In an era where extreme weather events are becoming the new norm, the terminology surrounding climate anomalies holds crucial significance. Let’s delve into an insightful explanation to demystify the concept.
Every region across the globe experiences characteristic weather events and specific climate variable behaviors. These recurring events form the baseline of what is deemed “normal.” Within this normalcy, occasional extremes are expected. However, the landscape of normality is undergoing transformation due to climate change. The frequency, intensity, and duration of individual events are being altered in a trend that anticipates substantial changes in the future. Thus, the first step is to comprehend the existing climate in any region, establishing a reference for climate normality.
The term “climate normal” refers to the long-term mean of any climate variable, typically calculated over a minimum of 30 years of data. For climate change studies, the period between 1961 and 1990 is recommended as the “normal reference period” due to its stability. In other contexts, averages for the last three decades serve as a reference point. Climate normals serve dual purposes: firstly, as a benchmark for comparing recent or current observations, and secondly, as a tool to predict the most likely conditions in a specific location.
Once the normal climate information is established, a comprehensive analysis of deviations from it can be conducted using the concept of climate anomalies. These anomalies represent variations from the established climate normal in a specific month, season, or year, enabling the identification of deviations from typical climate behavior. Climate anomalies are categorized as a type of climate index, with numerous indices designed to enhance the understanding of climate variations.
As climate change propels an increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of climate extremes, the number of associated disasters rises accordingly. The current challenges faced by disaster and climate risk management necessitate a collaborative effort from research, operations, implementation, and policymaking communities. It is imperative for all disaster risk reduction (DRR) actors to possess a comprehensive understanding of key climate and risk concepts. Distinguishing between climate normals and climate anomalies is fundamental for establishing a robust policy basis for DRR and fostering risk-informed development.
In conclusion, navigating the intricacies of climate anomalies provides a roadmap to strengthen the foundation for disaster and climate risk management. The technical guidance provided in the “Technical Guidance on the Application of Climate Information for Comprehensive Risk Management” serves as a valuable resource for those seeking a deeper insight into this critical subject.
Read the full report at UNDRR, here.
