagner Group destabilizes African nations through hybrid warfare and strategic influence. It continues to operate as a disruptive and dangerous actor across several African regions, including Sudan, Mali, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic. The group, estimated to have over 50,000 fighters, engages in combat operations, natural resource exploitation, and political meddling. Wagner’s success stems from its hybrid approach—acting as a military force, a paramilitary contractor, and an ideological influence simultaneously. Its ability to quickly deploy, build local alliances, and provide security services to fragile governments makes it a potent tool for Russian strategic influence in Africa. Wagner’s activities worsen regional instability and weaken Western and UN-supported security efforts. Additionally, there are emerging signs of ideological alignment and sympathies with Wagner among far-right movements in Europe and North America, complicating the domestic counter-extremism efforts in Western democracies.
- AI and drones are empowering non-state actors and transforming modern warfare. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and drone technology are reshaping tactics for both state and non-state groups. Extremist organizations are leveraging AI to improve propaganda reach, create deepfakes, and develop advanced recruitment and targeting systems. Some jihadist cells are testing autonomous decision-making tools to optimize logistics and operational planning. Meanwhile, drone warfare—once primarily used by national militaries—is becoming more accessible to terrorists and militias. The conflict in Ukraine has shown the strategic importance of UAVs, with around 70 percent of Ukrainian operations in the past two years involving drones. These devices are used not only for surveillance and targeting but also for direct attacks on infrastructure and personnel. The availability of inexpensive, commercially produced drones presents an increasing threat in both conflict zones and cities, where detection and countermeasures are still inadequate.
- Geopolitical vacuums are fueling the resurgence of terrorist safe havens. Terrorist groups have become more adaptable in exploiting technological and geopolitical weaknesses. With the decline of Western military presence in the Middle East and Africa, safe havens have reappeared, intelligence gathering has weakened, and regional actors lack proper coordination. This vacuum has been filled by jihadist organizations and private military groups, creating a complex landscape where counterterrorism efforts must evolve beyond traditional methods.
- Hezbollah and Iran-backed militias remain powerful despite battlefield setbacks. Although Hezbollah and other Iran-backed groups have suffered heavy losses from U.S. and Israeli counteroffensives, they are far from defeated. These groups still possess and use advanced weapons, such as long-range missiles and drones. Their tactical flexibility and strong ties with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps enable them to continue targeting U.S. military sites and Israeli infrastructure throughout the Middle East. As regional tensions rise, these actors are expected to stay key players in asymmetric conflicts and proxy battles.
In conclusion, the 2025 Global Summit highlighted the ongoing and evolving threats from jihadist groups and state-sponsored actors in a multipolar world. Whether through technological advancements, ideological persistence, or regional unrest, these groups continue to adjust to changing global circumstances. The need for coordinated, proactive strategies—integrating intelligence, diplomacy, digital governance, and community resilience—has never been more critical.