- Mexican cartels remain highly resilient and adaptive: while the Sinaloa Cartel has fragmented due to internal conflict, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel has demonstrated strong institutional continuity despite leadership losses.
- Increased U.S. counter-narcotics pressure has disrupted traditional trafficking routes, but criminal organizations have shifted to new pathways (e.g., South America) and methods like embedding drugs in commercial trade, empowering groups such as First Command of the Capital.
- Effective responses require a holistic strategy that goes beyond targeting cartel leaders to addressing drug demand, corruption, and the broader economic and logistical systems sustaining transnational crime.
During the Mexico: Cartels as Terror/Transnational Threats panel at Homeland Security Today’s 2026 Counterterrorism Summit, Peter Reuter, Evan Ellis, and Jake Braun discussed the current trends in Latin American-based transnational criminal organizations. These include the shifts in Mexican Cartels, increased U.S. anti-narcotics efforts, and how criminal organizations have evolved in response to U.S. efforts. Despite considerable counter-narcotic successes, criminal organizations have proven to be resilient and innovative in responding to law enforcement efforts. To address these threats, the United States, along with regional allies and partners, needs to adopt a holistic approach. This includes addressing the domestic demand, criminal groups, drug production, supporting infrastructure, and corruption that form the drug trade.
The panel highlighted recent developments concerning Mexican cartels and their implications. The ongoing civil war in the Sinaloa Cartel (CDS) has fractured what was once the most powerful criminal organization in Mexico. CDS’s traditional federative structure has amplified the civil war’s impact, as no single leader or faction has been strong enough to keep the organization together following the arrest of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. Additionally, as Reuter pointed out, CDS’s corporate-like culture meant that individual factions might be inclined to work for another organization rather than keeping CDS together. While the Mayito Flaco faction has gained the upper hand in the conflict, it remains to be seen what will be left of the CDS.
In contrast, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) has proved its resilience following the death of its leader, Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, aka “El Mencho.” Juan Carlos Valencia González “El 03” has reportedly been appointed the new leader of the organization. CJNG’s ability to survive the death of its leader and founder demonstrated institutional strength, making the organization difficult to dismantle.
The Panel also highlighted the effects of increased U.S. anti-narcotic efforts in the region. Tighter border restrictions on the U.S. and Mexican sides of the border have lowered cross-border smuggling attempts. And in response to Operation Southern Spear, the Caribbean route has become unattractive to narco traffickers. This has not only led to a reduction in drug trafficking through this route, but also a drop in violence in Caribbean nations that were serving as stopover points. Additionally, criminal organizations have moved away from Fentanyl due to the unwanted attention that comes with it. The United States has also expanded cooperation with regional partners and allies, facilitating the arrest or deaths of multiple senior criminal leaders.
However, despite considerable U.S. and allied success, criminal organizations have adapted. The so-called “Southern Route,” through nations like Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay, has become increasingly popular. This has empowered new criminal organizations. Specifically, Brazil’s First Command of the Capital (PCC) has benefited from the shifting drug routes. Criminal organizations have also shifted to smuggling narcotics in normal commercial traffic in response to increased U.S. pressure.
The panel underscored that the criminal landscape in Latin America is evolving. And to address these threats, the United States and its partners must adopt a holistic approach.
The traditional dominance of the CDS has been increasingly eroded. Its failure to successfully navigate a leadership succession process, along with its lack of internal cohesion, has left the organization relatively weak and divided. This stands in contrast with their rivals, the CJNG, who have filled the void left by CDS. Smaller independent cartels have also emerged as influential players.
In addition to the shifting criminal landscape in Mexico, increased U.S. pressure has forced criminal organizations to shift their drug routes. This shift has empowered local criminal actors in countries like Brazil and Ecuador, spawning new threats that require attention.
The panel emphasized that nations must address the markets that criminals operate in, not just the criminals themselves. While arresting criminal leaders may weaken their organizations, it does not address the core problem of the narcotics trade. Smaller criminal groups often fill the void left by larger ones. Additionally, organizations like the CJNG have proven resilient enough to withstand the loss of a leader. A successful strategy requires addressing the entirety of the drug trade. This not only includes the criminal organizations that traffic drugs, but also the domestic demand that makes up their market. Additionally, authorities must take steps to reduce the corruption that enables criminal organizations to operate.
In closing, the panel highlighted the evolving state of Latin American-based transnational organized crime and what the United States needs to do to combat it. While some traditionally powerful groups like CDS are fading away, the threat posed by drug trafficking is not. Cocaine production has skyrocketed, and criminal organizations have diversified their sources of revenue. Additionally, as seen by the CJNG’s reaction to the death of El Mencho, these organizations are capable of extreme violence. And in Colombia, the National Liberation Army (ELN) continues to use drug money to fund its war against the state. Transnational crime will continue to pose a threat to the United States for the foreseeable future.
