- A published national counterterrorism strategy is seen as essential for aligning priorities, guiding resource allocation, and clearly communicating U.S. intent to allies and adversaries while reducing the risk of politicization.
- The post–October 7th threat environment has become more volatile, marked by the convergence of cyber and physical threats, increased nation-state involvement in plots, and the rise of nihilistic violent extremism.
- Despite advances in AI and cyber tools, human intelligence remains indispensable, especially as threats such as Volt Typhoon and AI-enabled disinformation increase risks to critical infrastructure and decision-making.
The panel discussion at Homeland Security Today’s 2026 Counterterrorism Summit focused on counterterrorism strategy and mega-event security. The conversation began with a high-level strategic discussion on the need for a published national counterterrorism strategy to align resources and communicate intent domestically and internationally. The panelists then detailed the current, highly volatile threat landscape, identifying the October 7th Hamas attack as an impetus for a new wave of inspired and directed attacks. They discussed the evolution of threats, including the convergence of cyber and physical terrorism, the role of nation-state actors, and nihilistic violent extremism. The conversation also covered the impact of emerging technologies such as AI, the irreplaceable value of human intelligence, the potential for the politicization of security strategies, and the specific security challenges posed by upcoming mega-events such as the FIFA World Cup and America 250. The panel was moderated by Kristen Kelly Shapiro, a former senior executive with the FBI’s Counterterrorism Division and a current director at Guidehouse. The panelists included Chris Costa, the executive director of the International Spy Museum and a former special assistant to the president for counterterrorism, who provided a strategic perspective from his time at the White House. The other panelist was Dave Scott, a managing director with Ernst & Young and the retired assistant director of counterterrorism for the FBI, who brought expertise in counterterrorism, cyber operations, and the Joint Terrorism Task Force.
The panelists made several key points throughout the discussion:
- A published national counter-terrorism strategy was critically needed to understand how the U.S. viewed current threats and how resources would be allocated to counter them.
- The threat environment had become significantly more volatile since the October 7th, 2023, Hamas attack, which served as an inspiration or catalyst for a wide range of subsequent terrorist activities.
- Human intelligence (HUMINT) remained the most critical component in counter-terrorism, as it was nearly impossible to predict attacks without it, despite advances in signals intelligence and AI.
- A major emerging threat was the convergence of cyber and terrorism, exemplified by China’s “Volt Typhoon” program, which involved prepositioning cyber assets within U.S. critical infrastructure for potential kinetic effects during a conflict.
- There was a significant concern that any new counter-terrorism strategy could be overly politicized, which could impact its legitimacy with international partners and the allocation of resources to address the most pressing threats.
- Upcoming mega-events like the FIFA World Cup and America 250 faced substantial security risks, and preparedness through tabletop exercises and after-action reviews was essential for both high-profile and smaller local events.
- To support the argument for a national strategy, Chris Costa cited his experience in the Trump administration, noting that it took until the second year to publish the 2018 strategy, highlighting both the difficulty and the importance of getting it done.
- To illustrate the current threat, Dave Scott cited several specific cases, including a plot to attack a Jewish community center in New York, a planned attack on a polling place in Oklahoma City, and an Iranian agent sent to conduct assassinations in the U.S.
- To emphasize the seriousness of the Volt Typhoon threat, Dave Scott pointed to the joint cybersecurity advisory written by the U.S. interagency and international partners, and the subsequent high-level briefings to Congress, as evidence of the government’s significant concern.
- Chris Costa used the example of a 2017 deepfake that suggested a sniper attack to illustrate how AI-driven disinformation could squander valuable counter-terrorism resources by forcing them to chase false leads.
Recurring Themes
- The necessity of a formal strategy: The importance of having a published, national counter-terrorism strategy was the opening topic and was referenced multiple times as a foundational need for effective action.
- The primacy of human intelligence: The panelists repeatedly emphasized that, despite technological advances, human sources and analysis were irreplaceable in counterterrorism work.
- The politicization of national security: The risk that a new strategy would be, or be perceived as, overly politicized was a recurring concern, with discussion of its potential impact on resources, priorities, and international cooperation.
Key Takeaways
- A national CT strategy is essential for clarity and resource allocation. Chris Costa argued that a published strategy was necessary to communicate the nation’s threat perception to the American public, international partners, and adversaries, and to guide the interagency on how to apply resources against those threats.
- The current threat landscape is volatile and interconnected. Dave Scott presented the argument that the October 7th Hamas attack was an impetus for a cascade of subsequent terror plots and attacks, from lone actors to nation-state plots, creating a highly dangerous environment.
- Human intelligence remains paramount in the age of AI. Both panelists argued that technology like AI could be a tool, but it could not replace the crucial role of human intelligence in understanding intentions and preventing attacks.
- The convergence of cyber and physical terrorism is a critical emerging threat. Dave Scott argued that state-sponsored activities, particularly China’s Volt Typhoon, represented a new frontier where cyber means could be used to create kinetic effects on U.S. critical infrastructure.
Emerging Trends
- Convergence of Cyber and Terrorism: Dave Scott identified the deliberate prepositioning of cyber weapons within critical infrastructure by nation-states (like Volt Typhoon) as a new and alarming trend where cyber-attacks could have direct kinetic, terror-like effects.
- Increased Nation-State Involvement: The panelists highlighted a trend of nation-states, such as Iran, becoming more directly involved in terrorist plots on U.S. soil, including assassination attempts.
- Rise of Nihilistic Violent Extremism: The mention of “764” pointed to a growing awareness of a nihilistic and horrific form of extremism affecting very young children, representing a newer vector of radicalization.
- Terrorist Outsourcing to Criminal Organizations: Kristen Kelly Shapiro noted that Iran had shown a willingness to partner with and contract organized crime groups, like Mexican cartels, for operations such as assassinations, indicating a trend of state sponsors leveraging criminal networks.
The panelists’ statements could significantly raise awareness among security professionals about the severity and complexity of the current threat environment. Their strong emphasis on the need for a national strategy could further intensify public pressure on the administration to produce one. Highlighting specific emerging threats, such as Volt Typhoon and the convergence of state actors with organized crime, could influence threat prioritization and resource allocation within both public- and private-sector security organizations.
