Key Takeaways:
> Illicit drugs supplied by transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) directly threaten U.S. citizens
> The U.S. continues to be a top target for terrorist organizations (e.g., Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, Al-Qa’ida)
> China is the most capable threat actor among the four major state actors – along with Russia, North Korea, and Iran – but also the most cautious.
> Collaboration and partnership between these threat actors poses a more severe risk to the U.S.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) released the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) on March 25, presenting a comprehensive overview of the most pressing threats facing the United States. The assessment, which represents the collective insights of all 18 U.S. intelligence agencies, paints a picture of an increasingly complex and dangerous global security environment, and also one with stark differences from a year prior.
Diverse Threats Target U.S. Interests
ODNI identifies a wide range of actors targeting U.S. health and safety, critical infrastructure, industries, economic prosperity, and government institutions. Both state and non-state actors are actively working to undermine American interests domestically and internationally.
Transnational Criminal Organizations and Terrorism
The assessment highlights the immediate threat posed by transnational criminal organizations (TCOs). These include the dominant producers and suppliers of illicit drugs from Mexico as well as South American countries, such as Colombia. China and India also are included in this as the primary source for fentanyl precursor chemicals and pill-pressing equipment. These lethal drugs and synthetic opioids were identified as largely responsible for the more than 52,000 U.S. deaths in the 12 months ending in October 2024. Additionally, these TCOs facilitated nearly three million illegal migrant arrivals in 2024, straining U.S. resources and communities.
Terrorism remains a significant concern, with traditional terrorist organizations (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), Al-Qa’ida, and their branches and affiliates, like ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K), Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and Al-Shabaab) maintaining the U.S. as a target. ISIS-K was singled out as particularly aggressive in seeking to attack Western targets, including the United States. AQAP has also renewed its efforts to encourage attacks against Jewish targets, the United States, and Europe through its relaunched Inspire guide.
ODNI also notes that the fall of President Bashar al-Asad’s regime in Syria, replaced by opposition forces led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has created conditions for extended instability and could contribute to a resurgence of ISIS and other Islamist terror groups.
Major State Adversaries
The assessment identifies four major state adversaries – China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran – as challenging the U.S. and its interests through both conventional and asymmetric means.
China
The standout among the four is China with their military, cyber, economic, technology, weapons of mass destruction (WMD), biosecurity, space, and subversive malign influence capabilities.
China is described as the most active and persistent cyber threat to U.S. government, private-sector, and critical infrastructure networks, with recent attacks like Volt Typhoon and Salt Typhoon highlighted as examples. The report also warns that Beijing will likely apply stronger coercive pressure against Taiwan in 2025, furthering its goal of eventual unification.
Russia
Russia’s military, cyber, WMD, malign influence activities, space, and technology capabilities pose a direct threat. The report notes that Russia “views its ongoing war in Ukraine as a proxy conflict with the West, according to the assessment. The report indicates that Russia’s objective to restore its strength and security against perceived U.S. and Western encroachment has increased the risks of unintended escalation between Russia and NATO.”
Russia also uses their cyber and influence capabilities to compromise its targets and stoke political discord in the U.S. and among its Western supporters.
North Korea
The military, cyber, and WMD capabilities of North Korea pose the greatest threats to the U.S. North Korea uses threats of nuclear retaliation to intimidate, and funds its military development by stealing hundreds of millions in cryptocurrency from the U.S. and others, according to the ATA. North Korea also uses its military abilities to threaten U.S. forces and citizens in South Korea.
Iran
Threats from Iran come from their malign influence activities, large conventional military forces, and developing cyber capabilities. Iran has a robust missile capability, and also continually attempts to develop networks within the U.S. (seeking to target those believed responsible for the killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Commander, Qasem Soleimani, in January 2020). Iran also continues to press the U.S. to leave Israel, and its ongoing challenges because of those regional tensions are inhibiting Iran’s capabilities. As stated in the report, its “consistently underperforming economy and societal grievances will also continue to test the regime domestically.”
ODNI included a special note on the Middle East, stating that the Israel-Hamas conflict, sparked by the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, has derailed the diplomatic progress and cooperation generated by the Abraham Accords. The situation in Gaza, as well as Israel-Hizballah and Israel-Iran dynamics, is expected to remain volatile.
Growing Cooperation Among Adversaries
A particularly concerning trend highlighted in the report is the increasing cooperation, trade networks, and mutual support systems being built between adversarial nations. These relationships have “strengthened their individual and collective capabilities to threaten and harm the United States, as well as improved their resilience against U.S. and Western efforts to constrain or deter their activities.” As this cooperation broadens and deepens, the more it intensifies the security risks to the U.S.
For Russia and North Korea, for example, their “mutual defense pact” is “yielding financial benefit, diplomatic support, and defense cooperation.” Russia is providing increasing levels of support for North Korea’s nuclear status, and “North Korea has sent munitions, missiles, and thousands of combat troops to Russia to support the latter’s war against Ukraine.” This type of collaboration is strengthening their positions against the United States, increasing the potential for hostilities with one adversary to draw in others, and pressuring other global actors to choose sides.
The ODNI 2025 Annual Threat Assessment is meant to serve as a critical tool for policymakers, warfighters, and domestic law enforcement personnel to understand and respond to the complex threats facing the nation in the coming year. You can read the full assessment here.