A new analysis published in the Council on Foreign Relations argues that Belarus could face an increased risk of formal annexation by Russia within the next two years as the war in Ukraine continues to reshape the security landscape in Eastern Europe.
Thomas Graham, the Council on Foreign Relations’ Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Fellow, outlines a scenario in which heightened Russian security concerns, uncertainty surrounding the future leadership of Belarus, and improving relations between Washington and Minsk could lead the Kremlin to conclude that tighter control over Belarus is necessary for its strategic interests.
According to the report, Belarus currently serves as both a close Russian partner and a buffer state between Russia and NATO members Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. While Russia already maintains significant political, economic, and military influence in Belarus through the Union State framework established in 1999, Graham argues that Moscow could seek either a gradual integration of Belarusian institutions or a more abrupt and coercive annexation under certain conditions.
The analysis identifies several factors that could increase annexation risks, including rapid progress in U.S.-Belarus relations, a potential leadership transition involving Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, political instability inside Belarus, or growing dissatisfaction within Belarusian security institutions.
Under a gradual scenario, Belarusian sovereignty could erode through deeper economic, political, and security integration with Russia, including the adoption of the Russian ruble, expanded integration of military and intelligence services, and greater Russian influence over media and education.
A more abrupt scenario could involve a rapid move by Moscow to formalize control through increased military deployments, political pressure, or the installation of a more compliant leadership. Graham argues that such a development would likely be far more destabilizing, potentially triggering internal resistance, refugee flows into neighboring NATO countries, and heightened regional tensions.
The report also examines the broader strategic implications for Europe and the United States. While Belarus would add relatively little to Russia’s overall economic or demographic strength, Graham notes that geography remains a critical factor. Annexation would extend Russia’s direct frontier with NATO, increase pressure on the strategically important Suwalki Gap connecting Poland and Lithuania, and further complicate security calculations across Eastern Europe.
For Washington, the report recommends a cautious approach focused on gradually normalizing relations with Belarus while avoiding actions that could be perceived by Moscow as an attempt to pull the country fully into the Western sphere of influence. Graham argues that the United States should simultaneously maintain dialogue with Russia, monitor warning indicators of deeper integration, and prepare contingency plans for both gradual and coercive annexation scenarios.
The analysis comes as Belarus continues to play a key role in the regional security environment shaped by Russia’s war in Ukraine, serving as a strategic platform for Russian military activities while remaining one of Moscow’s closest allies in the former Soviet space.
