Targeted violence and terrorism continue to pose an urgent threat to public safety and national security. Ranging from school shootings to acts of mass violence, targeted violence and terrorism inflict not only devastating loss of life, but severe economic, psychological, and societal costs. Far from being cold and actuarial, a clear-eyed understanding of the costs of violence and the cost-effectiveness of violence prevention will help decision-makers allocate more resources to life-saving prevention programs before tragic acts of targeted violence occur.
The human and financial toll of targeted violence is staggering. The 1995 Oklahoma City bombing resulted in 168 fatalities and $652 million in losses according to preliminary estimates following the attack. Research estimates the cost of the 2009 Fort Hood shooting at $115 million, the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing at $500 million, and the 2016 Pulse Nightclub shooting at $425 million. Lesser violent tragedies bear a significant cost as well, with a single homicide creating a societal cost of $10M-$20M. These figures represent a combination of medical expenses, emergency response, mental health treatment, property damage, economic disruption, and lost revenues, highlighting the profound economic consequences of violence, in addition to lives lost and the lasting mental health effects endured by survivors and communities.
Beyond financial costs, exposure to targeted violence can lead to negative mental health outcomes. In one study, researchers found that local exposure to a fatal school shooting increased antidepressant use among youth by over 21%. In a second study, researchers estimate that approximately 28% of mass shooting survivors develop PTSD, and one-third develop acute stress disorder, increasing the demand for mental health services and support. In another study, researchers found that exposure to a shooting led to increases in chronic absenteeism and an increase in the likelihood of grade repetition. They estimate that survivors face estimated lifetime earnings losses of $5.8 billion annually.
At the community level, mass shootings result in job losses, reduced business activity, and depressed housing markets. One study found that in targeted counties, mass shootings reduced the number of establishments and jobs, significantly decreased total earnings and earnings per job, and that housing prices decreased by approximately 3% in the years following a mass shooting.
The cost of traditional counterterrorism and security spending is astronomical. Estimates place the annual U.S. government domestic counterterrorism budget at more than $100 billion. RAND estimates that at a national level, total annualized costs on security spending in K-12 public schools amount to $20.5 billion in 2022 dollars. These include costs like security personnel, surveillance technology, metal detectors, and alarm systems. While investments in physical security play an important role, experts have noted that spending in prevention initiatives, for example investments in school counselor staffing, pales in comparison.
Criminal justice responses, though necessary, are resource-intensive. The estimated cost of criminal justice expenditures, covering investigation, prosecution, incarceration, and post-release supervision, can total between $2.8 million and $3.4 million per perpetrator.
Prevention as a Cost-Effective Solution
Investing in prevention offers a sustainable and cost-effective approach to reducing the impacts of targeted violence. Not only does prevention save lives, but it reduces the strain on law enforcement, emergency services, healthcare systems, and the criminal justice system.
The Department of Homeland Security’s Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships (CP3), previously the office leading the national prevention mission, saw signs of success through the Targeted Violence and Terrorism Prevention (TVTP) Grant Program. Before 2025, the office had awarded nearly $90 million to organizations across 41 states and the District of Columbia, reaching an estimated 28 million individuals through funded training programs. The office estimated that based on funding from FY20 to FY23, the average cost per person engaged by TVTP grant work came to $2.50.
According to the Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships Fiscal Year 2024 Report to Congress, from FY20 to FY23 the TVTP Grant Program provided $8.1M to fund 1172 multidisciplinary interventions at an average investment of $6900 per intervention. Only 6.5% (77 of 1172) of the interventions resulted in a referral to law enforcement. The other 93.5% (1095 of 1172) of the interventions were managed either by the grantee or referred to external resources, including mental and behavioral health professionals and social workers. Of the 1095 cases that were not referred to law-enforcement, if only one of those interventions had prevented a mass casualty attack, an untold number of lives would have been lost, at a potential cost of hundreds of millions.
Although CP3’s footprint in the prevention space has been significantly diminished in recent months, prevention remains a vitally important investment for communities across the United States, and many state governments, local governments, school districts and workplaces continue to invest in prevention. By investing in targeted violence prevention, we can mitigate the enormous human, economic, and social costs of these tragedies, while strengthening community resilience and reducing the strain on criminal justice and emergency response resources.