Terrorism, since the 9/11 attacks on the United States, remains the most significant security threat to date. Despite new security risks, none have surpassed the severity and impact of terrorism. Today, the United States government appears to face a dilemma regarding which security threats to prioritize. These threats range from Russia’s aggressive behavior, China’s expansion to become a global superpower, and the growing danger posed by Iran-backed militia groups in the Middle East to the risks of violent attacks from right-wing extremist groups and jihadist terror groups.
Despite being a top priority on government agendas for the past few decades, it appears that no counterterrorism policies have been successful in combatting terrorist groups. Thousands of terrorist attacks and fatalities are still being recorded each year by terrorism databases. For instance, in 2023, the Global Terrorism and Trends Analysis Center (GTTAC) Records of Incidents Database (GRID) documented 7,480 terrorist attacks that led to the death of 23,119 individuals.
Counterterrorism Strategies and Casualties
Counterterrorism involves actions taken to neutralize terrorists and their organizations to prevent them from using violence to instill fear and coerce societies or governments to achieve their objectives. The strategies for combatting terrorism have three objectives: (a) to eliminate terrorists by either defeating them, deterring their actions, or meeting their demands; (b) to minimize damages to both people and property by reducing the number, severity, or types of attacks; and (c) to prevent the escalation of terrorism by limiting the growth of domestic and international support for terrorists.
The history of terrorism reveals six ways to end it: decapitation, negotiations, success, failure, crushing with force, and reorientation. Decapitation is the practice of capturing or killing a terrorist group’s leader, thereby making it less likely that the group can continue to carry out attacks. Negotiations require government officials to sit at the same table with terrorist groups and persuade the combatants to give up their weapons. Negotiations, however, are ineffective with terrorist groups that have existed for at least five or six years. Success is when terrorist groups achieve their strategic goals and disband or stop engaging in violence. Failure is the point at which terrorist groups implode, lose popular support, provoke a widespread backlash from the public, or simply burn out. Crushing terrorism with force refers to a state military response to terrorist attacks, including using force at home or abroad. Finally, reorientation occurs when terrorist groups trade their ideologies for criminal activities and evolve into criminal enterprises.
A variety of strategies are deployed to counter global terrorism. First, it is to attack and crush terrorist groups unilaterally. For example, the U.S. sent its military forces to Afghanistan and Iraq after the September 11 attacks. Second, it is the strategy of crushing terrorist groups multilaterally, which includes efforts to solicit political and military support from other countries. Third, the containment strategy aims to restrict the movements and operations of terrorist groups to confined areas. Fourth, the defense strategy has a significant impact on terrorist groups. It seeks to make terrorist groups impotent and break their ties with financial resources and recruits. Fifth, the diversion strategy diverts terrorists’ attention to another target or victim. Sixth, the delegitimating strategy involves efforts that cause citizens and potential supporters to question the groups’ motives, tactics, and credibility of their ideology. Seventh, transforming terrorist breeding grounds aims to address political and economic grievances that cause people to resort to violence.
The decapitation and crushing strategies aim to increase the capacity of military and law enforcement to respond to terrorist groups effectively. One indicator of capacity is related to the number of perpetrators killed in terror attacks. Terrorist organizations, thanks to their preparedness, training, and planning, kill more civilians, military, and law enforcement than they have suffered casualties during the terror attacks.
Perpetrators Killed in Terror Attacks
A significant number of perpetrators have been killed in terror attacks every year, as seen in Figure 1 below. It should be noted that the GRID records acts of terrorism initiated by non-state actors and excludes state-initiated violence. In another saying, the number of perpetrators in Figure 1 below is those who initiated the attack but were killed by the military or law enforcement.
Figure 1: Attacks, Overall Fatalities, and Perpetrators Killed in Terror Attacks from 2019 to 2023
According to the data presented in Figure 1, there is a correlation between the number of terror attacks and the number of perpetrators killed. As the number of terror attacks increases, the number of fatalities, including deaths of perpetrators, also rises. There has been a reduction in the number of perpetrators killed since 2020. The percentage of perpetrators in the overall fatalities was 29.4 in 2019 and 33 in 2020. In 2020, the world was primarily focused on preventing the spread of COVID-19, but this year saw a significant increase, leading to the highest number of overall fatalities and perpetrators killed ever recorded. However, in the years that followed, there was a decrease in the number of perpetrators losing their lives in terror attacks. This decrease was recorded as 18.6% in 2021, 16% in 2022, and 17.9% in 2023.
Al Qaeda Suffers More Casualties Than ISIS
Although they have lost some power, Al Qaeda and ISIS remain two dangerous terrorist groups that have caused numerous deaths worldwide. They remain active in many countries in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. ISIS operates using a franchise model and is comprised of loosely connected affiliates. The group’s core is still based in Syria. At its peak in 2014 and 2015, the organization was one of the most powerful terrorist groups in the world, with over 30,000 militants from more than 90 countries. It controlled a significant territory in Syria and Iraq, acting as a de facto state and ruling over six million people. However, ISIS faced substantial challenges from the global coalition forces and was forced to leave its territory. Many of the militants belonging to the group have joined its affiliates in the Sahel region and Afghanistan.
Today, ISIS continues to have a strong presence through its affiliates, including regional branches in Africa such as ISIS-West Africa, ISIS-Mozambique, ISIS-DRC, and ISIS-Greater Sahara. These groups are responsible for some of the deadliest terrorist attacks in their respective regions. According to Figure 2, the number of attacks by ISIS and its affiliates ranged from 946 to 1,307 between 2019 and 2023.
Figure 2: Attacks, Overall Fatalities, and Perpetrators Killed in Terror Attacks by ISIS and Its Affiliates
Based on Figure 2, ISIS carried out the most significant number of attacks in 2022, resulting in 5,554 deaths, including its 751 militants, which accounted for 13.7% of the overall fatalities. While the number of attacks and deaths increased over the years, the number of ISIS militants killed in these attacks decreased, indicating improved training and preparedness among ISIS militants. In terms of overall fatalities, 23.8% were its militants killed in ISIS attacks in 2019, but this percentage decreased to 15.4% in 2020, 11.7% in 2021, 13.7% in 2022, and 10.6% in 2023.
It is a fact that Al Qaeda has limited presence across the globe, unlike ISIS which has established itself in more than 20 countries worldwide. This clearly indicates the disparity in their reach and influence. Al Qaeda has employed safe base strategies and localized efforts to convene jihadist groups and create umbrella-type organizations. Jama’at Nusra al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in the Sahel region and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria are two such umbrella-type groups. Additionally, Al Qaeda’s branch in Yemen, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and Al Shabaab in Somalia are some of the most active Al Qaeda groups globally. Despite its relatively limited operational capacity, law enforcement in the Western world is more interested in tracking Al Qaeda than ISIS, given that Al Qaeda’s operational capacity poses a more significant threat than ISIS.
Al Qaeda affiliates conducted fewer attacks and killed fewer people than ISIS from 2019 to 2023; however, its groups suffered more casualties than ISIS. In 2019, the percentage of militants killed in terror attacks was 31.7 percent of the total fatalities, but it increased to 40.8 percent in 2020. In 2021, the number of attacks decreased along with the number of militants killed. However, in 2022 and 2023 Al Qaeda affiliates experienced higher fatality rates of 26.4 percent and 36.5 percent respectively. These increases in the number of killings of Al Qaeda militants could be explained by Western governments’ support of local governments where these groups operate.
Figure 3: Attacks, Overall Fatalities, and Perpetrators Killed in Terror Attacks by Al Qaeda Affiliates (JNIM, HTS, AQAP, and Al Shabaab)
The Deadliest Group of 2023: Hamas
The US government designated Hamas as a terrorist organization back in 1997. Despite this, Hamas has still managed to gain political representation and even get involved in elections, where they have won some victories. Over the years, Hamas has been responsible for numerous attacks, as listed in Table 1 below. In 2019, the group conducted a total of 45 attacks, which resulted in the deaths of 12 people. Five of those victims were associated with Hamas.
Interestingly, Hamas remained quiet during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, which was a year that recorded the highest number of terrorist attacks worldwide. In 2020, Hamas carried out only one attack, which claimed the life of one Hamas member. This trend continued in 2021 and 2022 until October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a series of deadly terrorist attacks. According to the GRID, Hamas carried out 359 attacks in 2023. Most of these attacks occurred on October 7 and the subsequent days of that year. As a result of these attacks, a total of 1,544 people lost their lives, out of which 182 were Hamas members. It is essential to mention that these attacks were initiated by Hamas and were responded to by the Israeli forces.
Table 1: Attacks, Overall Fatalities, and Perpetrators Killed in Terror Attacks by Hamas
| Incident | Total Fatalities | Perpetrators Killed | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 45 | 12 | 5 |
| 2020 | 25 | 1 | 1 |
| 2021 | 40 | 20 | 9 |
| 2022 | 11 | 8 | 3 |
| 2023 | 359 | 1544 | 182 |
Iran-backed Militia Groups and Casualties
Hamas’s October 7th attacks highlighted the capabilities of Iran-backed militia groups in the Middle East. Iran’s efforts to become a regional power have resulted in the establishment of these groups across Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. These militias consist of various factions, including Liwa Fatemiyyun and Liwa Zainebiyyun in Syria, Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Islamic Resistance and Kataib-i Hezbollah in Iraq. Their main tactic is to use drones and missiles to target Israeli forces and American facilities. In January 2024, they killed three US service members following an uncrewed aerial system attack at a military base near the Syrian border. Table 2 below shows the most active Iran-backed groups in the Middle East.
Table 2: Attacks, Overall Fatalities, and Perpetrators Killed in Terror Attacks by Iran-backed Groups (Hezbollah, Islamic Resistance in Iraq, and Kataib-i Hezbollah)
| Incident | Total Fatalities | Perpetrators Killed | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 11 | 43 | 31 |
| 2020 | 16 | 57 | 18 |
| 2021 | 9 | 4 | 1 |
| 2022 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 358 | 22 | 6 |
Based on Table 2, Iran-backed groups were responsible for several tens of incidents between 2019 and 2022. Like Hamas, their attacks increased significantly after the October 7th attacks. In 2019, their attacks resulted in the deaths of 43 people, with 31 of them being members of Iran-backed militia groups. From 2020 to 2022, these groups were involved in fewer attacks, with the highest number of fatalities occurring in 2020, resulting in the deaths of 57 people, 18 of whom belonged to militia groups. The three-month period following the October 7th attacks in 2023 saw the highest number of attacks involving Iran-backed groups. They were responsible for 358 attacks that resulted in the deaths of 22 people. Two key factors contribute to the lower number of casualties caused by Iran-backed militia groups. Firstly, these groups use missiles and drones and employ tactics involving minimal ground operations in their targets. Secondly, their intimidating and deterring strategies aim to drive American forces out of the region by demonstrating that Tehran-backed groups are well-established in the Middle East and can pose a significant threat to US interests.
To summarize, a field in the GRID that tracks the number of perpetrators killed in attacks is a crucial indicator of the capability of terrorist organizations. Over time, there has been a decline in the number of terrorists who have lost their lives in terror attacks. This decline is a sign of these groups’ preparedness, training, and operational capacity. Among all terrorist organizations, ISIS and its affiliates appear to be the most successful as they have the lowest number of casualties compared to other groups. It has been observed that casualty rates are higher in Al Qaeda groups because the US and other Western governments provide more resources and support to local governments where Al Qaeda affiliates operate. It is interesting to note that Iran-backed militia groups are involved in an increasing number of attacks, but they tend to kill fewer people. Hamas is a group that had operated silently for many years but became a significant threat after the October 7th attacks. Identifying and tracking perpetrators of terror attacks can be a valuable tool for reviewing counterterrorism strategies and assessing the operational capacity of terrorist groups.
